The War We Haven't Finished (Kosovo)

NY Times ^ | February 22, 2005 | FRANK C. CARLUCCI

[neverdem]

Washington

WASHINGTON isn't exactly short of foreign policy priorities these days, but before rushing into a list of new tasks for the president's second term, I would like to suggest sorting out an old one: Kosovo.

The world reacted in horror six years ago when the Serbian regime of Slobodan Milosevic embarked on an ethnic cleansing operation against Kosovo's Albanians, forcing 700,000 people, nearly half the population, to flee the province. Reports of massacres and images of mileslong lines of refugees fleeing into neighboring Albania and Macedonia compelled the world to act. The NATO air campaign against Serbia that followed convinced Belgrade to give up its brutal assault, and Kosovo was put under United Nations administration.

And so it remains to this day: an international protectorate, legally part of Serbia, but with a 90 percent ethnic Albanian population that would sooner go to war than submit to Belgrade's rule. Kosovars seek an independent state, and the seemingly endless delays over final-status talks are only causing deep frustration and resentment.

Their discontent is not simply a matter of hurt pride over national sovereignty; Kosovo's unsettled international status has serious repercussions for daily life. Because it is under United Nations administration, Kosovo is in economic limbo: it cannot be part of the international bank transfer system, it is ineligible for sovereign lending from development banks, and it can attract few foreign investors. With 70 percent unemployment, the province is being starved of the commerce it badly needs.

Perhaps most important, the continuing uncertainty creates widespread insecurity among Kosovo's ethnic Albanians, who live with a constant sense of dread that they could return to Serb rule. It is essentially a siege mentality, and it could explode into violence at any time.

This is what happened last March, when Albanians rioted, killing at least 20 and destroying hundreds of Serbian houses and churches. Of course, mounting frustration cannot excuse or justify such a rampage, but the events clearly demonstrated that United Nations administration is not working.

With spring approaching, a repeat performance looks increasingly likely. But this time it would probably be far worse: Kosovo's Serbs may well ask Belgrade to intervene to protect them, which could result in a return to open war in the Balkans. Under these circumstances, the United Nations mission would probably evacuate, leaving behind the remnants of the NATO-led military force and the Kosovo Police Service to maintain security. These forces are not up to the job, and the chaos would be horrible.

How can we avoid such a nightmare? The only solution that makes long-term sense is full independence for Kosovo, and the only question that remains is how to get there.

The best approach would be for Washington and its five partners in the so-called Contact Group - Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Russia - to initiate a process for a final settlement, or Kosovo Accord. (Something along these lines was proposed last month by the International Crisis Group, an independent conflict prevention organization.)

First the powers would have to establish a timeline and some ground rules. The goal would have to be independence for the entire province, and all other options - partition, or union with Albania or slivers of other neighboring states where ethnic Albanians live - would be off the table from the outset. Given the events of last March, the Kosovo Albanians would be informed that that the pace of their progress toward independence will be set by their treatment of Serbs and other minorities.

The drafting process could begin as soon as the United Nations completes its assessment of the Kosovo government this year. Then the Kosovars could start writing a constitution. The new state would have to agree to a few strong guarantees to protect the rights of its minorities - including the presence of international judges on its higher courts and a multinational monitoring presence. Eventually, an international conference and a referendum within Kosovo would add the final stamps of approval. If all goes well, this could be wrapped up by mid-2006.

Getting Security Council approval, or even unanimity within the Contact Group, for this approach could prove tough. Russia sees itself as a protector of Serbia, and could thwart the process. The United States should counter by bringing along as many countries in the European Union as are willing to join us in formally recognizing an independent Kosovo, and hope the Russians accede to the majority will.

It's understandable, considering the events of the last four years, that Kosovo has been left hanging. But the situation is simply too tense to wait around forever.

Frank C. Carlucci, secretary of defense from 1987 to 1989, is chairman emeritus of the Carlyle Group, an investment firm.

