CA: Drawing new districts for 2006 not possible, some experts say

Monterey Herald ^ | 3/3/05 | Steve Lawrence - AP

[NormsRevenge]

SACRAMENTO - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has run out of time in his bid to redraw California's legislative and congressional districts for the 2006 elections, even some supporters of his effort say.

"The governor's office just dilly dallied around for too long," said Tony Quinn, a former adviser to Assembly Republicans on redistricting. "You can't do it when there's not enough time."

The Republican governor is pushing both a legislative constitutional amendment and a ballot initiative that would take away the Legislature's power to draw the districts and give that duty to a panel of retired judges.

Both measures would require the ex-judges to redraw districts for the 2006 elections, a step that Schwarzenegger says would make races for the Legislature and Congress more competitive.

He's complained repeatedly, after campaigning for several Republican candidates for the Legislature, that none of the 153 congressional and legislative seats on the ballot last year changed parties.

Schwarzenegger plans to call a special election later this year in hopes voters will approve his redistricting plan and measures to eliminate traditional public employee pensions, lengthen probationary periods for new teachers and, perhaps, require automatic budget cuts when state expenses outstrip revenue.

But the most likely date for that election, Nov. 8, would leave very little time to put new districts in place for the June 2006 primary. An earlier election is unlikely because Schwarzenegger's allies wouldn't have enough time to collect the signatures needed to put the initiative on the ballot, election officials say.

The ex-judges would have to be appointed within 20 days after adoption of either the initiative or the legislative measure, which would also have to go on the ballot if approved by lawmakers.

But those measures wouldn't be officially adopted until the election results were certified by county and state officials, a process that can take more than a month, said Conny McCormack, the Los Angeles County registrar of voters and the president of the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials.

"What if it's close? What if there's a re-count?" she said.

That certification process could delay selection of the panel at least until the end of December. It could take even longer than that under the initiative, which would require the Legislature to pick the ex-judges who would draw the new lines, said Quinn.

"This is a Legislature that never gets a budget done on time," he said. "The notion that they would appoint these judges in 20 days won't happen."

There almost certainly would be lawsuits challenging whatever districts the panel came up with and the lines would also have to be approved by the U.S. Justice Department to ensure they complied with the federal Voting Rights Act, Quinn said.

Paul McKaskle, who twice served as chief counsel for panels of retired judges who drew new districts, said it took two months for the former judges to adopt new districts after the 1990 census and a little longer than that after the 1970 census.

"You can draw them pretty fast, especially with the modern equipment," he said. "I think two months is certainly doable, less than that."

But candidates can begin the process of getting on the June 2006 ballot next Jan. 2, and legislative candidates have to file declarations of intent to run in next year's elections by Feb. 8, said Caren Daniels-Meade, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office.

To do that, they need to know in which districts they'll be running, she added.

County officials had five months to prepare for the 2002 primary after legislators approved new districts in 2001 to reflect population changes revealed by the 2000 census, and that was barely enough time to redraw precincts and do other pre-election work, McCormack said.

Even then, 20 percent of the sample ballots Los Angeles County sent out didn't list the voter's polling place.

"If we have less than (five months) it's going to be a huge problem," she added.

Rob Stutzman, Schwarzenegger's communications director, says the administration recognizes there are problems in getting the new districts drawn for next year. But "we haven't totally given up hope for 2006."

If new districts can't be drawn in time for 2006, they should be put in place for 2008 elections, Stutzman said. Waiting until after the 2010 census to draw new lines would mean that new districts wouldn't be used until 2012, he added.

But Assemblyman Tom Umberg, a Democrat from Santa Ana and chairman of the Assembly Elections and Redistricting Committee, said drawing new lines for 2006 and particularly 2008 would require using outdated population figures, unless the administration was willing to pay for a new census.

"Federal law requires that congressional districts be nearly exactly equal (in population)," he said. "I'm not sure how you do it (with 6- or 8-year-old population figures)."

Schwarzenegger, in a conference call with editorial writers Thursday, sidestepped a question about whether he would be willing to wait until 2012 for new districts. He said at one point that he wasn't planning to water down his proposals, but he also said he was waiting for counterproposals from Democrats.

[goldstategop]

There's time. The complaints come from incumbents concerned with job security rather than doing what's right. All this carping and "oh woe, is me" comes come the same folks who've stalled on cleaning up house in Sacramento. They're not part of the solution; they've become part of the problem.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)