Hinchey needs an articulate moderate to liberal Pubbie of the Boelert type whose rich and willing to pump a couple of million of his own money into the race to take Hinchey out. This affair gives such a candidate an opening. Kerry probably carried the district by about 7% as a wild guess.
I'd say it wouldn't even require a Republican of Boehlert's level of RINO-tude. Even a mainstream Republican could beat Hinchey if, as you point out, he had plenty of money.
One person who I think would have an excellent shot at beating Hinchey would be state senator Tom Libous of Binghamton. He's an able politician. Can't say I know exactly where he stands on all the issues, but he is definitely to the right of Boehlert. Might even be pro-life.