China Authorizes Attack on Taiwan; Warns U.S.

cnn.netscape.cnn.com ^ | March 08 2005 | ELAINE KURTENBACH

[crushelits]

China Steps Up Pressure on Taiwan
BEIJING (AP) - China unveiled a law Tuesday authorizing an attack if Taiwan moves toward formal independence, increasing pressure on the self-ruled island while warning other countries not to interfere. Taiwan denounced the legislation as a ``blank check to invade'' and announced war games aimed at repelling an attack.

The proposed anti-secession law, read out for the first time before the ceremonial National People's Congress, doesn't say what specific actions might invite a Chinese attack.

``If possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity,'' Wang Zhaoguo, deputy chairman of the NPC's Standing Committee, told the nearly 3,000 legislators gathered in the Great Hall of the People.

Beijing claims Taiwan, split from China since 1949, as part of its territory. The communist mainland repeatedly has threatened to invade if Taiwan tries to make its independence permanent, and new law doesn't impose any new conditions or make new threats. But it lays out for the first time legal requirements for military action.

Taiwan's leaders warned that the move could backfire by angering the island's voting public.
Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, which handles the island's China policy, said the law gives China's military ``a blank check to invade Taiwan'' and ``exposed the Chinese communists' attempt to use force to annex Taiwan and to be a regional power.''

[sukhoi-30mki]

Problem with the PRC is that many American allies(like Britain,Singapore,Australia & even South Korea) may agree with the US on Taiwan,unless Beijing does something real stupid(like nuking Taiwan or attacking US forces first).For much of the world,Taiwan is looking increasingly expendable.

[sukhoi-30mki]

oops!! I mean't may not agree!!!THey have already made that clear over the last 2-3 years.

[jpsb]

I am clueless, for a while it seemed china was playing good cop, bad cop. But lately the good cop has been silent.

Aside from the military preparations being ready or close enough, could be that China domestic situtation requires a serious dose of nationalism. Nothing like a war to rally the country to it's leadership. Could be that China just wants to steal all the western investments, nothing like a war to allow nationalization of foriegn assets.

My best guess is that CCP is giving in to PLA demands to get hard line on Tiawan.

[maui_hawaii]

They will. I believe it. And they still won't get Taiwan...

[maui_hawaii]

BUMP THAT

[coincheck]

that will not detour china from attacking taiwan or any country who's navy/amphibius assult group is in the way. numbers do count. and our army has been reduced to 9 active duty divisions(one army) and a few independent battalions and brigades, not enough to fight a two front war. technology is good but not good enough to make up for 7 divisions worth of soldiers.
the navy and air force were cut deeper, so they would have a difficult time suppling both fronts. we need numbers to play in this arena. coincheck

[international american]

BTTT

[Williams]

Everyone assumes China will not nuke the United States. I do not. They have plenty enough nukes offshore in subs and on mobile launchers to destroy our society. If we are so sure they won't ratchet that far up, we could use our nuke superiority to wipe out any attack in the Pacific. We won't, precisely because we might lose hundreds of millions and our civilization. We need to stop this war by being certain we can win it on the ground, in the Pacific.

[sukhoi-30mki]

That's the whole point of the state of this relationship-no one has a clear idea about it.Most folks who claim either side is superior find it difficult to substantiate.A lot of people seem to ignore the fact that China actually has 2 options against Taiwan,with the same goal(of protecting Chinese territorial integrity)-one is to go for an all-out invasion,which would be a bloody option even if Uncle Sam stays out.Another option,which a lot of folks forget is military action just to prevent independence & keep the status quo.Now that is already within the PLA's capability spectrum.A few air & missile strikes may force the Taiwanese govt to do a rethink & the rest of the world may also put pressure.Afterall,most important nations,including the US still subscribe to the One-China policy.An all out war will be a significant setback to the PRC militarily & economically.A decisive but limited military strike on Taiwan achieves all of China's goals,while in theory,minimising any economic impact.

