Lebanese opposition declares intifada

Al Jazeera ^ | 02/18/05 | Al Jazeera

[Pikamax]

Lebanese opposition declares intifada by Christian Henderson Friday 18 February 2005 5:37 PM GMT

Anti-Syrian opposition members have called for an uprising

Using fiery rhetoric Lebanese opposition figures have called for an "independence uprising" against Syria's presence in Lebanon.

After meeting on Friday in a Beirut hotel, they urged the Lebanese people to back a peaceful "independence uprising" – using the word intifada in Arabic, the first time they had used the term.

They also called for parliament to suspend all debate unrelated to the assassination until the truth about who killed former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri emerged.

"This isn't just the opposition," Jumblatt earlier told reporters. "All the Lebanese are with Hariri, a free Lebanon and [a] Syrian withdrawal."

Intifada

"In response to the criminal and terrorist policy of the Lebanese and Syrian authorities, the Lebanese opposition declares the democratic and peaceful intifada [uprising] for independence," said leading opposition figure Samir Frangia after a meeting of leading Lebanese opposition figures.

"We demand the departure of the illegitimate regime," Frangia said, reading a final statement at the home of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.

The opposition demands that Syrian troops withdraw

Jumblatt did not attend the meeting, held four days after al-Hariri's assassination for "security reasons," aides said.

They did not say what kind of protests the uprising would involve, but they did say their actions would be peaceful.

Prime Minister Umar Karami responded to the opposition's demands by saying they amounted to a "coup attempt against the state".

He also refused an international investigation into Hariri's killing.

New dynamic

The Lebanese opposition has changed rapidly since the assassination last Monday and there is a new political dynamic in Lebanon.

While conflict in Lebanon has traditionally occured between the different sects, now the two opposing sides consist of those who support and oppose Syria's involvement in Lebanon.

"It's different from the 1975 patterns," said Nizar Hamzeh, a politics professor at the American University of Beirut, in reference to the political groupings in Lebanon at the start of the 1975-1990 civil war.

The support for the opposition has now broadened in Lebanon

"Now we are really talking about loyalists and oppositions and they are made up of different sects," he told Aljazeera.net.

While the opposition to Syria's presence in Lebanon was initially almost exclusively dominated by Christian groups, the opposition now has a wider base.

With this kind of consensus, it seems the opposition has become emboldened and views this as being the optimum time to step up its campaign to pressure Syria to withdraw the 14,000 troops it keeps in Lebanon.

Dangerous time

However ,analysts said that rash decisions at this sensitive time could result in dire consequences.

"People smell momentum. I just hope people keep their heads a little bit. There is a momentum but this involves so many issues that cannot be resolved over night," International Crisis Group analyst in Beirut Reinoud Leenders told Aljazeera.net.

"I just hope people keep their heads a little bit"

ICG analyst Reinoud Leenders

"The whole prospect for sectarian conflict is very much looming over the whole situation now," he said.

Leenders warned that the Syrian government might seek to dig its heels in if it was under too much pressure to leave Lebanon.

"You can push Syria and at some level if will start to look for different avenues and at some point you can push too much and they can decide to bring the whole house down," he said.

Leenders said that Syria could seek to stir trouble in Lebanon by provoking conflict, perhaps between the 300,000 Palestinian refugees who reside in Lebanon and the Lebanese state.

Real unity?

Rime Allaf, Middle East analyst from the Royal Institute for International Affairs, questioned how long the apparent unity between the different groupings in the opposition would last.

"What agenda do they actually have? Do they have agreements on all the other issues in Lebanon? They are riding on the wave that came after al-Hariri's assassination."

Allaf questioned whether the different factions had anything in common apart from a desire to see the Syrians leave Lebanon.

"Have they got an agreement on what will happen to the Palestinian refugees? Have they got an agreement on what will happen with Hizb Allah?" she asked.

Hamzeh said that while the opposition appeared to be taking on a broader sectarian base, it was really too early to predict what would happen in the long term.

"In [the message of] Friday's prayers of Sunni shaikhs it didn't seem that the Sunni traditional alliance had moved to the alliance of the opposition. The coming two weeks will give final answer for that," he said.

