Posted on 02/11/2005 4:16:24 AM PST by Iowegian
Edited on 02/11/2005 11:54:48 AM PST by Lead Moderator. [history]
WASHINGTON - The public's confidence in President Bush's job performance and the nation's direction has slipped in the opening weeks of his second term, particularly among people 50 and older, according to an Associated Press poll.
Adults were evenly divided on Bush's job performance in January, but now 54 percent disapprove and 45 percent approve. The number who think the country is headed down the wrong track increased from 51 percent to 58 percent in the past month.
The survey wasn't all bad for the Bush administration: People are slightly more optimistic about the possibility of a stable, democratic Iraq.
The poll, conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs, was taken after the president's State of the Union address and the elections in Iraq and at the start of a heated debate over creating personal Social Security accounts.
Older Americans, especially those 65 and above, were most responsible for the declining confidence and approval numbers. Middle-aged people between 30 and 50 were about evenly split on Bush's job performance.
"It looks like people are reacting to the State of the Union and plans to change Social Security," said Charles Franklin, a political scientist from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The AP poll did not ask about Social Security, although only four in 10 in the poll said they approved of Bush's handling of domestic policy in general. And a majority of people disapproved of his handling of the economy.
The AP-Ipsos consumer confidence index found people were less optimistic about the economy generally, a dip that comes after reports of sluggish job gains and increasing interest rates.
"I voted Republican, but it looks like things are going downhill," said Kenny Sproull of Lexington, Ga., who works in construction. "I'm a self-employed contractor and a lot of Mexicans are moving into the state. We can't compete with them price-wise."
Most Republicans were strongly supportive of Bush and his policies.
"I agree with almost everything President Bush says," said Beverly Bowman, a nurse who lives near Phoenix. "I think the Social Security thing has to be fixed."
The poll was a taken at a time that some leaders in both parties have begun to question elements of the president's proposal to change Social Security, said Robert Shapiro, a specialist on polling and politics at Columbia University. During that time, details of Bush's proposed 2006 budget cuts have been emerging.
A bright spot for the administration was increased confidence in the likelihood of a stable, democratic Iraq.
"From what I hear in the news, it sounds like the Iraqis really want it," said Bill Harrer, a nurse's aide in Mason City, Iowa, who considers himself a political independent. "But it's going to take a long time."
Just over four in 10, 42 percent, said they approved of the president's handling of Iraq, while 57 percent disapproved.
Since the elections that were considered fairly successful, insurgent attacks have resumed, killing both Iraqis and U.S. troops.
Many in the public are not getting the full Iraq story, said Republican William Reid of Columbus, Ohio.
Reid watches for newscasts that he says "tell the real story about the good things that are happening over there, about soldiers helping kids and giving them food."
Democrats and Republicans were sharply split on Bush and his policies.
"I'm unhappy with the whole package" of the Bush administration, said Janet Luzzi, a Democrat and a government finance director from Eureka, Calif. "The good news is that we have four more years and then we're done with him."
The poll of 1,000 adults was taken Feb. 7-9 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Just to refresh everyone's memories on the accuracy of Ipsos AP polls, Ipsols polls just plain suck:
AP Ipsos Poll: Bush, Kerry in Dead Heat Kerry 49 Bush 46 JA 47 (another biased poll from AP-Ipsos)
10/21/04
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are locked in a tie for the popular vote, according to an Associated Press poll. Voters seem open to change in the White House _ most disapprove of the president's performance at home and in Iraq _ but still harbor doubts about making the switch.
Bush's strength continues to be in a perception by voters that he is the most qualified to protect the country, though his advantage has dwindled in recent weeks. Some 56 percent say the country is on the wrong track.
In the AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards got support from 49 percent of those who said they were likely to vote, and the Republican team of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney got 46 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Oct. 18-20 survey, released Thursday, included 976 likely voters.
A spate of other polls show the race tied or give Bush a slight lead nationwide. The presidency will go to whoever gets a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes, a state-by-state chase that is just as close as national surveys.
Likely voters are divided on many levels:
_ They are just as likely to back Democrats for Congress as Republicans, with a 47-46 split favoring Democrats. That is essentially a tie.
_ Twenty-four percent say they have already voted or will cast ballots before Election Day. Those who voted early were just as likely to back Kerry as Bush.
