A Kurdish man plays a zurle, a traditional flute, as people dance in celebration in front of Kurdish Democratic Party headquarters in the village of Chira, northern Iraq, Monday, Jan. 31. 2005. Large turnout of Kurdish people, even in Mosul governorate, makes supporters believe that Kurdish parties will gain substantial number of votes in Iraqi national and local election. (AP Photo/Sasa Kralj)
Iraq Insurgents' Failure Raises Questions
Mon Jan 31, 4:50 PM ET
By SALLY BUZBEE, Associated Press Writer
BAGHDAD, Iraq - They sent nine suicide bombers, killed more than 40 people, claimed to have shot down a British military plane and threatened to wash the streets with blood.
Insurgents' threats against Iraq's historic election appeared to have some impact, keeping Sunni Arab turnout low in certain areas when Iraqis voted Sunday. Yet the rebels did not stop the balloting altogether, raising questions of just how much ability and influence they have.
"There will still be some acts of violence," Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi said Monday, claiming the elections had dealt the insurgency a major blow. "But the terrorists now know that they cannot win."
The elections were hailed as a success around the world, including in Sunni Arab countries like Jordan.
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw suggested the elections dealt a psychological setback to the insurgents because it demonstrated Iraqis were committed to democracy.
"Yesterday's elections represent a real blow to this disgusting campaign of violence and intimidation," Straw said in London. "These elections were a moving demonstration that democracy and freedom are universal values, to which people everywhere aspire."
Other Iraqi and U.S. officials cautioned that the insurgents are nowhere near being on the ropes. And the Monday airing of a videotape claiming Islamic militants had shot down a British military plane on election day, killing 10 Britons, indicated they may still try for spectacular attacks.
Jordanian terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's militant group also pledged Monday to continue its attacks in Iraq despite the election. In a statement published on the Internet, the al-Qaida group in Iraq said the elections "will increase our strength and intention to get rid of injustice."
"Let Bush, Blair ... know that we are the enemies of democracy," the group said of the American president and British prime minister.
Nevertheless, the insurgents' failure to launch a catastrophic attack on election day may be a sign their power "has been more localized than thought previously," said Paul Sullivan, an Iraq expert at the U.S.-funded National Defense University in Washington.
It's possible insurgency leaders will lay low for a while. Or they may try for a quick, big attack to prove they are still potent, Sullivan said.
Violence in Iraq calmed for several weeks last summer after the U.S. handover of sovereignty to Iraqis, perhaps because insurgents wanted to devise a new strategy. But the violence soon broke out again, especially in heavily Sunni cities like Fallujah.
Iraq's interior minister, Falah al-Naqib, said Monday he did not think the election would stop the insurgents altogether. He claimed the rebels had used a handicapped child to carry out one of nine suicide bombings Sunday, calling it a sign of their depravity. Police at one Baghdad blast said the bomber did appear to have Down syndrome.
The attacks in all led to roughly 40 deaths — not extraordinary by Iraqi standards — leaving many to wonder why the rebels did not do more.
A higher-than-usual U.S. troop presence and extremely tight security may have helped tamp down the violence.
But many of the most extreme security measures — like a ban on most private driving and the closing of the country's borders and airport — are only temporary, said Jeremy Binnie, a London-based analyst for Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Center.
The number of U.S. troops, now at 150,000 because of rotation overlap, already is scheduled to drop soon to 138,000.
It's also possible the insurgents simply chose not to strike, worried they would get caught, Binnie said.
Some U.S. and Iraqi officials gave the credit to Iraqi troops who guarded the polls. Allawi praised one who died while successfully keeping a suicide attacker from a polling site.
Marine Capt. Corey Collier of the 1st Battalion Second Marines, patrolling in the so-called "triangle of death" south of Baghdad, said Iraqi soldiers stayed at their posts when rockets fell during voting in the town of Musayyib.
But a U.S. diplomat in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Iraqi troops' success on election day doesn't necessarily mean they can defeat the insurgency going forward. The official predicted some insurgents may decide to ratchet up attacks.
He also noted that "anecdotal evidence" indicates Sunni participation was "considerably lower" than other groups.
That means the insurgents may have largely succeeded at their main election day goal — suppressing Sunni turnout, said Ken Katzman, an Iraq expert at the Congressional Research Service in Washington.
The main Shiite faction is likely to win the most votes and take the biggest role in the new government. Because of that, Sunnis "now feel certain that they are at the mercy of the Shiites," who comprise 60 percent of the population, Katzman said.
And that means the election, despite relatively low violence, probably will not "produce the factional reconciliation" hoped for, he said.
