Posted on 03/13/2005 4:40:24 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
If diplomatic efforts fail, in the worst case, it may be imposed south of Pyongyang.
(Seoul-Yonhap News) Lee Kwi-won - A proposal is drawing keen attention, which says that, if N. Korean nuclear problem turns for the worst, No Flying Zone could be imposed on N. Korean territory.
The proposal has been made by Professor A(anonymized) from Staff University(?) under DoD, who attended the 46th Annual International Studies Meeting, held in Hawaii at the beginning of this month.
Dr. Cho Sung-ryol at the Institute for International Affairs Research, who attended the meeting, said on (Mar.) 13th that Professor A, who has good inside knowledge of DoD, commented that some DoD officials are studying a proposal to impose a No Flying Zone south of Pyongyang.
This proposal of setting up No Flying Zone is akin to the one imposed on Iraq following U.N. Security Council Resolution after the Gulf War I in '91. It aims to shoot down N. Korean planes violating the No Flying Zone.
According to Professor A, while DoD agrees with the principle of peaceful resolution of N. Korean nuclear problem, they are studying the proposal if the worst case scenario develops and they are asked to submit it as one of options.
Dr. Cho concluded that such a remark by Professor A is "way too premature while international communities are trying hard to resolve the issue in a peaceful and diplomatic manner."
However, he also said, "They could show interests in imposing No Flying Zone instead of preemptive attack because it would be practically difficult to seek out and destroy N. Korean nuclear weapons if N. Korea did possess them." No Flying Zone Might be Imposed, if N. Korean Situation Deteriorates
/end my translation
If an insurrection breaks out and gathers enough popular support in this area, it could literally become N. Korean equivalent of Kurdistan. This area has been hard-hit by famine. There is no love left between them and Kim Jong-il regime. We also get to suppress their missiles.
Maybe we could impose No Flying Zone in two phasese. First, impose it south of Pyongyang, thus preventing any chance of delivering nukes via airplanes. Next, impose it on N.E. N. Korea.
Either No Flying Zone could trigger serious military conflict, though.
Ping!
I already try to avoid flying south of Pyongyang.
No fly = War.
At this point, sneezing towards the DMZ would trigger a war, according to Lil' Kim.
thanks for the ping.
"I can fry higher than an eego"
All Professor Anoonymous needs is an Air Force.
I think that would be an act of war that NK would not ignore.
Whether I agree with it or not!
LOL!!!!
<< Get out of my airspace!! >>
All of your airspaces are belong to US!
Bump
<< All Professor Anoonymous needs is an Air Force. >>
And all poor Professor Anoonymous has are a couple or so United States Navy Carrier Battle Groups.
And all NK's airspaces and STILL beyong to US!
"...you can have everything else, but leave Europa alone". -2001 A Space Oddyssy.
I believe that the reaction of the North would be immediate and violent. They would correctly conclude that incremental loss of control of the air would completely undermine their warmaking capabilities. Finding themselves in a classic "use it or lose it" situation, the North would opt to "use it" against Seoul.
This is not to say that I would oppose a "no-fly" zone. I only caution that it must not be imposed without a full appreciation of the consequences, and mobilization of all required resources to deal with those consequences.
Are the B-52s holding at their failsafe points, Mandrake ?
I note that several comments refer to the overall superiority of US aviation (Navy and Air Force) and our ability to quickly suppress North Korean aviation.
While I agree that our forces are capable of taking control of North Korean airspace, it will not be without cost and, more importantly, it will take crucial hours. A no-fly zone would effectively pin the North Korean air forces on the ground.
The North Koreans need to use those forces to buy time even if they are used as a throw-away force. They would be unable to effectively resist the imposition of such a control regime incrementally. Their only hope would be to excalate immediately, and I think that is the course they are most likely to take.
If there were to be a UN resolution authorizing a no-fly zone voted upon in the Security Council, I would look for North Korean military action to follow immediately upon such adoption of such a resolution... But could such a resolution be passed in a body where Russia and China each have a veto? It seems fanciful to me.
"...caution that it must not be imposed without a full appreciation of the consequences, and mobilization of all required resources to deal with those consequences."
Wisest comment on this thread so far......
Like ferinstance, the Northern border of NK is China....and the very very large numbers of non-nuke missiles across NK......do we have the inventory to take them out? I doubt it.
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