All the parameters and assumptions are posted. The rest is statistical mechanics...calculate capabilities, determine probability of success within these capabilities. There is nothing tricky here, just simple probability and statistics...
Previous posts have been answered the same. There is no secret model. This is stubby pencil work I think any concerned party can do for himself.
As for your question, not sure what you are trying to get to here. I think tangents pursuing the number of photons in a Watt are irrelevant.