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Pakistan will be failed state by 2015: CIA
Press Trust of India ^ | February 13, 2005

Posted on 02/12/2005 10:54:33 PM PST by HAL9000

NEW DELHI: Pakistan will be a "failed" state by 2015 as it would be affected by civil war, complete Talibanisation and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons, premier US intelligence agencies have said in an assessment report.

Forecasting a "Yugoslavia-like fate" for Pakistan, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in a jointly prepared Global Futures Assessment Report have said "by year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation". v "Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive policies, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction," said the report quoted by former Pakistan High Commissioner to United Kingdom Wajid Shamsul Hasan in an article in the ' South Asia Tribune '.

Titled 'Will Pakistan Army invade Balochistan as per the NIC-CIA Plan', the former senior diplomat said "in the context of Balochistan, one would like to refer to the 2015 NIC report. It forecast a Yugoslavia-like fate for Pakistan.

"The military operation that has been put in motion there would further distance the Baloch people from rest of the country. That perhaps is the (NIC-CIA) Plan," Hasan said.

"Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the Central government's control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi," the former diplomat quoted the NIC-CIA report as saying.

Expressing apprehension, Hasan asked, "are our military rulers working on a similar agenda or something that has been laid out for them in the various assessment reports over the years by the National Intelligence Council in joint collaboration with CIA?"

His article comes in the backdrop of growing violence between the Balochis and the Pakistani security forces stationed in the gas-rich province.

The recent moves by the security forces to evict all residents within a 15-km radius of the Pakistan's biggest Sui gas plant and the decision to create a cantonment near it has given a fillip to the anti-Islamabad insurgent activities of Balochi groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army, reports said.

The reports said Pakistan was taking the "most drastic step yet" in its bid to crush a deadly tribal rebellion by forcibly evicting all residents from around 500 dwellings within 15 kilometres of the country's biggest Sui gasfield.

The Army says such a step would prevent further attacks and protect residents from the devastating consequences of a major explosion, the reports said.



TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2015; balochistan; cia; geopolitics; pakistan; southasia; taliban; usnic
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1 posted on 02/12/2005 10:54:34 PM PST by HAL9000
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To: HAL9000

INDIA , take back what is your own....


2 posted on 02/12/2005 10:56:07 PM PST by injin ("until the fight is won......")
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To: HAL9000

Pakistan...what a mess.


3 posted on 02/12/2005 10:56:10 PM PST by ApesForEvolution (I just took a Muhammad and wiped my Jihadist with Mein Koran...come and get me nutbags.)
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To: HAL9000

That is very possible


4 posted on 02/12/2005 10:56:18 PM PST by GeronL (I'm thinking, I'm thinking!)
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To: HAL9000

The EU will also be a failed state


5 posted on 02/12/2005 10:56:39 PM PST by GeronL (I'm thinking, I'm thinking!)
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To: HAL9000

Another liberal failure on the horizon.


6 posted on 02/12/2005 10:57:31 PM PST by Mad_Tom_Rackham (This just in from CBS: "There is no bias at CBS")
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To: HAL9000

I thought Pakistan was already a failed state. What keeps it from being called a failed state now, the fact that it hasn't actually slid into the ocean?


7 posted on 02/12/2005 10:59:31 PM PST by Richard Kimball (It was a joke. You know, humor. Like the funny kind. Only different.)
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To: HAL9000
If the CIA's "intelligence" was dynamite they couldn't even blow their own nose.
8 posted on 02/12/2005 10:59:34 PM PST by bahblahbah
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To: HAL9000

And the CIA will be nonexistent, as we know it now by 2018.


9 posted on 02/12/2005 11:04:13 PM PST by FairOpinion
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To: HAL9000

Let's hope that the nukes are secured by US/Israel/India before the Army loses all control.


10 posted on 02/12/2005 11:10:24 PM PST by Srirangan
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To: HAL9000

Actually, you could change the name of the country to, say, U.S., and it would still be believable intel.


11 posted on 02/12/2005 11:12:37 PM PST by SuperLuminal
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To: HAL9000
sanskrit translation:: CIA says Bush sucks! life stinks! the world is dangerous!!

fact is, CIA is still p*ssed that Goss is cleaning house...screw them spooks

12 posted on 02/12/2005 11:14:39 PM PST by Bobber58 (whatever it takes, for as long as it takes)
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To: Richard Kimball

AP:: Pakistan slips into ocean...Worlds largest Nuclear Island poses threats!!!


13 posted on 02/12/2005 11:16:09 PM PST by Bobber58 (whatever it takes, for as long as it takes)
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To: HAL9000
Global Futures Assessment Report

Where can I find a copy of this report?

14 posted on 02/12/2005 11:29:33 PM PST by MonitorMaid (It is not freedom which permits the Trojan Horse to be wheeled within the gates...)
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To: HAL9000
[ "Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. ]

Democracy is mob rule.. Islamic countrys have always been and are now mob rule.. Kind of like England and URP.. and of course Canada.. Mexico don't even try to desquise their mob rule...

15 posted on 02/12/2005 11:37:58 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been ok'ed me to included some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: HAL9000

Nice to see the world so calm and peaceful.


16 posted on 02/12/2005 11:57:45 PM PST by Mind-numbed Robot (Not all things that need to be done need to be done by the government.)
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To: HAL9000
If a Taliban like regime starts to take power in Pakistan we will have to go in and secure their nukes at any cost.
17 posted on 02/13/2005 12:05:47 AM PST by ThermoNuclearWarrior (PRESSURE BUSH TO CLOSE THE BORDERS!!!)
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To: ThermoNuclearWarrior

I think the US already did send "advisors" over there last year or 2003 or so to secure their nukes, as i recall


18 posted on 02/13/2005 12:41:49 AM PST by music is math
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To: HAL9000

With it's military and ISI heroin dealers; whacko Wahabbi Islamists; and nuclear shopping mart, I'd say Pakistan has a very bright future ahead.

Not.


19 posted on 02/13/2005 2:05:41 AM PST by angkor
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To: Bobber58

"AP:: Pakistan slips into ocean...Worlds largest Nuclear Island poses threats!!!"

You forgot; "Women, minorities, the elderly, unemployed, children, and small animals most heavily affected."


20 posted on 02/13/2005 2:09:54 AM PST by JSteff
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