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Lincoln's crime was in not recognizing the union as a voluntary association of states, and in preserving it by force.

He recognized that at one time, and I think he did later as well. But presented with the reality of the thing, his abstract beliefs succumbed to political and practical motivations. Practically, one does not want to be the President of the United States responsible in history for half the country dissolving. It also seems clear that he did, in fact, have a real and profound affection for the union as a whole.

While I disagree with his choice in the matter, I can understand it. If/when the day comes that Aztlan votes to break off and rejoin Mexico I think many will be burdened with a similar decision between a belief in self-determination and the ballot box and a patriotic demand that our nation remain whole.

I think a lot of bad things came out of Lincoln's choices and fundamentally altered the state of our union by force of arms. I think that his stated justifications are a bit of a reach to say the least given the character of the union. At the same time, I appreciate the benefits of the continental union that he maintained and grateful that it was in place and whole during the 20th century. If it had not, we would be in a bit of a nightmare world. So I cannot blame him overmuch and have to attribute the actual outcome to the will of a power above our own.

Lincoln's interpretation of secession--that it can't be done unilaterally--is perfectly in line with the common law of contracts. Lincoln was not only a great leader, he was a damned good lawyer. If and when Aztlan votes to secede they will have no legal right to go their own way unless and until the remainder of the country agrees and allows them to.

As to the "lot of bad things" you'd care to attribute to Lincoln's choices you can't add up enough of them to amount to a significant fraction of the good that occurred by the elimination of slavery and the maintenance of the Union. Remember that both Britain and France supported the Confederacy because they feared a strong America. Fortunately for them both they lost that fight so we could bail their butts out of two deep holes in the 20th Century.