[AncientAirs]

THE NEW YORK TIMES, Saturday, February 26, 2005 LETTERS

The Future of Kosovo

To the Editor:

In "The War We Haven't Finished" (Op-Ed, Feb. 22), Frank C. Carlucci states
the well-known fact that last March, Albanians in Kosovo rioted, killing
people and destroying Serbian churches and houses. It is surprising, then,
that instead of calling on the United States to exert pressure about human
rights, he recommends rewarding the Albanian violence by granting
independence to Kosovo. Appeasing the extremists is not the right course of
action.

To gain more responsibilities, the Kosovo Albanians should first have to
prove their commitment to democracy, basic human rights and the rule of law.
So far they have not. Since 1999, 230,000 Serbs have been forced from their
homes, 150 monasteries have been destroyed, and many people have been
killed; the remaining Serbs live in guarded enclaves.

Promising independence to Kosovo now would be a dangerous precedent, sending
the message that expelling members of ethnic minorities pays off. Serbia
remains committed to a multiethnic and multicultural Kosovo that is safe for
all its citizens, to the Security Council Resolution 1244 reaffirming the
territorial integrity of our country and to the standards-before-status
policy, which would assure that Kosovo focused first on achieving the
standards of a democratic society.

Ivan Vujacic
Ambassador of Serbia
and Montenegro
Washington, Feb. 23, 2005

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/26/opinion/l26serbia.html

[jp7879]

Wraith I hope you`ll never see what we saw in Kosovo b/c you`ll never be able to sleep(kids,old women and men over 60 killed) for what??? They woke the Hitler`s ghost up in the Balkan and you are talking about serbs taking it back???Check out some of the pict that are posted online about the crimes that the serbs commited in Kosovo, Bosnia and then rethink about whatever the hell you are saying b/c if something like that happ.. to your relatives ,friends or countrymen I`m sure that you wont even think about beeing a part of Serbia again.Everyone knows who the criminals are just wake up and look at it( the US costitution sais all people are equal.... religion, color )Beeing muslims don`t make people terrorist it`s just the blind ones that wont to look at it like that for different reasons.

[Wraith]

Look Dude I was there in 1999/2000 and worked in an Intel Cell British Sector. I saw plenty, know lots, so save your speech for someone naive like yourself. Its not the Muslim Albanians that is the issue here its the KLA and . Do some homework before you let your lips loose. Do not think that the American Constitution applies in Kosovo because it does not. You can see it on the faces of the helpless Serb, in particular the old people who are routinely butchered for their real estate not to mention sport. The Albanians eat their own and I saw a few of them dump on the road side in and around Pristina. Take your mom and apple pie values and hug them well because they do not apply in Kosovo. You must have been a good cook from some reserve unit with a hero complex. Your knowledge is about as good as the info supplied to CNN...

P.S. I suspect you never get the attention you obviously crave.

[A. Pole]

Perhaps most important, the continuing uncertainty creates widespread insecurity among Kosovo's ethnic Albanians, who live with a constant sense of dread that they could return to Serb rule. It is essentially a siege mentality, and it could explode into violence at any time.

Yeah, Mr. Carlucci wants the Final Solution for the Serbian problem in Kosovo.

[A. Pole]

wraith, carlucci is either naive or foolish to spew that think tanks policy line talk.

Naive innocent? Maybe. See my tagline.

[ma bell]

ouch! ring ring... jp's momma is calling him...run home lil boy.

[getoffmylawn]

I wouldn't expect a response. This guy's either Albanian, Bosnian Muslim or some other sorta flavor of Islamic type character. He sure as hell ain't American. I wouldn't be the least surprised if he owns or collects the "military" patches that the KLA wore on their uniforms. Nuff said.

[ma bell]

You are right, but we can always "page" our resident idiot, ronly bonly laden aka the Great Prophet..ehh?

[Wraith]

I agree their Mr. Lawn. What's that old saying, "if you are going to play with the big dogs don't piss like a puppy." Hope you are well.

[Wraith]

Does anyone know what happend to Wonders?