A Medical Mystery Man Bounces Back From Avian Flu(Possible human to human transmission)

New York Time ^ | February 5, 2005 | KEITH BRADSHER

[Mother Abigail]

A Medical Mystery Man Bounces Back From Avian Flu

By ANOI, Vietnam

IT started as a mild fever and severe chills on Jan. 9 that made Nguyen Thanh Hung's teeth chatter even when his wife, a nurse, covered him with blankets.

But within two days, as the avian influenza virus took hold, his temperature soared to 106.7 degrees and peaked close to that level every day for the next five days as he struggled for life in one of this city's best hospitals. Most of his right lung collapsed, every joint ached and the far wall of his hospital room seemed to approach and recede before his eyes.

[Mother Abigail]

The greater mystery is how he caught the disease, with strong evidence that he acquired it from his older brother, not from poultry, in a worrisome sign that the virus may be developing the ability to pass from person to person.

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The World Health Organization has confirmed 14 cases of avian influenza in Vietnam this winter. Thirteen have died. Mr. Hung, 42, is the 14th case

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What happened next is one of two medical mysteries in Mr. Hung's case that have caught the attention of flu experts as they try to decipher whether his illness will come to afflict millions of people, and possibly hundreds of millions, around the world.

Unlike most people with confirmed cases of bird flu, Mr. Hung survived, for reasons that remain unclear but may have to do with his extraordinary physical fitness.

[Mother Abigail]

A NOTE OF CAUTION

I am sorry to say that my threads have become a magnet for a small group of "Freepers" who are filled with insecurity and hate.

They will not debate the substance of Epidemiology nor Virology. Their agenda is one of personal attack and vitriol.

If you post on these threads you may be attacked for being an alarmist, for your choice of reading material , your choice of a screen name etc.

As always, I would urge you to link to any sourced material, strive for transparency and seek the truth.

Darkness is afraid of the light. Let your light shine before men and God and never yield to intimidation.

Enuf said.

Let's look sharp out there, Vietnam is heating up.

MA

[mewzilla]

Wow, person-to-person? Now that's scary.

[Mother Abigail]

Date: 4 Feb 2005
From:ProMED-mail
Source: Statesman Journal, 2 Feb 2005 [edited]

http://159.54.226.83/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050202/NEWS/502020337/1001

Geese die in droves in Keizer; experts baffled

Bodies of water don't appear to be the cause

---

Geese are literally falling from the sky in and around Keizer, and wildlife experts don't know why.

About 150 Canada geese were found dead Friday at a private pond off Wheatland Road owned by Morse Bros. Rock Products in rural Marion County. 30 or so other dead birds were discovered 3 months ago near Staats Lake, a private lake in Keizer.

State wildlife officials visited both sites to investigate. The officials suspect that the birds may have died from something they ate, because it doesn't appear that anything in the pond or lake killed the birds.

"Reports of one bird here or one over there is not cause for alarm," said Will High, a wildlife biologist for the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife.

"But when you have 10 or 20 or 30 or 100 of them all of a sudden die in one day, well, that's just not normal."

Only cackling Canada geese, a small subspecies of the larger Canada goose, were affected, High said. Other varieties of birds, including ducks, gulls and 3 other species of geese were alive and well in both bodies of water.

The dead birds were found floating in the water. They appeared to swim with their heads under water, High said. Others were found on dry ground lying on their stomachs with wings flared out.

The goose carcasses have been sent to the National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wis., to be tested. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the federal agency that regulates migratory birds, also was notified.

5 years ago, large numbers of dead geese were discovered in Staats Lake. The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife studied the problem, but couldn't track down the cause. Tests showed that the birds weren't dying of infections or disease; the results were inconclusive about whether the birds died from something they ate.

Wildlife officials said that in recent weeks, large numbers of dead geese also have been found in Monmouth and McMinnville. They don't know if the incidents are related.

[philomath]

just as bad is the high acuity care required to survive; eight or ten of these cases can eat up the resources of most level-1 sized hospitals in the US

[Mother Abigail]

http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/news/nation/10825158.htm?1c


Vietnamese officials have ordered a nationwide ban on duck and goose farming in a bid to head off a mounting bird flu outbreak that has claimed 13 lives since late December.

The waterfowl are a main reservoir of the virus, carrying it without becoming ill. Without outward symptoms it is very difficult to identify infected animals.Earlier this week, Ho Chi Minh City, the nation's largest city, ordered all ducks destroyed or slaughtered for sale.

"These steps show an appreciation of the realities of the disease," said Klaus Stohr, head of the World Health Organization's global influenza program. "But they are the first steps of a marathon."

Vietnam requested help Thursday from the WHO and the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization to combat the outbreak that has spread to half of the nation's provinces. There are also outbreaks in Thailand and Cambodia.

Bird flu, formally known as avian influenza virus H5N1, raged through the region last winter, causing about 100 million birds to be culled in 10 nations. Since that time the disease has killed 45 people.

After a period of relative remission, outbreaks have surged since December.

Vietnamese and U.N. officials agreed that a team of international experts would be assembled within two weeks.The U.N. agencies will provide field and lab equipment for improving surveillance and reporting.

