The only problem with your assessment is that two key items cannot be reconciled. How can the NHL divide the players' union between the "high-paid" and "low-paid" players if the league is eventually going to contract anyway? If some guy making $800,000 decides to cross the "picket line" and accept the NHL's terms, then by this time next year he's going to be losing his job to a former $3 million player who settles for $1.5 million in a league that has about 20% fewer teams.
Your analysis might be correct, but I think the biggest obstacle to the contraction of the league is not the players -- it's the owners. Not just the owners of those teams that would go out of business, but every owner who purchased his team or paid a hefty expansion fee under the inflated values of the 1990s.
No..because the higher paid stars, for at least one more season, will stay out, thinking they can win, or go to Europe..Bettman is thinking 20 years out..a player today, who may have a 3-5 year career...is thinking about next season..
The league will declare an impass, announce its new terms, and open camp..They have to do it in order to have an draft..You'll have 2/3 of the players cross the line..and the NHLPA wil go the way of PATCO in another year..
Want a real long shot prediction..The next baseball commissioner..not Condi..but Bettman..