Aljazeera + Agencies By Christian Henderson

[Carling]

Sounds like a death wish to me.

I also love how the Syrians are now the bad guys now as well. These people don't even know who to trust on a daily basis.

Thanks Yassar! (I hope you like hell, because my visions of you burning in it give me strange comfort.)

[wk4bush2004]

I hope they force Syrian troops, and the Lebanese President and Prime Minister (both pro-Syria) out. But Syria isn't going to want to lose its puppet. I think they're going to do whatever is necessary to remain in Lebanon.

[Straight Vermonter]

Now we will see if Mr Goss and the "new" CIA have what it takes to exploit a situation like this.

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

OOOOOPs!

Looks like George Bush really started a whole domino effect of "freedom".
But I guess none of this counts cause he forgot to ask the UN. Quick, Let's send in some UN peacekeeprs into Lebanon. I'm sure they wat to go!

Oh, wait, guess who is over there who could really help out?
Yup, Hillary & Mccain!

[Marano NYC]

This will never work unless Israel or the US tell Damascus there is a big stick . The Assad regime is brutal but is the US or Israel willing to lend Air Power. This would give an opposition movement the only chance.
Will Jumblatt cross Hezbollah and what happens if the Palestinian camps turn into battle fields ?
Is Israel or the US prepared to stop Syrian Armored columns from entering the Bekaa valley. I doubt Sharon or Bush would stop this . It is the right thing to do but the backlash in Europe would be high.

[deepFR]

Sounds like CIA has gotten smart and is turning our enemies on each other so they do not have time to create problems for us - next, increase funding to Iranian opposition.

[Enterprise]

Yeah, kinda looks like Syria might want to recall some of the trained killers they're sending to Iraq. They're going to need the help soon.

[Straight Vermonter]

We need to do what we were unwilling to do in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslavokia in 1968. Openly support the opposition and inform the outside power (the Soviets then, the Syrians now) that we will not stand idly by while troops interfere.

Moving a division or so into the western desert in Iraq should speak eloquently enough.

[deepFR]

Keep waiting for them to give Kim Jung something with which to occupy his time.

[John Lenin]

eenders said that Syria could seek to stir trouble in Lebanon by provoking conflict, perhaps between the 300,000 Palestinian refugees who reside in Lebanon and the Lebanese state.

Refugees ? Wtf, I moved from Ohio because I do better out west, am I a refuge from Ohio ? The whole middle east is into twisted thinking, no wonder they are so messed up !

[Marano NYC]

I fear it will take more than that to do this job. Will we or the Israelis use our air power against reinforcing armored columns. Remember the outcry over the Highway of death in the first Persian Gulf War.
The right thing would be to destroy the reinforcements. Yet there is a real possibility of Iranian movements against us in Iraq. Hopefully Syria is getting signals from DC.

[Wiz]

Uh oh, sounds like a bloody civil war to come in Lebanon. Shall US support the Lebanese with weapons to remove the Syrian force out of Lebanon?

[Marano NYC]

In an ideal situation the US provides the air cover for the rebels. A few A-10 covered in the air could easily decimate any Syrian advance.
Yet if America refuses to do the job Israel should do it, Syria has played this double game with Hezbollah for too long .

[ASA Vet]

There would be a lot more the 10% of any Syrian advance destroyed.

This whole "uprising" is an arranged invitation for the US to give the boot to the Syrians.

[Marano NYC]

If we neutralized the armor and air power the Lebanese can do the rest. Yet I know the inevitable massacre will take place in a Palestinian refugee camp.
Assad is smarter than Saddam and it is doubtful he would risk a confrontation with the USA. The whole country is ruled by an Alawite clique. There is a great potential of a national uprising if the army were defeated. There are grumblings in the Kurdish areas. Our bigest enemy would be the potential media images. How will the world react to a second highway of death ? If our allies storm the Palestinian refugee camps will the world create a new bogus blood libel against America.

[GoLightly]

This didn't happen in a vacuum. There's a UN resolution calling for Syria's withdrawl. It was co-sponsored by the US and France.

[GoLightly]

Yes, refugees. There are "Palestinian" internment camps in several Arab countries.