They also will conduct epidemiology studies and train lab personnel across the country in rapid detection of the virus. Sluggish testing and reporting previously has fostered the spread of the disease.

Kennedy Shortridge, an influenza researcher and emeritus professor of the University of Hong Kong, applauded the efforts.

"You've got to know your enemy," Shortridge said, adding that in much of Southeast Asia, "if there is a problem, you . . . sweep it under the carpet."

Concerns ratcheted up this week after the first confirmed bird flu fatality from Cambodia was reported by Vietnamese medical officials. The 25-year-old woman died in Vietnam on Sunday after crossing the border to seek care.

Her brother died a few days earlier after suffering bird flu symptoms, but Cambodian authorities said that the woman's surviving relatives showed no signs of the disease.

In Vietnam earlier this week, eight new suspected bird flu victims were hospitalized. So far this year, only one bird flu patient has fully recovered.

Health experts fear that as human infections increase, so will the likelihood that the lethal virus will mutate into a form that passes easily between people -- a recipe for a major pandemic

[Mother Abigail]

Very true.

[JustDoItAlways]

Nevermind human to human transmission (if the virus mutates and becomes easy to spread amongst humans, it will be one of the biggest messes in history) ...

... But given this virus' kill rate in birds, what happens when it gets spread into wild populations of birds around the world. How come it hasn't done so as yet?

[TaxRelief]

Some folks around here would love to know how these geese were killed off so cleverly.

We have a huge goose problem, and our hands are tied by hunting restrictions, trapping restrictions and environmentalist interference with property management.

[shubi]

There are differences in bird physiology between species. So far, it seems this virus is specific for species closely related to ducks .

But the virus seems to be evolving quickly into a new species that will be able to infect other species that the original host. The best way to stop the spread may be to quarantine all who get the disease and kill all the species of birds that harbor it.

The other alternative is to come up with a vaccine. Often, when a disease first appears in humans, it is more virulent until the host and virus make accomodations. Parasites do not do well when the kill their host.

[shubi]

There is nothing like putting on a goose infested green.

[El Gran Salseron]

Well, I know nothing of diseases or bird flu but since this is happening in Vietnam then the answer is as plain as the nose on your face. The CIA did it to get back at Vietnam, of course. </sarcasm>

[From many - one.]

Just a thought.

When smallpox was a scourge it was known that milkmaids, exposed to cowpox, were very resistant to smallpox.

Why could we not develop an avian flu vaccine that would possibly limit the damage done to humans?

Incidentally, this survivior is an invaluable source of antibodies.

[theFIRMbss]

>They will not debate the substance of Epidemiology nor Virology

>"Tests showed that the birds weren't dying of infections or disease; the results were inconclusive about whether the birds died from something they ate. "

So, you post a thread
where experts say there's NO bug,
and then you complain

that Freepers are nuts?!
We're not nuts, we just enjoy
the slapstick content!

[datura]

This isn't the first case of human to human transmission this year. Another three have died from the same family in Vietnam, with no or limited contact with any birds. It was between a mother, the mother's sister, and the daughter, IIRC, with the deaths occurring last week. The mother had only seen the daughter in the hospital 16 hours before her death, did not live in the same town as the daughter, yet came down with the avian flu and died within 48 hours. Consider the pathogen to now be airborne, and contagious.

Here on our continent, in the Fraizer Valley of BC, they have culled ALL of the chickens and ducks due to avian flu there - and yes, it was the highly contagious strain. There is concern that there may have been misdiagnosed deaths here in the US that may have been avian flu as well. As with the SARS outbreak, the ChiComs are not releasing ANY data on cases there. Time to consider anyone getting off of an airplane here that came from Vietnam or China as biological weapons.

CDC is suggesting that if this becomes a large scale outbreak here in the US, that Americans work from home whenever possible, avoid contact with other humans, and always wear surgical mask (or better) when in public. No shaking of hands. So far this year, the mortality rate is running over 70%.

If it gets loose, we really are looking at a true life version of The Stand. If nothing else, it will change the current path of humanity on this planet in ways we can't even imagine. Try to imagine 7 out of every 10 people you know dying, and in third world nations nearly 100% mortality.

Time will tell. There isn't a day that goes by now without another news story on this. It's growing.

Have you Pinged Randall Flagg to this thread?

[douglas1]

WE took in two finches one is gone, died from a bb gun, some teenagers did the dirty deed, the othe is still here, I have to handle his mess every single day, I wont be looking for anymore birds to raise this one little finch has been a pain ,because of all the precautions I have to take to keep any disease transmission ,stupid bird.

[GummyIII]

FYI

[TaxRelief]

From the article: Nobody knows when or even if the disease will evolve the ability to pass easily from person to person. If it does, researchers say they expect it to lose some of its deadliness, also noting that some people may already be catching the disease now without falling sick enough to attract attention.

From JustDoItAlways: ...if the virus mutates and becomes easy to spread amongst humans, it will be one of the biggest messes in history

I guess virologists don't think it's going to be that big a deal, eh?

[Domestic Church]

Hope someone has tapped that survivor and started making a vaccine!

[Judith Anne]

Thanks for the ping and the update.

Do you know if there are any China figures? I'm wondering if I missed reading them on another thread...