Posted on 02/17/2005 7:53:47 AM PST by JohnnyZ
Hmm, well, then I'm not so sure if we should risk Wilson against Bingaman (then again, Bingaman is far more vulnerable than Domenici is).
Sad. Once these cities become one-party fiefdoms, the corruption never ends.
"I am more concerned about the IL-08. We need to get that seat back. To elect a feminazi in a GOP-leaning district is pathetic."
I still think that was more a vote against Phil Crane than a vote for the 'Rat. If we don't handily take the seat back next time, it'll show just how bad off the GOP is eroding in the Chicago suburbs. Heh, y'know, if Rumsfeld retires as DefSec next year, he could run for that seat, as he was Phil Crane's predecessor. ;-)
"Frankly, I prefer if Birkett waits until Henry Hyde retires. He would make a great keeper of the IL-06."
Who would you prefer as the GOP nominee for Governor instead of Birkett ?
I hate to say it but, LaHood is so far the only viable candidate. There are no other quality guys (Alan Keyes is flirting with running for Governor).
The only Republican who is not portrayed as a flake or crook is Mark Kirk. The news treats him as a common sense Republican. They talk about why can't the national party be more like him. I think Kirk is planning on running for Governor in 2010.
Ugh... Mark Kirk the social liberal ? Jeez, it'll be just like Dick Ogilvie all over again.
...Or Thompson... or Edgar...
Living in a deep blue state doesn't give me much options.
Don't worry, I think it'll come back around. It's just a matter of getting the state party's act together... and recruiting Mike Ditka. ;-)
Hmmm ..... are you saying Kirk may suffer from ....
Ogilvie syndrome, or acute colonic pseudo-obstruction (ACPO), is a clinical disorder with the signs, symptoms, and radiographic appearance of an acute large bowel obstruction with no evidence of distal colonic obstruction. The colon may become massively dilated; if not decompressed, the patient risks perforation, peritonitis, and death.
Valde's got to declare he's in first. If he's in, he'll give it his all, I have no doubt about that.
Hoogendyk impressed me at the GOP convention with his announcement speech(and 1/2 of the room was his volunteers). He knows he's a long shot and from what I've seen, he's acting like it. He won't beat himself.
I missed the Nancy Cassis announcement.
Other rumors have possibly Dick DeVos or David Brandon(Dominoes CEO) running.
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On the senate side, we have Bart Baron who is a Buchananite with no party support. In fact he ran as a dem against Joe Knollenberg. Former Detroit City Councilman and current Bishop Keith Butler is also in. He MIGHT be a sleeper. Other names mentioned for his spot are former congressman Nick Smith, Jane Abraham(Spence's wife), and Peter Cummings.
I'm hoping Candice Miller changes her mind, or Mike Rogers jumps in. I think those two are by far our best shots.
It's a good thing I eat my Cheerios dry, or you'd be paying for a new laptop now, buddy.
I hear there's a lot of Dick DeVos/AmWay fans around here...
=maniacal laughter=
Now THAT is truly disgusting. You shouldn't say such things when I am full of sushi and rice and fish roll and shrimp dumpling and spinach and mushroom and vermicelli rice noodles and mussels and Chinese donut and canteloupe and other Lenten Friday foods.
Y'know, every time you eat a mushroom, you make a smurf homeless.
She won the SOS race against Butch Hollowell for an open seat by outworking everyone and starting early. I think she could beat Stabenow.
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Stabenow's 2000 race by county - The percentages are posted here
Background history
Stab started off in local politics back in Lansing. She was a state rep/state senator for years. She first ran for statewide office in 1994 in an attempt to take out John Engler. She lost to Howard Wolpe in the primary and then became the Lt Governor nominee running with Wolpe(They both run together). Wolpe and Stabenow got their butts kicked by Engler/Binsfeld
In 1996, Stabenow ran for Congress against incumbent Dick Chrysler who won in the 1994 landslide. Chrysler's a good guy, but the unions dumped $2 million in that race and the district leaned slightly democrat. Stab won with 52 or 53% if I remember.
In 98, we should have taken out Stab. Engler was facing Fieger who dragged down the entire ticket. However, Right to life skipped this race. Sue Munsell was pro-choice, and for some reason Stabenow has a following in Livingston County(compared to other dems). Combining the two, it was not good and unfortunatly, springboarded her 2000 race. I posted Rogers 2000 for comparasion with the 1998 race.
Gore/Kerry Counties Stab lost in 2000
Oakland(Both), Arenac(both), Alger(Kerry), Calhoun(Gore), Kalamazoo(Both), Isabella(Both), Ogemaw(Gore), Iosco(Gore), Manistee(Gore), Roscommon(Gore).
Outside of Kalamazoo and Oakland, most of these are more blue collar areas. Oakland was Spence Abraham's home. Kalamazoo is the home of Western Michigan University, and also has a large black population in the city.
Counties Stab won that Bush won
Macomb, Alpena, Iron, Monroe - Bush won them all in 2004(lost them in 2000) by a close margin.
Stabenow also has problems outside of the Lansing area and Flint/Detroit areas. She had very low numbers for a dem in Bay, Marquette, Lake, and Saginaw which have a lot of social conservatives. Muskegon was a shocker as well. Those 5 areas are all usually 54-55% Democrat. Spence Abraham ran ahead of Bush in most of the state, especially up North, and that factored in the dem counties as well up there. Alpena was a disaster for Stabenow.
But she made up for in the 8th district pre-redistricting counties. Ingham, Livingston, Washtenaw, Shiawassee, and Genessee.(Only two Oakland twps are there) She ran almost with Gore in Eaton, Jackson, and Clinton counties which are in Lansing's media market. Same with Lapeer which is Flint's market. They aren't in the 8th district, but are in the same media markets.
Ingham County is Stab's home, and she ran slightly ahead of Gore there. She campaigned hard in Livingston County and did extremely well here for a democrat(Bush's 4th best county). She ran even with Gore in Washtenaw and only slightly behind in Shiawassee County. SWGenesee was in her district, and was her best area outside of Wayne County.
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If the Republican candidate is to beat Stab, he (or she) is going to have to match Spence (or Bush 04) up North. I think that is very possible if you run a pro-lifer and pro-gunner. They don't get worse than Stab on those two issues - despite what she says. Obstructionism should hurt her up there too.
The GOP has been losing ground in Kalamazoo, Muskegon, Kent(still solid GOP, but not like it used to be), Oakland, and Washtenaw Counties. The bleeding there needs to be taken care of as soon as possible. Some of it is migration(Washtenaw and Oakland), but we need to fight there.
The candidate also has to strike hard at the pre-redistrict 8th district areas. Livingston needs to be able to balance out Ingham County one on one - at least 63%, perferably 65%+. Ingham's a homer so that will be hard to break, but the rural areas could be up for grabs. Byrum got clipped by Rogers on her own turf there to lose overall by 88 votes after the recount. Throw Eaton, Lapeer(Going more GOP) and Jackson into the mix as well there. If Stab loses her regional base there, we'll have an easier time making up the Wayne County votes.
I think we can take Macomb and Monroe. We won those two in a row(02/04) and a Stabenow Democrat is easier to beat than a John Dingell democrat in those two areas.
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