The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

[Paul_Denton]

What I mean is a nuclear arsenal to deter China from even invading. The whole point is the status of MAD. Would china risk mutually assured destruction?

[GOP_1900AD]

It's even worse than that. For all but a few Western headquartered companies, it is the *promise* of future riches. Most companies selling in the PRC have yet to see major ROI. The biggest benificiaries thus far are those who have sourced there, allowing some incremental cost reduction, but, far short of what was predicted during the early 90s when everyone started to re source from the Americas (as well as other Asian locations) to the PRC. So even there, given the reduction in quality, the ROI may be negligable. But having gone through all the trouble to bring up suppliers (and their own joint venture factories) in the PRC, they now are trying to stick it out, asking for greater cost reductions while beating up the supply chain on quality. What a mistake it has all been .....

[GOP_1900AD]

Good point there, regarding Sino-Russian coordination. The likes of which has not been seen since the early 1950s.

[Paul_Denton]

The Iowa's were fairly heavily modernized when they were reactivated back in the 1980's, including the addition of Harpoon and Tomahawk cruise missiles and CIWS defense systems. If they are teamed up with multiple AEGIS cruisers or destroyers for air defense and a frigate or two for anti-submarine protection, they would be a formidable combat platform.

Not only that, but give the cannons modern shells such as RAP (Roacket Assisted Projectile), guided shells and other advanced munitions and they would be formidable too. Plus the big 16 inch guns are just plain awesome.

[Stonewall Jackson]

That would be a good idea. I heard somewhere that the navy was testing a rocket-boosted 16" shell capable of hitting targets almost one hundred miles away. Those shells have a danger-close radius of one thousand yards. Can you imagine coming under bombardment from one or two of these monsters?

Another elderly gunship still in the US arsenal is the old heavy cruiser Des Moines, currently in mothballs in Philadelphia (I believe). While this ship has been out of commission since the 1960's and would require an extensive modernization before it could re-enter service, its nine 8-inch guns are each capable of firing fifty rounds a minute. Her sister-ship Newport News saw service off Vietnam and was deeply feared and respected by the North Vietnamese for her accuracy and firepower.

[Jeff Head]

Seeing the Chinese produce two and three units a year on EIGHT new major combatant classes is sobering. If they keep that production rate up, or increase it, we are going to see first a lot of their vessels, then a lot of their ordinance in the very near future.

Now, until they can crack our hard nut, the CBG protected by AEGIS and SSN's, they arer still going to suck hind tit and end up on the bottom. But, if they come up with say a combination of Sunburn/Moskit supersonic SSMs in numbers and a credible super-cavitating submersable threat, we could be into some serious hurt.

Thanks for weighing in.

[Jeff Head]

We are going to have those type of shells on the smaller, 5-inch guns of the DDX. They were highly discussed for the Iowas and I do not believe there is any reason we could not make it work. We just have to have the will. The Iowas may yet see more service. I know our adversaries, including the Russians, were scared to death of them after their refit in the 80's under Reagan.

[killjoy]

In the late 1970s, under guidance from the USSR, Vietnamese troops took over Cambodia and eventually made incursions into Thailand. Lacking the once present US troops and bases, Thailand went to the PRC for help.

Do you have a source for this?

[Paul_Denton]

its nine 8-inch guns are each capable of firing fifty rounds a minute.

Thats almost as fast as the 5 inch guns currently in use. The Navy is indeed getting interested in guns again. Check this out.

The BB64 Wisconsin is in Class B mobilization status, but I do not know what that means. BB61 Iowa shares that status.

[killjoy]

I wonder why Taiwan bans guns? They have very good reason to allow people to own them. I hope some day they are legalized there.

Some of the Aboriginals do own guns and use them for hunting. It is quite common to hear gunshots up in the mountains.

[Jeff Head]

It was a straw man to begin with. I do not believe the Chinese ever had, or have any intention of their masses rising up out of the abject poverty they are in and becoming the vast market western companies drooled over. They were just led to believe it would be that way. They are too useful for cheap labor and much easier to control.

Having been over there in the late 1990's and into 2000, if you look closely, I'll wager dollars to doughnuts that the vast majority of the individuals benefiting from the new found Chinese propserity are noneother than the same old communist party members from the old Maoist system. Problem is, when you have 7 or 8% of 1.3 billion, you are talking about 100 million individuals who are looking good. They can put on quite the show...and they do.

