Insider's Edge: [NJ] Gubernatorial Politics

‘Tis the season of County Conventions, a semi-democratic process that political parties use to award their sometimes valuable organization line to contenders for statewide and local office. Some counties use a truly open process that allows candidates to campaign among party members to gain the organization endorsement; others are criticized as merely a tool to ratify the endorsement of a handful of party leaders. Over the next seven weeks, twelve Republican county organizations will meet to pick one candidate to run on their organization line. Like the presidential primary process, a candidate can gain some real momentum by scoring an unexpected victory at a party convention. The winner of the first GOP intramural was Doug Forrester, who was the unanimous choice of Burlington County Republicans after a Screening Committee vote last Saturday.

Cape May, February 16th to March 15th: The sixteen Republican municipal organizations in Cape May County will hold separate caucuses through the fifteenth of March and vote for a preferred gubernatorial candidate. The organization line will be tallied on March 15.

Gloucester, February 25th: Gloucester County GOP Chairman BUD MCBRIDE caused a stir last year when he sponsored a non-biding gubernatorial straw poll that then-GOP State Chairman JOSEPH KYRILLOS sought to cancel. As punishment for holding the vote, McBride was the only County Chairman who was denied a Republican National Convention delegate slot. The winner was Assemblyman PAUL DIGAETANO, who went door-to-door and won 122 of the 204 votes cast; his closest rival, State Senator DIANE ALLEN, won 64 votes. Making a major push for grass roots support in Gloucester is businessman ROBERT SCHROEDER, who has significant backing from Republicans in the county's two largest towns, Washington Township (where he is supported by '04 mayoral candidate JEFFREY MORRIS) and in Monroe Township. Forrester has the support of Harrison Township Mayor (and '03 Senate candidate) PHILIP RHUDY. DiGaetano, who won 27 of Monroe's thirty votes at the March 2004 straw poll; he has the backing of former Mayor JOHN "WINNIE" SHARP (whose name had been improperly included on a list of Schroeder's endorsements). For DiGaetano to be competitive in Gloucester, he needs the active support of former Assembly Speaker JACK COLLINS, who helped his ex-Majority Leader out last year but has stopped short of a formal endorsement.

Union County, March 12th: If Gloucester County is New Jersey's Iowa, then Union County is the GOP's New Hampshire -- a place where retail politics could turn a second-tier candidate into a genuine contender. If Morris County Freeholder John Murphy is going to break out anywhere, it will likely be in Union, where he has scored some impressive early endorsements. Murphy has gambled by spending his early money on direct mail and cable television, and now, with much of his financial resources depleted, he'll need to score a victory somewhere if he is to replenish his campaign treasury. Murphy has the backing of the Republican Mayor of Clark and all seven GOP Councilmembers, three of the five Republicans on the Scotch Plains Council, and Republican State Committeeman GABRIEL SPERA, a former Scotch Plains Mayor. Forrester's announced support is limited to Scotch Plains Mayor (and '03 Senate candidate) MARTIN MARKS, GOP Municipal Chairman WILLIAM MCCLINTOCK (whose company supplies the Forrester campaign with voter labels), Summit Councilwoman KELLY HATFIELD, Rahway GOP Municipal Chair MARYANNE JANUSZ (though not her husband, Councilman FRANK JANUSZ), and the Rahway Republican Club President and 2nd Vice Chairwoman.

