Test Time for Governors [2006 races from Rothenberg]

Test Time for Governors The next two years are a mega-cycle for governors, with 38 states hosting a race. In 2002, 23 Republicans and Democrats won election to their first term, putting the spotlight on these incumbents as they seek reelection after four years of governing. Four other governors (who have succeeded to the office or been elected since 2002) will face voters in 2006 as well.

The Government Performance Project (GPP) and Governing magazine recently released their report card, giving a overall letter grade to each state by taking into account its Money (the state's financial situation), People (state employee management), Infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.), and Information (how well the state uses technology to communicate to the state's residents).The grading was obviously not on a curve, since there weren't many high marks.

While a low grade does not necessarily mean a loss next November for the sitting governor's party - and, conversely, a party in power can't rest on its laurels just because the state received a high grade - the ratings do constitute political ammunition for candidates.

GPP Grade: C- Both Gov. Bob Riley (R)'s Alabama and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)'s California received "C-" grades, the lowest of any state holding a gubernatorial election in the next two years. But Riley is in much worse shape. He is expected to face a primary challenge because he advocated for a tax increase of over a billion dollars that was soundly defeated by Alabama voters. Former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) is the most prominent name mentioned. And if he survives that, Riley could also face a competitive general election from Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley (D) or former Gov. Don Siegelman (D), the man Riley beat in 2002.

Schwarzenegger is in better shape, even though California's financial situation was given a "D." He'll certainly face any number of statewide elected Democrats in the general election, but he appears to be riding a wave of popularity following his election during the Gray Davis recall. It's unclear that voters are ready to blame the state's problems on Arnold after only a year in office.

GPP Grade: C Three states get the mediocre "C" grade: Hawaii, Wyoming, and New Hampshire. Gov. Linda Lingle (R- Hawaii) and Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D-Wyoming) are in very similar situations. Lingle, a Republican, was elected in a deep "Blue" state and Freudenthal, a Democrat, was elected in a deep "Red" state. But up to this point, there are no challengers even mentioned to run against either one of them.

Last fall in New Hampshire, Bill Lynch (D) knocked off incumbent Gov. Craig Benson (R) for a two-year term so he'll be up again in 2006. No incumbent in the Granite State had lost reelection to a second term in twenty five years, until Benson last November. In the end, Lynch may get a credible challenger, but no Republican heavyweights are looming.

GPP Grade: C+ Eleven states make up this class, but Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) of Alaska is the cream of the crop in terms of vulnerability. He almost dragged down his daughter, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), in last year's Senate race and now must fight for his own reelection. Democrats are still trying to come up with a candidate, but anyone with a pulse has a chance against the governor.

Both Arkansas and Colorado will host open seat contests because Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and Gov. Bill Owens (R) are term-limited. Republicans and Democrats will have competitive and crowded primaries in both states and the general elections should be tightly contested.

Republican governors Mitt Romney (Massachusetts), Don Carcieri (Rhode Island), and Jodi Rell (Connecticut) are all seeking reelection in states that are reliably Democratic in most contests. Recent polls show Romney locked in a tight battle with state Attorney General Thomas Reilly (D). Democrats are waiting to see how vulnerable Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) may be before setting their sights on Carcieri. Rell's approval numbers are astronomical after succeeding Gov. John Rowland (R) who was indicted on corruption charges and resigned before he could be impeached. But she could still face a very competitive race.

Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) of Oregon may face a competitive race, even though the state Republican Party is not the strongest. Democrats have held the governorship since 1986, making it prime territory for a change message. New polling shows Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry (D) is very well-liked even though he is in a very "Red" state. He skated into office in 2002 without anyone laying a glove on him, and he just may get by the same way in 2006.

The remaining three are in much better shape. Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) is going through a rough patch in the local media between himself and his father-in-law, Chicago Alderman Dick Mell (D), but there is no sign Republicans will be able to get their act together to mount much of a challenge. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-New Mexico) and Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-Tennessee) are seeking reelection in order to position themselves for a potential White House run in 2008.

"Blago is portrayed as a flake. Plus, the news is now highlighting the corruption of Chicago City workers. Guess there are no Republcians to kick around anymore."

Sad. Once these cities become one-party fiefdoms, the corruption never ends.

"I am more concerned about the IL-08. We need to get that seat back. To elect a feminazi in a GOP-leaning district is pathetic."

I still think that was more a vote against Phil Crane than a vote for the 'Rat. If we don't handily take the seat back next time, it'll show just how bad off the GOP is eroding in the Chicago suburbs. Heh, y'know, if Rumsfeld retires as DefSec next year, he could run for that seat, as he was Phil Crane's predecessor. ;-)

"Frankly, I prefer if Birkett waits until Henry Hyde retires. He would make a great keeper of the IL-06."

Who would you prefer as the GOP nominee for Governor instead of Birkett ?

Maybe not as long as we think. Let's hope Valde Garcia can send Jenny Grandstand back to Canuckistan.

Valde's got to declare he's in first. If he's in, he'll give it his all, I have no doubt about that.

