[jwalsh07]

"His second point is just wrong. It seems that he did not read what I wrote about the number of mutations that have to occur. He thinks that I wrote that 47 amino-acid differences separate the nylon bug from its evolutionary predecessor. Far from saying that all 47 have to be precisely specified, I said, “…if only 6 of these 47 mutations were essential for the evolution, the probability of achieving it in 30 years is about 3 x 10^-35.”

He also mistakenly thought that my calculation required all 6 to occur simultaneously. The calculation only assumes that they occurred within 30 years and that there is no selection for any combination other than the correct 6." Spetner

[furball4paws]

Depending on the bug, I could do those 47 amino acid changes in about 6 months, so 6 is a piece of cake. This would use modern molecular biology techniques. To use only "natural" mutational events, it might take a year or two.

The point is well taken that you cannot determine probability based on 6 mutations all occurring at one time in one bug. However, given that the average bacterial culture contains 1,000,000,000 bacteria per ml, a liter would have 1,000,000,000,000 bacteria. An average mutational rate of 1/1,000,000, means that there are 1,000,000 mutants in a liter of bacteria. Digest these numbers and you will see how easy it is to get to a nylon eating bug in a short period of time.

[Ichneumon]

[Dembski writes:] "Far from saying that all 47 have to be precisely specified, I said, “…if only 6 of these 47 mutations were essential for the evolution, the probability of achieving it in 30 years is about 3 x 10^-35.”"

I'm just *dying* to see exactly how he calculated that alleged "probability"...

It's highly suspicious that Spetner just tossed the number out without even a hint of what sort of math he used.

And any number that freakin' low for "six mutations in 30 years" in bacteria (which mutate at the drop of a hat, and have mind-bogglingly large populations and reproductive rates) seems patently bogus on its face.

Jwalsh07, would you care to email Spetner and ask to see his calculations? I can't find a recent reference to an email address for Spetner (he doesn't even seem to have a homepage or a faculty page anywhere), but lspetner@alum.mit.edu worked as of several years ago (no clue if still does).