Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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National Warning Map

Clickable Map Here

Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

National Radar Loop

National Radar Summary

U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[NorCalRepub]

I think most of our storms peter out by the time they hit the midwest.......most of there storms seem to blow down from Canada.......9 ft of water has got to be double in snow pack I would think.......I'm off to go BBQ now.....LOL

[Howlin]

How about you?

[mewzilla]

Where would I rank the potential of this system? At least in the same category as the January 22 2005 storm, but more likely comparable to such memorable events as March 1962, December 1992, and January 1996. Keep in mind that much of the snow produced will be wet-ratio type, which can greatly affect power transmission and roof integrity.

Well, that's not good.

=8-0

[all4one]

"I wish the Philly weatherpeople would get off the stick and give us some decent info.."

IIRC it was a year or two ago that one of them went out on a limb and predicted about a foot of snow. Tons of drama and such...and then there was barely an inch. So all the Philly weather people are skittish about making, and standing by a big prediction. But no matter an inch or 2 feet you can look forward to them giving no concrete info. until it is all over and done! At least that way they can't lose!

[farmfriend]

Once in a blue moon, I'm actually glad I live in CA.

[Gabz]

I thought you were that far inland - I remember the discussion about even though you are practically due south of me, you were further inland.

We got nailed here with the storm the day after Christmas, and we weren't supposed to. Not that we need anymore, but I would much prefer this only to be rain for us.

The ground is no longer frozen, not because it has warmed up all that much, but it is so saturated, it can't get cold enough to freeze.

[Oorang]

Excellent maps and information, thank you.

[Mo1]

We seem to be out of the loop this year; how much have you had already?

We haven't really had a lot of snow this year when compared to previous years

Rained mostly in Nov & Dec .. freezing cold in Jan

it snowed 5 inches on Thurday .. had about 6 inches the week before that

It's just that's it been a REALLY long winter .. I'm past cabin fever and now I just HATE WINTER!!!

[Brad’s Gramma]

From wet and soggy and muddy Southern California, I pray that all of my FRiends on the OTHER side of the country are safe!!

[leadpenny]

Just put together a pot of homemade chicken vegetable soup and TCM is still playing the Oscars. What more could I want? Let it snow. "Casablanca" comin' up!

[xcamel]

This one also seems to back it up with snowfall predictions.

[NCjim]

Except for our gridlock a while back - took me over 10 hours to go from RTP to my daughter's school to within two miles of my home in north Raleigh where I could park my car and walk the remaining two miles.

And to make matters worse afterward, our illustrious mayor promised, among other things, to do a better job of forecasting the weather in the future! I felt like writing him that he sounded like he was running for re-election... except that the election was over months ago!

[mewzilla]

It's just that's it been a REALLY long winter .. I'm past cabin fever and now I just HATE WINTER!!!

Next year I'm gonna try to bribe the groundhog.

[Ryzaroo]

Yeah I hear you...heck I'm 2 1/2 hours from the coast and yet I always hear that Baltimore is on the coast.

The way it normally is with the weather forecast here though is that if they say it's going to snow big time...it never does...and considering I have to haul into the city no matter what the weather ( work at Johns Hopkins)...I shudder at the thought of a lot of snow....so bring on the rain!

[Gabz]

Philly's in the white area.....

[Mo1]

and January 1996

Oh good grief .. my area got 33 inches of snow that storm

Oh please please please tell me this storm isn't that bad

Purdy Please

[Tax-chick]

Yuck. We've had 2-3" of rain in the last week, but the ground is so hard here that it just runs off. My dad is coming up from Florida next Saturday, but it would be okay to have some snow early this week!

[Gabz]

Nothing but rain as far as I can tell and that is why I'm totally bent out of shape with all this crapola about the COAST..........parts of Virginia and Maryland are going to get hammerred....but the COAST is going to probably get nothing more than rain.

[Dan from Michigan]

Ruh roh. I'm right near the border of the blue and yellow.

[who knows what evil?]

"historic" is a little dramatic for this expected event. it wont even come remotely close to the storm earlier in the year.

The NWS and the Weather Channel are getting as bad as the MSM...anything in excess of a three-inch snowfall is referred to as a "storm" nowadays. I'd rather see rain here in New Hampshire...average highs this time of year should be in the upper 30's, not the upper 20's. Oh, well...time to move.