Hoogendyk impressed me at the GOP convention with his announcement speech(and 1/2 of the room was his volunteers). He knows he's a long shot and from what I've seen, he's acting like it. He won't beat himself.

I missed the Nancy Cassis announcement.

Other rumors have possibly Dick DeVos or David Brandon(Dominoes CEO) running.

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On the senate side, we have Bart Baron who is a Buchananite with no party support. In fact he ran as a dem against Joe Knollenberg. Former Detroit City Councilman and current Bishop Keith Butler is also in. He MIGHT be a sleeper. Other names mentioned for his spot are former congressman Nick Smith, Jane Abraham(Spence's wife), and Peter Cummings.

I'm hoping Candice Miller changes her mind, or Mike Rogers jumps in. I think those two are by far our best shots.

Land would be a great candidate in 2010. She'd be a good candidate now(Great candidates would be Candice Miller or Mike Rogers). The only question mark is experience since she's only won one major race(She was Kent County Clerk beforehand).

She won the SOS race against Butch Hollowell for an open seat by outworking everyone and starting early. I think she could beat Stabenow.

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Stabenow's 2000 race by county - The percentages are posted here

Background history

Stab started off in local politics back in Lansing. She was a state rep/state senator for years. She first ran for statewide office in 1994 in an attempt to take out John Engler. She lost to Howard Wolpe in the primary and then became the Lt Governor nominee running with Wolpe(They both run together). Wolpe and Stabenow got their butts kicked by Engler/Binsfeld

In 1996, Stabenow ran for Congress against incumbent Dick Chrysler who won in the 1994 landslide. Chrysler's a good guy, but the unions dumped $2 million in that race and the district leaned slightly democrat. Stab won with 52 or 53% if I remember.

In 98, we should have taken out Stab. Engler was facing Fieger who dragged down the entire ticket. However, Right to life skipped this race. Sue Munsell was pro-choice, and for some reason Stabenow has a following in Livingston County(compared to other dems). Combining the two, it was not good and unfortunatly, springboarded her 2000 race. I posted Rogers 2000 for comparasion with the 1998 race.

Gore/Kerry Counties Stab lost in 2000
Oakland(Both), Arenac(both), Alger(Kerry), Calhoun(Gore), Kalamazoo(Both), Isabella(Both), Ogemaw(Gore), Iosco(Gore), Manistee(Gore), Roscommon(Gore).
Outside of Kalamazoo and Oakland, most of these are more blue collar areas. Oakland was Spence Abraham's home. Kalamazoo is the home of Western Michigan University, and also has a large black population in the city.

Counties Stab won that Bush won
Macomb, Alpena, Iron, Monroe - Bush won them all in 2004(lost them in 2000) by a close margin.

Stabenow also has problems outside of the Lansing area and Flint/Detroit areas. She had very low numbers for a dem in Bay, Marquette, Lake, and Saginaw which have a lot of social conservatives. Muskegon was a shocker as well. Those 5 areas are all usually 54-55% Democrat. Spence Abraham ran ahead of Bush in most of the state, especially up North, and that factored in the dem counties as well up there. Alpena was a disaster for Stabenow.

But she made up for in the 8th district pre-redistricting counties. Ingham, Livingston, Washtenaw, Shiawassee, and Genessee.(Only two Oakland twps are there) She ran almost with Gore in Eaton, Jackson, and Clinton counties which are in Lansing's media market. Same with Lapeer which is Flint's market. They aren't in the 8th district, but are in the same media markets.

Ingham County is Stab's home, and she ran slightly ahead of Gore there. She campaigned hard in Livingston County and did extremely well here for a democrat(Bush's 4th best county). She ran even with Gore in Washtenaw and only slightly behind in Shiawassee County. SWGenesee was in her district, and was her best area outside of Wayne County.

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If the Republican candidate is to beat Stab, he (or she) is going to have to match Spence (or Bush 04) up North. I think that is very possible if you run a pro-lifer and pro-gunner. They don't get worse than Stab on those two issues - despite what she says. Obstructionism should hurt her up there too.

The GOP has been losing ground in Kalamazoo, Muskegon, Kent(still solid GOP, but not like it used to be), Oakland, and Washtenaw Counties. The bleeding there needs to be taken care of as soon as possible. Some of it is migration(Washtenaw and Oakland), but we need to fight there.

The candidate also has to strike hard at the pre-redistrict 8th district areas. Livingston needs to be able to balance out Ingham County one on one - at least 63%, perferably 65%+. Ingham's a homer so that will be hard to break, but the rural areas could be up for grabs. Byrum got clipped by Rogers on her own turf there to lose overall by 88 votes after the recount. Throw Eaton, Lapeer(Going more GOP) and Jackson into the mix as well there. If Stab loses her regional base there, we'll have an easier time making up the Wayne County votes.

I think we can take Macomb and Monroe. We won those two in a row(02/04) and a Stabenow Democrat is easier to beat than a John Dingell democrat in those two areas.

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