Bergen and Atlantic, March 15th: This is the Super Tuesday of the Republican process, with the organization line in Bergen County viewed as a major prize. Of the seven Republican gubernatorial candidates, four have a legitimate claim to a Bergen County base: Paul DiGaetano, who represents nine South Bergen towns in the State Assembly; TODD CALIGUIRE, who served six years as a Bergen County Freeholder; STEVEN LONEGAN, the three-term Mayor of Bogota who has a strong presence among local Republicans, and Bob Schroeder, a local elected official in Washington Township with considerable support in the northeastern part of the county. The other three candidates also have pockets of support: John Murphy has endorsements from the Mayors of Oakland and Bergenfield, GOP Municipal Chairs in Oakland and River Edge, and a trio of Councilmen -- two from Ramsey and one from Bergenfield; and Doug Forrester has the support of a Paramus Councilman, the Paramus GOP Vice Chairwoman, and a former Mayor of Fair Lawn. The two Assembly members who represent the 39th district, JOHN ROONEY and CHARLOTTE VANDERVALK, are for Schroeder. So far, none of the candidates have scored home runs in the endorsement game: neither of the two Republican State Senators, HENRY MCNAMARA and GERALD CARDINALE, have picked a horse, nor have Assemblyman DAVID RUSSO, County Clerk KATHLEEN DONOVAN (who was at Schroeder's campaign kickoff last year) or the lone GOP Freeholder, ELIZABETH RANDALL. Former Bergen County Republican Chairwoman MARLENE CASEY had been quoted in a press release as endorsing Forrester (and her name remained on Forrester's website as recently as Tuesday evening), but within an hour of the announcement, Casey contacted PoliticsNJ.com to say she had not endorsed any candidate. Quietly, Bergen County Republican Chairman GUY TALARICO has given his blessing to Doug Forrester, who coincidentally has helped the cash-starved local organization meet there monthly overhead by subleasing part of the massive Hackensack headquarters.

So far, Doug Forrester is the only candidate to announce any Atlantic County GOP endorsements. He has the backing of Congressman FRANK LOBIONDO, who moved to Atlantic County last year, Republican Freeholders SUSAN SCHILLING, STEVEN JOHNSON and FRANK FINNERTY, the Mayors of Margate, Buena, Folsom and Ventnor, and a pair of Councilmen -- one from Egg Harbor, the other from Northfield. The de facto head of the Atlantic County GOP, State Senator WILLIAM GORMLEY, has not yet weighed in. In 2002, then-Essex County Executive JAMES TREFFINGER won the Atlantic convention with a massive 92% of the vote, even though Gormley voted for his Senate colleague, JOHN MATHEUSSEN. At the time, few political insiders believed that Atlantic County went for Treffinger without Gormley’s blessing; in Gormley's hometown, Margate, Treffinger received 66 votes and Matheussen won just one -- Gormley's.

Camden, March 17th: This will be the first time Camden County Republicans hold an open contest for their organization line. Local pundits say that Doug Forrester has the inside track and this one may be his to lose.

Ocean County, March 23rd: The extraordinarily potent Ocean County GOP organization line will be awarded after a vote of the County Council, an eclectic group of party leaders and elected officials. Only one endorsement really matters: Republican County Chairman GEORGE GILMORE, who was until just recently hoping that U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie would change his mind and enter the race. Without Christie, insiders expect that Gilmore, with little enthusiasm, will be for Doug Forrester -- accordingly, so will Ocean County.

Mercer, March 31st: The 2005 Mercer County Convention is a non-event -- unless circumstances change dramatically, Doug Forrester seems to have his home county locked up. He already has the public endorsements of GOP County Chairman PHIL ANGARONE, JR., State Senator Peter Inverso and Assemblyman WILLIAM BARONI. The convention in Mercer County was the site of considerable drama in recent years: when BOB FRANKS won enough votes to share the organization line with Bill Gormley, who had the backing of Angarone, Inverso and then-County Executive ROBERT PRUNETTI, it was a turning point in the 2000 Senate primary. In 2002, Forrester's loss to Jim Treffinger in Mercer County was considered a huge setback to the former West Windsor Mayor, who only recovered locally after FBI agents raided Treffinger's office.

Middlesex, April 2nd: Middlesex County is potentially the most open contest in the state -- any registered Republican is eligible to vote, as long as he or she pays the modest ($10) registration fee in advance of the contest. The deadline to file delegates is March 19. If former Jersey City Mayor BRET SCHUNDLER shows any grass roots strength at county conventions, in may be in Middlesex. (Schundler won a March 2003 Straw Poll with 72% of the vote.) The Middlesex County Republican Executive Committee is set to meet on March 9, and insiders say that an endorsement from that group -- which does not award the line -- is expected to go to Forrester. Publicly, only two local Republicans -- Sayreville Mayor KENNEDY O'BRIEN and former State Senator RANDY CORMAN -- are with Forrester. In 2002, Forrester scored an upset victory to win the Middlesex GOP Convention, beating Jim Treffinger by a nine-vote margin, 234-225, on the second ballot. (Forrester led Treffinger on the first ballot, 201-176.)

