Al-Qaeda's Completed Warning Cycle - Ready to Attack?

The Jamestown Foundation ^ | March 3, 2005 | by Michael Scheuer

[Calpernia]

ping

[Joe Bonforte]

I can't decide if this is a legitimate warning, or if the intelligence community is convinced that there will be another attack of some kind at some point, and just wants to keep us on our toes.

The analysis in this article seems a bit stretched, so I'm inclined to the latter position right now. I believe if bin Laden had the assets to strike, he would have already used them, before all the stuff that's happened in the Middle East. After all, no matter what happens in the USA now, the Islamofascists are against the wall in most of the Middle East.

[nutmeg]

bump

[Archangelsk]

Considering our porous borders, I would take this threat seriously. Also, any successful operation has at least a few backups behind it.

[Dog Gone]

He is the once anonymous author of Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror

Oh, him.

[El Gato]

I urge you to become Muslims

Before that happens, we will see you in Hell sir!

Not that we will be there you understand, we'll just see to it that you are there. The heat will be a nice change from your cave in the mountains. :)

[aculeus]

He is the once anonymous author of Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror and Through Our Enemies' Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam, and the Future of America.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Ping to a good article.

[gopwinsin04]

I've heard from a higher up that the beat cops in NYC all have been issued gas masks..be careful out there!

[usgator]

Islamofascists are against the wall in most of the Middle East

Which may put them in a desperation mode.  I agree with your posting, though.  Considering what is going on in the ME, if he had the means, he would attack and let the consequences playout afterward.

I wouldn't put much stock in this theory ... how many of these have we heard?

[Zeppo]

Yep... His comments need to be evaluated in light of his, um, history, for lack of a better word... The article makes a lot of ungrounded assumptions, stretching his interpretation in ways that a more careful observer would find troubling.

[TexasCowboy]

Thank you, granny.

This article deserves the attention of the whole ping list.

I, for one, am not blowing this threat off.

[Diogenesis]

Consider the source:

CIA-Head who was SUPPOSED to get Osama:
"I've known where Osama-my GREAT hero has been for years.
Why, if Osama only had the right lipstick he could easily replace
that American lowlife George Washington."

Even more incredibly, Scheuer's missives indicate that while at the CIA
he also had a big role to play in telling military officers
to ignore President Bush.

"Scheuer ... even goes so far as to call on America's
generals to resign rather than execute orders that
"they know [...] will produce more, not less, danger to their nation".

A full and very important thread on this is here

[DC Bound]

Bin Laden accepted these criticisms and in mid-2002 began a series of speeches and actions to remedy the shortcomings and satisfy his Islamist critics before again attacking in the United States.

The author would have strengthened his claims if he would have given evidence of the above. The article is premised on the immanency of the next attack due to a "speech cycle"--but the evidence seems to conflict with itself a bit. He compares the present round of speeches to the ones before 9/11, arguing they are the same. Then he cites the criticism Bin Ladin endured from Muslims to show the new speeches are different. Then he assumes this proves the next attack is near. The logic is unimpressive. Thus, like you, I am leaning toward the latter--they just want to keep us on our toes.

[EBH]

I agree, that his theory is a bit twisted, but no more than my own...

as things get shakin' up in the ME with protesters and gov.ts being overthrown, there's a cache of deadly weapons that are unaccounted for and these can/probably will fall into the wrong hands. It could be bin Laden is waiting for the right time to 'get' his weapons from Hezzbollah... Desperation or a calculated move in the game of chess?

[Casloy]

I can't decide if this is a legitimate warning, or if the intelligence community is convinced that there will be another attack of some kind at some point, and just wants to keep us on our toes.

I don't think the intelligence community cares if we are on our toes or not. They do analysis and report it to the powers that be. How the rest of the government interprets it is up to them.

[appalachian_dweller]

Thanks for th ping Calpernia. Interesing anlyisys.

Here's what I find interesting:

>> These recent statements mirror the non-specific statements that were issued by bin Laden and Zawahiri before earlier attacks -such as 9/11 (2001), The USS Cole (2000), and the East Africa Embassy bombings (1998)- and suggest that bin Laden believes he has satisfied his post-9/11 critics. <<


Our enemies are patient. I'm convinced that they are just biding their time before the next hit. Our southern border has been wide open for a long time leading me to believe that the cells are in place; however, it could be years before another major hit. They are just waiting for us to go back to sleep.

[Calpernia]

You see this thread?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1356607/posts

[appalachian_dweller]

Hey Tex!!! I'm back online dude!!! Thanks for the ping.

I'm with you. I'm taking this seriously.