_ A third of likely voters have been contacted by a candidate, campaign or outside group seeking support. Twenty-three percent said they were urged to back Kerry and 21 percent said they were asked to support Bush, a sign that two massive get-out-the-vote campaigns have had equal success contacting voters.
Less than half, 47 percent, approve of Bush's job performance. A rating below 50 percent spells trouble for any incumbent, and Bush falls below that threshold on the economy, domestic affairs and handling Iraq.
This is another Associated Press 'hit' poll conducted by their polling firm Ipsos-Public Affairs. Let us take a look at their January 3-5, 2005 Bush approval rating of "49% Approve, 49% Disapprove" from another FR message thread which shows how the AP poll manages to get it slant by of course, stacking the poll respondent deck...
"Bush's approval rating is at 49 percent in the AP poll with 49 percent disapproving among all of those polled. His job approval is in the high 40s or low 50s in several other recent polls — as low as any job approval rating for a re-elected president at the start of the second term in more than 50 years.Well, we just had an election where we have data from 13,660 respondents in the 2004 Presidential election poll. Let's forget that 'bad' exit poll results used for election night predictions that the MSM used and use the data the way it was supposed to be used, the characterize the voters...
2004 Exit Poll Vote by Party ID: ********************************* 37% Republican 37% Democrat 26% IndependentSource: CNN: US President/National/Exit Poll data for November 2nd, 2004.
Ok, so what was the party affiliation breakdown for the 1,001 Adults, (836 Registered voters) for the Ipsos-Public Affairs AP Poll dated January 3-5, 2005. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1% for all Adults and 3.4% for Registered voters. Now the poll sample for Registered voters was:
AP/Ipsos Project #81-5139-09 **************************** 43% Republican 49% Democrat 08% IndependentSource: Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs - Project #81-5139-09 - January 3-5, 2005.
(Note: "not sure" respondents assigned as Independents)
(Note: Older AP/IPsos polls go into Premium content after 1 month)
Ok, that was the AP/Ipsos January poll background, now we should look at this latest February Ipsos "poll" conducted for the Associated Press to see how they got the Bush presidential job approval ratings of "45% Approve, 54% Disapprove" after the successful Iraqi elections and the State of the Union address.
Ok, so what was the party affiliation breakdown for the 1,000 Adults, (849 Registered voters) for this Ipsos-Public Affairs AP Poll dated February 7-9, 2005. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1% for all Adults and 3.4% for Registered voters. Now the poll sample for Registered voters was:
AP/Ipsos Project #81-5139-19 **************************** 39% Republican 52% Democrat 09% Independent
Source: Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs - Project #81-5139-19 - February 7-9, 2005.
(Note: "not sure" respondents assigned as Independents)
That party affiliation breakdown used by AP/Ipsos for this February poll does not seem to match the latest characterization of the American Voting public according to the Exit Poll data collected from 13,660 voters on November 2nd, 2004. In fact, it looks as if the AP/Ipsos poll is again a bit slanted, shall we say, in favor of the Democrats. Gee, what happened to all the Independents? Did they just disappear for the next four years???
Furthermore, to help get the February 45% to 54% approval/disapproval job rating for President Bush, the AP/Ipsos poll chose this poll to sample "all Adults" again, instead of the "Registered Voters" who have been answering this question since February, 2004. What are the odds of that happening, again?
To summarize:
The MSM never stops trying...
dvwjr
Personally, I find so-called presidential approval ratings insulting.
What is a presidential "approval rating?" It doesn't appear anywhere in the Constitution or any law regarding the presidency. It's a fiction developed by the media and their paid polling firms, first to keep the general public buying their product (newspapers and magazines) and/or viewing their TV news programs, and second to manipulate public opinion.
I can make up my own mind as to whether or not I approve of a president's job performance. I don't need some hack reporter working with a whore pollster paid to manufacture "opinion" to tell me what to think!
I bet they also only conduct polls in Liberal media outlets ie NYC, Boston, Ithaca, NY San Fransisco, Seattle etc.
They are unbelievable in how far they will go to make Bush look bad and to try and defeat his agenda. Thanks much for that very useful info.
I think you can safely add 13% to Bush's favorability rating based on this.
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