Posted on 02/03/2005 9:04:20 AM PST by Publius
One thing you notice about places like Linden, Garbagefield, etc., is the fact that they are filled with elderly people. Why is that? Because in many cases, their children did what my dad did and went to college, which in turn allows them to move on to more prosperous lives, either in nicer towns or elsewhere in the U.S.
Those blue collar towns you mentioned are being repopulated in many cases with Asian and Latin American immigrants. Its the cycle of life, my friend. Why get nostalgic about it?
Besides, a blue collar Portuguese American living in Ironbound can sell their tiny rowhouse for $280,000 and buy an even bigger place out in Pennsylvania for less money. There's no reason to remain in such places if you're upwardly mobile.
In the case of NYC, the unemployment is due to entire generations living in the projects. Much as I despise illegal immigration, I can see why Korean deli owners are much more likely to hire Jose who shows up on time and keeps his mouth shut, as opposed to a kid from the Marcy projects who shows up late and mouths off to the customers.
Ronald Reagan was a big supporter of Goldwater, and his speech in favor of Goldwater got him started in electoral politics. In his last years though, Goldwater was critical of the GOP's social conservatism. His wife had been involved with Planned Parenthood, and abortion and homosexuality were a part of his family tree.
Bush lost votes for those reasons. He also won votes because of 9/11 and the war. Which group was larger? And which is more likely to stay where they are and which to return to their old loyalties? I don't know. Maybe they balance out.
In analyzing the current situation, it also seems that the Dems have been paralyzed by their cult of personality of Bush. I was amazed by the instant mythology they built around him like construction scaffolding the moment he showed up on the national scene. Bush was known as the son of Bush41, a pretty mild political figure, and as a governor who had earned huge Democrat support in Texas. Yet the Hitler-Halliburton stuff took off like wildfire before it possibly could have even were it a fraction true. It was an overnight mythology.
Now Bush has been broadly successful and popular, but the Dems cannot touch him with a 10-foot pole because they convinced so many of their supporters that to do so would be shaking hands with Satan. They are locked in to a radical position by the severity of their own rhetoric and the effectiveness of their own brainwashing efforts.
Publius: Very interesting insight...
New England is where American political parties go to die.
Upon reflection, there is a lot of truth in this. And it's not only the Federalists in early American History and the Democrats in recent history.
After all, where was the last redoubt of the Rockefeller Republicans? As late as the Eisenhower administration, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont were all referred to as "rock-ribbed Republican states", were they not? Even Massachusetts was the preserve of the Republican Lodges.
The ascendancy of Goldwater conservatives in the Republican party eventual flushed out the Rockefeller Republicans -- a decaying breed whose only surviving members are Sens. Snowe, Collins and Chaffee, all centered in New England.
I'd never thought of it quite that way, but New England does serve as a kind of political boneyard, doesn't it?
Except the Populists were midwestern and southern; the "know-nothings" were everywhere, but not particularly in the NE; and the dixiecrats southern.
We did win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but our victory was stolen from us in Philadelphia and Milwaukee by the ballot box stuffers.
And then the Republicans will become corrupt.
We must always be alert. We must hold our leaders accountable and not get complacent.
And Ill never believe that boob Kerry got 48% of the vote. That crack-for-voter- registrations drive in Toledo was just the tip of the iceberg. Excellent read, BTW, it should be included in future textbooks to explain the demise of the Clinton party..
Tell me about it, although three members of my family who live in the Keystone state voted for Kerry (barf!) including my devout Catholic Uncle who "didn't want to see his children get drafted for an unjust war."
National Unemployment Rate: December 2004: 5.2%
New Jersey: 4.2%
What's this you were saying about unemployment in New Jersey being ABOVE the national average?
Lets look at the other states in the area:
Connecticut: 4.3%
Again, WELL below the national rate, but not as good as New Jersey's.
You may have a slight point with my home state:
New York: 5.3%. That's about the same as the national average. If we cut off upstate and the project people (aka welfare cases), its unemployment rate would compare favorably with that of New Jersey and Connecticut.
So much for a "economic suffering" in the northeast.
ping
Kudos, Sir!
".....One thing that can be disastrous for a political party is for it to get everything it wants......."
Lets hope the Pubbies don't over-reach.
Interesting read and some good reflections.
Only point I'd bring up (everybody's a critic, no?) is that Dean was initially a favorite among Democratic insiders. I think this is an important insight to the soul of those who run the party. Even after Kerry got the nod, Dem voters couldn't really gin up enthusiasm, (except for bitter jibes at Bush). Like the Dole nomination however, the insiders went with their core, despite ultimate unelectability and lack of genuine popular support.
If the Dems make another sham lurch to the center (into which the new & improved Hillary is trying to triangulate herself), it will be against their innermost beliefs. But to retain power, they'll do it.
bump for a great analysis. I think it might be true that the Democrats are a party of special interests with divergent and unpopular agendas, hardly the stuff that builds a coalition.
For the Presidential race in 2008 it will come down to the personalities as it always does, our celebrity driven society is not as discerning as it should be.
This is why congressional Democrats are dancing with congressional Republicans over a constitutional amendment that would open the door for Arnold to run -- but also open the door to another Bill Clinton presidency. They've seen Hillary from the inside and know she can't win. They want more of Bill.
But my guess is that by 2008 there won't be a Democratic Party for either of them.
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