Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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National Warning Map

Clickable Map Here

Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

National Radar Loop

National Radar Summary

U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[jolie560]

Very heavy,steady rain all day here in Jacksonville. Wind gusts 30-40. Flood-prone areas are already flooded. Power went out briefly this morning. 2:30 pm EST

[dennis1x]

"historic" is a little dramatic for this expected event. it wont even come remotely close to the storm earlier in the year.

[Dat Mon]

Gary?...hell Ill get Ann to 'correct' you dude ;0)

[nwctwx]

"historic" is a little dramatic for this expected event. it wont even come remotely close to the storm earlier in the year.

The storm earlier in the year bottomed out at 980mb, this one is already 997mb... in the Gulf of Mexico. It will easily bottom out as low or lower than the February blizzard. A major difference here is that the February blizzard mmainly affected Boston, SE MASS and Cape Cod with "historic" snows, everywhere else... it was a "run of the mill" event.

[Fiddlstix]

[Peach]

That's an awful lot of snow per hour. I hope it doesn't strand people at work.

We lived in CT when the Governor closed all roads for 3 days, except emergency vehicles. We JUST got home from work in time.

[Malacoda]

I wish the Philly weatherpeople would get off the stick and give us some decent info about expected totals!

Right now, between CBS3, ABC6, and NBC10, I've heard anything from "1 to 3, turning to rain -- nothing to worry about" to "12 to 24! OMGWTF! The sky is falling!"

I have to teach Monday night, and I'd love to know if I should anticipate a closing, and a restructure of all my class stuff.

[xcamel]

GFS and MRF are coming into agreement - I'm predicting 12+ for greater capital district of NY

here

[nwctwx]

Has our friend Walter Drag weighed in?

I haven't seen him today, but something tells me he will try to chime in before the storm gets up here. Paul Kocin posted before the February blizzard, I'm hoping to see him give us some insight as well. :)

[NCjim]

Here is the complete set of maps - caution - not for dial-up!

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=5cc59a4402c0775d60ab586533fe2745&showtopic=22490

[Libertarian4Bush]

Gary Aldrich is looking for you.

ha! good luck - I don't even know where I am half the time!

[Howlin]

Buckle down!

[TBall]

BR and others did not say anything about the possibility of this on Friday. After reading a FR thread on the two scenarios being Tennessee Valley or East Coast I wanted to see the local forecast. All the area predictions I saw called for rain/snow mix and did not even mention the Nor Easter possibility. At least NOAA presented the two possibilities.

[Howlin]

What about us, Jim?

[Mo1]

Last I heard my area is gonna get 6 to 10 inches of snow

[UCANSEE2]

You may find this helpful.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[nwctwx]

Is it cold enough to snow in southern GA?

Afraid not. It looks like NE GA will get some snow, the high points of SC will as well. Western NC should get a good bit (6-12"+), and same for points north--someone from the Middle Atlantic north will get over 2 feet, easily.

[Gabz]

I forget how far off the coast you are - but so far all the models I've seen, this thing is basically going to ignore the coast really until it hits Philly.

Compared to where I live, DC is not the East Coast. I live ON the east coast.

[Maelstrom]

Please keep us updated and ping me once in awhile dammit.

I must travel the I-81 corridor extensively Monday morning and Monday afternoon

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

Looks like the cold front has reached pretty far south. NE has been getting hammered this year.