2005: The Splintering of the Democratic Party

A Publius Essay | 3 February 2005 | Publius

[Sam the Sham]

It is finished on the national level. No Democratic presidential candidate is going to run on it. It is very much alive and well in states where suburban socker moms vie with rural voters.

[Josef1235]

Well-said.

In fact, I wish I had my tape recorder handy when Carlson took a call about some bas---d in King County Elections during the recounts who wanted to avenge Florida.

I SOOOO want to tell them, "Look, you lose some. You win some. Move forward. But do the moral thing."

And I won't forget the arrogant response of Gray Davis to the populist uprising of 2003...

[hershey]

Well done.

[uncitizen]

WoW! That essay blew me away! goodbyyyyyyyyyyye.

[Fiddlstix]

[Drango]

Very nice post...now get back to work:-)

[DoctorMichael]

Bump for later reading.

[jmc813]

Damn(and don't say I am cussing unless you also condemn Rhett Butler) JMC, you are following(stalking) me like a scared hillary staffer.

I was just joshing, boring day at work and all.

No matter, you all in hillary's basement must be feeling mighty low right now, especially after GW's speech last night

Quite the oppisite actually. I usually think that political speeches are useless, regardless of who is giving them, but I think last night's speech was an exception to this. The way he explained Social Security reform was outstanding IMO.

[Clemenza]

Ethnic blue collar Democrats were liberal on economic issues and had agreed that the situation in the South was intolerable, but there was no such consensus on de facto segregation in the North. When the courts went beyond the law and ordered busing to promote racial balance, the future Reagan Democrats became angry. Thanks to the rising tide of Black Nationalism and the violence of urban insurrections, sympathy with the problems of black America began to wane.

True, but if the "ethnic blue collar Democrats" were still a factor, we would have won New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Illinois and Wisconsin.

The children of these "white ethnics" move up to white collar jobs and either became socially liberal yuppies (my aunt) or moderately conservative (though NOT socially conservative) Pubbies like my dad. Many white Catholics in the upper midwest and the northeast saw their "nay-bah-hoods" as cultural prisons that inhibited upward mobility. But that's a topic for another essay...

BTW: GOOD JOB!!!

[Clemenza]

Perot was a quack, and his supporters were a bunch of disgruntled postal-types and American Splendor rejects.

[Clemenza]

You see this?

Its the sound of the world's smallest violin, playing...

Smokestack America is all but dead. We still manufacture goods prodcutively and more efficiently thanks to increased automation. Being that you have probably never stepped foot into one of the newer factories, you probably think that we need places that employ 30,000 people. Guess, what THE INDUSTRIAL LABOR FORCE HAS DECLINED ON A GLOBAL BASIS AS A SHARE OF THE TOTAL LABOR FORCE DUE TO TECHNOLOGICAL EFFICIENCY! If "outsourcin'" was "screwin' the Amurcan Werkin' man" as you say, how come people in Brazil, Mexico and even Korea are complaining about there not being the industrial jobs that there used to be.

Efficiency & low prices are good. Consumer choice is good. I'd probably meet you halfway and agree that "dumping" is evil and that trade agreements that don't bind both parties to the same rules are bad, but, other than that, I am a PROUD Free Trader.

[Sam the Sham]

In this post and your prior one you missed it.

Non college educated workers have been steadily losing ground since 1971. Their culture is conservative but their economics are populist.

The Northeast and particularly the New York metro area have suffered heavily economically since 9/11. On "are you better off now than you were four years ago" there was little hope for Bush to carry much of the Northeast.

[Sam the Sham]

"If "outsourcin'" was "screwin' the Amurcan Werkin' man" as you say, how come people in Brazil, Mexico and even Korea are complaining about there not being the industrial jobs that there used to be ?"

Ever heard of China ?

[Clemenza]

Maybe you don't live in the Northeast but I can tell you who lives there now (particularly NYC and its New Jersey and Connecticut suburbs): 1. Investment Bankers who tend to lean Republican slightly, although their wives are almost exclusively liberal Democrats 2. Hipsters who work in the fashion and media industries, reliable Democrats all, 3. Government employees (ditto, with the exception of cops and fireman), 4. Immigrants (and not just the poor Mexicans/Dominicans) who provide the small business class in the cities and inner suburbs, but also provide much of the unskilled labor force.

The "white werkin man" has disappeared from the tri-state area, with the exception of a few old timers upstate. He is an insignificant part of the electorate.

Besides with real estate as expensive as it is in NY/NJ/CT, your only options for survival are high level white collar employment or living 10 to a VERY SMALL house like two neighbors of min, two Pakistani cabdrivers and their families, did.

[Clemenza]

Housing prices going up, bonuses going up, yeah, NYC and the 'burbs are REALLY SUFFERING!

[Clemenza]

BTW: The only Bush states where the Perot voters would be a factor are Ohio and Iowa, with the possbility of further defections from Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and New Mexico.

New York and New Jersey would only vote for a RINO like Giuliani.

[Sam the Sham]

Gee, that's funny.

I have lived in the Northeast all my life.

And I am sure aware that for every Hoboken there are a dozen Edisons and Moonachies. I sure am aware that light industry and the ubiquitous pharmaceutical firms of Somerset and Morris counties abound in blue collar workers. Not everyone lives in $900,000 houses in Alpine or a Camden ghetto or an overpriced condo in Jersey City. Ever been to places like Garfield or Carlstadt or Teterboro or Raritan ? Blue collar through and through.

[Sam the Sham]

Apparently you don't know anyone that earns less than six figures in the NY metro area. And as for housing prices there is always such an influx of people from elsewhere that housing prices have not corrected.

Unemployment in NY metro has stayed well above the national average.

[Sam the Sham]

A Perot style candidate would be a ferocious immigration hawk. So kiss the Southwest goodbye.

[meema]

I'm looking forward to studying your newest essay, Publius.