[maui_hawaii]

To be blunt,not even the greatest China expert has a clue about the exact nature of the CCP-PLA relationship

Because that stuff is disorganized and put together through secret meetings, winks, and back alley deals. Thats the nature of it. Thats the exact nature of it.

Knowing who is winking at whom is what we don't know.

[Cold Heat]

we need numbers to play in this arena.

This would be a naval engagement, with air support.

They army would sit this out, except to escort the troops that may have made it to the island, back off it. Marines would do that, however.

[Euro-American Scum]

Look for breaking war news-during coverage of the Michael Jackson trial, of course...

Look for breaking Michael Jackson trial coverage during Chinese war coverage. . .

[carl in alaska]

I don't think China is going to attack our Pacific fleet, because we are a major nuclear-armed country. Such an attack would be massively destabilizing and would have unknown consequences for China. China may become bold enough to attack Taiwan and tell us to stay out of this fight or they will nuke America, but that scenario is unlikely. That kind of scenario, although unlikely, would put us in a bad position, so the best course of action for us is to arm Taiwan so they can defend themselves. It's not that easy to cross a 88-mile wide strait and invade an Island nation while being attacked by fighter jets, destroyers, and submarines. (Taiwan has a few subs now and is buying more from us to be delivered in about 5 years.) Ships have this annoying way of sinking when their hulls are breached by air-to-ship missiles and torpedos.

Even after a Chinese sneak attack on Taiwan with missiles, an amphibious invasion would be a tough mission. With our help, Taiwan would be able to anticipate an impending sneak atack and they would move their fighter jets and artillery into hardened underground bunkers before the attack. An attack on Taiwan would also do a lot of economic damage to the world economy, by destroying a great deal of production capacity for electronics. Would China want to deal with all the diplomatic fallout? All this Chinese sabre-rattling may be more of a sign of China's inability to invade and hold Taiwan. If they could actually conquer Taiwan without creating a huge diplomatic mess and risking a military disaster, they would have done it already.

[sukhoi-30mki]

As of now atleast,China has only one SSBN armed with IRBMs,whose acoustic profile can be tracked from Mars & only a handful of mobile launchers.But your right,they are building a fleet of atleast 3-6 SSBNs which can strike the continental US,without having to go into the deep Pacific & it is safe to assume that most of their future IRBMs & ICBMs will be either road or rail mobile(having the world's biggest rail network helps).Plus their SU-30 fighter bombers are shielded from any strike in their bases in Tibet or the Gobi desert & can strike India,Japan or US facilities given their long-range.

[Moorings]

"Face saving" is the real danger if there is a conflict. If our navy gives them a nice whooping near Taiwan, they may not be willing to limp back home and lick their wounds after a limited skirmish. This will be bad for their totalitarian regime back home, and will be seen as weakness. They will be willing to sacrifice a lot to save their image of strength, and thereby their positions of power at home.

[The Westerner]

I would really like to read your posts. Could you possibly punctuate with spaces between sentences?

[ASA Vet]

Please examine the surface between Taiwan and Communist China.
Where would you use Army or USMC Divisions?

As has been pointed out by several other posters on this thread, this will be a Navy and USAF operation.
7, 70, or 700 US Army Divisions aren't needed to stop ships and airplanes.

One US SSBN could stop any such invasion if we decided it was that important.

[Cold Heat]

I don't see this as particularly worrisome IMO.

Taiwan got the full attention of China a few moths ago with their saber rattling.

The Chinese response in just now coming. We tamped down the saber rattling during Powell's tenure, and now we only need to make sure the Taiwanese don't reciprocate to the Chinese response to the Taiwanese agitations..

All in a days work:-)

[jpsb]

I always figured that China was going to take Taiwan by building so much military might and economic might that no one, not even the USA would resist a Hong Kong like settlement. Seemed like the Chicoms were doing exactly that, so this new saber rattling was unexpected by me. But could be that the Chicoms want to bloody the US Navy nose too. Leaving not doubt as to which nation rules the south china and adjacent waters.