[Paul_Denton]

Well I hope some time that expands to all of the people there. Glad to know at least somone of them have guns.

[Last Dakotan]

Fascinating, thanks for the post.

[s_asher]

"True free market competition does work wonders when both parties are playing pretty much on the same ground and from the same "free" perspective. The so-called "Free Trade" we are conducting with China is decidedly not the case. They plan to bury us and we are fueling their drive to do it."

If China or any other country feels that they can "win" by subsidies or fixed conversion rate, I'd argue that protectionist policies (such as subsidies) will ultimately make you less competitive in the marketplace, because the subsidies will be pulled sooner or later.

The goal of a competition is to win - at the expense of your competitor. The Chinese are gunning for us because that's what they're supposed to do - compete. And we've already half buried ourselves through ridicious socialist policies.

In 1907, a 19 year boy named Jim Casey borrowed $100 to start a message delivery business. He worked hard and hired local kids to make deliveries on foot or bicycle. By offering lower prices and adding services (food delivery), the company grew over its competition and later became UPS.

Today if a 19 year old wants to start a delivery business in San Francisco, he'd have to pay $8.62/hr minimum wage to hire some kid just to deliver a $10 pizza down the street:
http://www.sfgov.org/site/mayor_page.asp?id=28520

We could ban trade with China today and it wouldn't do a bit of good in making us more competitive. The jobs will simply shift from China to Vietnam or elsewhere. The only way to "win" is to excel above our competition. So far all I've seen are losers who are afraid to admit that they're overpaid and need to update their job skills.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Too many on these threads using emotion instead of facts

Because emotion is easy and facts are hard.

[B4Ranch]

"they are studying it and learning", while America maintains a collective amnesia of world war and communism. It seems we have achieved it from the legislature to the mid schools.

[judicial meanz]

Class B mobilization status means they can be ready for deployment in 20-120 days of a crisis, even though they are currently tourist attractions.

That was one of the conditions of their museum display status.

In my opinion, they are still in that category as an offset to the Peter the Great class of Russian ballte cruisers, which are in commission and active.

[B4Ranch]

>>Too many on these threads using emotion instead of facts to demonize a great American success story.<<

"We're an "empire," ain't we? Sure we are. An empire without a manufacturing base. An empire that must borrow $2 billion a day from its competitors in order to function. Yet the delusion is ineradicable. We're No. 1. Well...this is the country you really live in:"

When you are done reading ask yourself if these are the characteristics of a persevering winner or a nation that is in reverse? Are we striving for continued superiority or servitude to the United Nations?

[Mulder]

Thanks for the update Jeff. You look to the future in your assessments, instead of the past like so many posters here.

Just because our Navy is superior to China's today, doesn't mean that will be so 20 years from now.

Who will manufacture our ships in 20 years? American plants are being shipped overseas, and American factory workers are being told that their skills are outdated and unwanted

Who will design the new technology for our military? American engineering jobs are being shipped overseas at an alarming rate. There is little incentive for American college students to study the hard sciences anymore.

Who will make the innovations necessary to maintain America's technological advanage? Any American school student that shows any signs of stubborn independence or excessive creativeness (all traits needed for new inventions), is either drugged or put in jail.

And so on.

The Freedom that made America great is virtually non-existent. We have become little more than a nation consisting of rule makers, enforcers, and slaves.

We *might* have been able to get away with that (for awhile anyway) while the rest of the world functioned under communism, the most unefficient economic system ever invented; but we will *not* be able to get away with it since China has transitioned to the relatively efficient system of facism.

A nation of 1.3 billion slaves (China) trumps a nation of 300 million slaves (Amerika).

Barring some sort of massive change in the mindset of most Americans, the Republic is over. China will have her way with us, as if this nation was a drunken, drug-addicted street whore.

I suppose in retrospect, things had to return to the normal state of human affairs. Might makes right. Money and power are everything. Worship the state and the men who run the state.

America was but a brief anomaly. It was nice while it lasted.

My only desire at this point is that the fools and traitors responsible for our demise live to experience the fruits of the efforts; instead of just leaving their kids and grandkids to experience it.

Thanks again for all your efforts to stop the tidal wave. Yes, it is still worth fighting for, even if we lose in the end.

[Eastbound]

Ominous! Thanks for the ping, Jeff.