Somerset, April 6th: Like Ocean County's George Gilmore, Somerset County Republican Chairman DALE FLORIO has been largely on the sidelines -- not entirely enthused by any of the current field of GOP gubernatorial contenders. Florio is not likely to take sides before the convention, leaving the process wide open to a grass roots campaign where real, live County Committee members get to make a decision based on who impresses them. Doug Forrester needs popular Congressman MICHAEL FERGUSON to publicly endorse him before the Somerset vote, and Ferguson needs to be assured that Forrester won't embarrass him by losing Somerset anyway. Watch for the results of the convention in neighboring Middlesex County to influence the Somerset momentum.

Monmouth, April 9th: In the old days, before the presidential nomination process was front-loaded, the final primary in California often determined a party's candidate for President. Monmouth County, the last-scheduled open nominating process, could be critical if the early organizational contests fail to offer a clear establishment candidate. Doug Forrester has considerable support in Monmouth, where he has been endorsed by Sheriff JOSEPH OXLEY, County Clerk CLAIRE FRENCH, Freeholder ROBERT CLIFTON and former Republican National Committeewoman JUDITH STANLEY COLEMAN. State Senator Joe Kyrillos, the former Republican State Chairman, is also backing Forrester, although he has made no public announcement. This week, John Murphy won the backing of Assemblyman SEAN KEAN. Schundler has some legitimate claim to support in Monmouth County.

Sussex, April 16th: Sussex County has no organization line -- their electronic voting machines cannot accommodate a line even if party leaders wanted one -- but Republican County Chairman RICHARD ZEOLI, who is neutral, is trying to cause gubernatorial candidates to pay attention to Sussex County by holding a convention. The winner will get to use the organization slogan on the ballot -- not as good as a line, but potentially helpful in a close contest. Sussex is a place where several candidates have something going: Bret Schundler has the support of Assemblyman GUY GREGG, who is very popular among Sussex County Republicans, while John Murphy has been endorsed by Congressman RODNEY FRELINGHUYSEN, Sheriff ROBERT UNTIG, three Freeholders and the Mayors of Sparta and Vernon. Sussex County Republicans will sponsor a major gubernatorial debate on March 9th.

For those with no exposure to NJ politics, the import of the county lines is probably a mystery. Persoanlly, I think it's a big deal if you have no statewide name ID, but much less of one if you do, as is the case with Bret & Doug.

To: sonrise57; BobFromNJ; Sub-Driver; daddude; dead; OldFriend; genefromjersey; BATNF; oceanview; ...

Nascent NJ Gov ping list ping. Let me know if you want off.

2 posted on 02/16/2005 6:00:47 PM PST by BroncosFan ("It's worse than a crime - it's a mistake." Talleyrand.)

I always love hearing about gubernatorial politics because it's good to know who wants to be the "goober".

I'm way down here in southwestern Atlantic County. I'm still not sure how the politics work here after 24 years in the Garden State. (How do candidates get endorsed before the primaries?) Could you ADD me to your ping list please? Maybe I'll learn something helpful, no?

4 posted on 02/16/2005 7:25:56 PM PST by proudmilitarymrs (If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you are reading it in English, thank a soldier.)

Some counties hold convetions.

Winning the conventions or support of a closed county like help create poltical power in the state when the primary comes by in july.

6 posted on 02/19/2005 8:33:20 PM PST by proudmilitarymrs (If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you are reading it in English, thank a soldier.)

No problem.

I am not sure how Atlantic County is going to do their convention. But, rumors are Forrester is going to win it.. The same way he won Glouscter.

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