Major East Coast Storm Gets Underway

Eastern US Weather Forums ^ | Various: NWS/HPC/NOAA

[nwctwx]

A major to possibly historic snowstorm is now forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm will track northeast along the East Coast Monday and Tuesday bringing very heavy snow and near blizzard conditions to many. The exact track is still uncertain at this time, but the big cities along the megalopolis could be in for a very large event. I put together a few maps to track the system, and will add more shortly.

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National Warning Map

Clickable Map Here

Current East Coast NEXRAD Radar Composite

National Radar Loop

National Radar Summary

U.S. Surface Pressure Map and Radar Overlay

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005
QPF DISCUSSION

...ERN STATES...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND SWEET. FOR THE MOST PART THE MANUAL
DAY1 QPF OVR THE ERN U.S. STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS
MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS
OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART
WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID THE CURRENT GFS IN THE
EARLY PART OF ITS 1200 UTC FCST CYCLE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE DEPTH OF THE GULF LO. TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WILL IMPACT ITS
FCST IS UNCERTAIN. ITS FARTHER WEST SFC LO SOLUTION AS COMPARED
TO THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ALSO DOES NOT LEND SUPPORT TO A
HIGHLY CONFIDENCE FCST. IN ANY CASE...USED THE GFS FOR THE TIMING
OF THE PCPN ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOER FM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY CORRECTION MADE TO THE GFS...WHICH IS
IMPORTANT FOR SNOW LOVERS...IS THE ADDITION TO ITS QPF ON THE NW
SIDE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD. BELIEVE ITS CURRENT FCST DOES NOT STGLY
REFLECT THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LVL CNTR AS DEPICTED BY ITS OWN
MASS FIELD FCSTS. LATEST STLT AND RADAR ALREADY INDCS THAT IT HAS
MISSED THE PCPN DVLPNG OVR THE UPPER TN VLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MID LVL CIRC AND SUSPECT THIS COULD CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFO CONCERNING FROZEN
PCPN.

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[Gabz]

I'm looking for a recipe for that dang groundhog

Possum or squirrel recipes should work.

[nwctwx]

lol, sorry. ;)

[7.62 x 51mm]

Blizzard Ping!

[socal_parrot]

How did I know I'd find you guys here?

[Gabz]

I realize that, and have known that for 20 years -- and have made the same dang complaint for those 20 years.

Don't mind me, I'm crotchedy........not only did I get stuck home most of last week because of the weather, I've had a sick child home as well..........if I can't whine about the weather on an FR thread, where can I???? LOL!!!

[Dont Mention the War]

Where would I rank the potential of this system? At least in the same category as the January 22 2005 storm, but more likely comparable to such memorable events as March 1962, December 1992, and January 1996.

January 1996 in NYC rocked.

[Gabz]

What white area? Please explain

SNOW

[Unknown Freeper]

I have proof that it will not snow anywhere. Mike Seidel from the Weather Channel is in the studio. If there were going to be a disastrous storm somewhere, he would be outside hanging on to a telephone pole for dear life. You all know that he and Jim Cantore are weather disaster magnets. ; )

[xsmommy]

i am supposed to have some serious dental work done tomorrow afternoon, so i have mixed feelings about this. i don't mind staying home but i hate having this dental crap hanging over my head!

[carlr]

The other way around.1"of rain equals approx.10"of snow.Depending on temperature of course.

[Gabz]

Looks like you in luck (or out of luck)

I'm on that tiny spit of VA that sticks south from MD & DE.....and it looks like all rain for us.

[nwctwx]

[carlr]

I'm looking for a recipe for that dang groundhog

On a rotisserie over a wood fire.
Only way to cook meat.

[hipaatwo]

Ping for later.

[Dat Mon]

Got it...thanks.

[LibFreeOrDie]

Latest NWS advisories for New England, specifically New Hampshire (same for CT and MA, but starts at 3PM there; Boston coast will also get 50+ winds):

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
244 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

.ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MID MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY...THEN APPROACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY PRECIPITATION.

NHZ011-012-015-280400-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER AND NASHUA
244 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING.

STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY EVENING AROUND 6 OR 7
PM MONDAY EVENING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
MANCHESTER AND KEENE.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6
TO 12 INCHES BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TUESDAY MORNING.

THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED...AS
THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PROJECTED TRACK AND
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS STORM. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE SPECIFIC STORM TRACK.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT
BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT AT BEST ON ANY
UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE WEIGHT OF
SNOW MAY BRING DOWN POWERLINES AND TREE LIMBS CAUSING SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES. FOR THOSE SHOVELING...BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL NOT TO OVER
EXERT YOURSELF.

HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER
TRAVEL. SOME SECONDARY ROADS MAY BE UNTREATED. THOSE THAT HAVE TO BE
OUT ON THE ROADS WILL NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND ALLOW PLENTY OF
EXTRA TIME.

[all4one]

Thanks Ian for another great post! And thanks for keeping us informed, when our local weather clowns don't have a clue.

[not-alone]

I'm past cabin fever second that, I fell on ice on my front porch Nov 29 and broke both my wrist. for a long time I was lurking again, I was hoping to start driving again this week, but if we get this storm no way.

[Larry Lucido]

...........STRONGLY REFLECTS THE GFS MODEL. THIS MODEL HAS GOOD CONTINUITY NOW FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND FOR THE MOST PART WRONG WITH ITS SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID ...........

Off topic, but why is the Weather Service's cap key perpetually stuck?

[Gabz]

20 minutes from the coast is far different from 2 1/2 hours from the coast.

But you made the distinction....Coastal versus inland. If you're 20 minutes from the water you're coastal, just like me.............Baltimore is not coastal.

These forecasters, when giving all the doom and gloom for (example only) MD & VA, could make life a bit easier by the use of an exclusionary expresion of "except coastal areas"

But I've been making the same complaint for 20 years and have gotten no where, so why should things change now.