Posted on 01/30/2005 4:06:07 PM PST by Brian Mosely
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraq pulled off an election against all odds and the best efforts of insurgents to blow it up.
Now comes the hard part: forming a new governing coalition, writing a constitution and winning trust.
Achieving those goals will be tough because the election was tempered by the absence of many of the Sunni Arabs, who honored a boycott call and avoided the polls.
Without Sunni support, even among those who stayed home on election day, the new leadership is unlikely to win the public support necessary to quell the insurgency and speed the day when 150,000 U.S. troops can go home. Sunni Arabs are 20 percent of Iraq's 26 million population and the core of the insurgency.
"The most critical period is going to be the next 60 to 90 days while the results are being worked out," said James Dobbins of the Rand Corp. "If the winners treat it as a winner-take-all contest in the American tradition, it's probably going to further polarize the country and bring higher levels of violence."
Yet such pessimistic assessments were not in the air Sunday.
Iraqi officials were nearly euphoric that they pulled off the election at all, given the enormous challenge of organizing a nationwide balloting in the midst of an insurgency where candidates were murdered, election workers threatened and polling stations blasted.
Only two months ago, some of the very politicians crowing about the success of Sunday's balloting were openly calling for a delay, arguing it was simply too dangerous right now.
When the day actually came, turnout was heavy in Shiite and Kurdish areas.
By all accounts, however, turnout in Sunni areas of central, western and northern Iraq - the heartland of the rebellion - was only modest. Iraqi election officials said no official turnout figures would be available until all the votes are counted - possibly within the next 10 days.
But residents of Sunni cities such as Beiji, Samarra, Ramadi and Tikrit reported turnouts well below those of Shiite areas of the south and Kurdish strongholds in the north.
Journalists who visited polling stations in Mosul, Iraq's third largest city, found large numbers of Kurds lined up to vote but fewer Sunni Arabs, although they are the largest community there.
Sunni Arabs may have voted in greater numbers in mixed areas of Baghdad and other cities, where pressure to boycott was less intense than in the Sunni heartland.
Nevertheless, the apparent low turnout in the Sunni provinces of Anbar, Salaheddin and Ninevah and in Baghdad's Sunni neighborhood of Azamiyah raises questions about whether Sunni Arabs will believe they have a stake in the new government - or in the new Iraq.
The new leadership could take a major step toward winning Sunni trust by ensuring a major Sunni role in the drafting of the new constitution - the major task of the 275-member National Assembly during its 11 months in office.
If all goes according to plan, the constitution will define power among Iraq's disparate groups - Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkomen and others.
And - significantly - it will provide the legal foundation for another election in December.
If the Sunnis believe they have received a fair share of power, support for the insurgency might wane.
Adnan Pachachi, a Sunni elder statesman and candidate for the National Assembly, believes a Sunni role in drafting the constitution would go far toward easing disaffection.
"The main thing, I think, is we should really have a constitution written by representatives of all segments of Iraq's population," Pachachi said. "I think it would improve the security situation" - and encourage more Sunnis to vote when that December election comes around.
--
AP correspondent Robert H. Reid, a former Cairo bureau chief, has reported on Iraq since 2002.
AP-ES-01-30-05 1659EST
While AP ignored the blatant fact, today, Sunday, was an historic moment in the life of freedom and democracy. I think they kind of avoided that positive note. Any sucsess for any real American President, as GWB, for that matter.
Didn't take long to move the goal posts. Six months ago these goal posts could never be reached and had to be extended.
Round 92...first the hard part was going to be the war, then urban fighting, then a refugee crisis, then an environmental crisis, then the interim government, etc. etc. etc. It's all hard but hard hasn't stopped the coalition or the Iraqis yet.
No, Mr Reid, today was the hard part.
Notice the emphasis is all on the low turn-out among the 20% of the population that is Sunni--not the high turn-out among the other 80% that is Shia or Kurdish. And of course the low turn-out among the 20% brings into question the legitimacy of the election, but the high turn-out among 80% of the population means nothing to its legitimacy. Classic media bias. Every fact in the article is true, but what is emphasized is misleading.
But what about all the Iraqis "disenfranchised" due to long lines at polling places? Where's Jesse, the pig Kennedy, Dowd . . .
Yep! The war was going to cost 10000 American lives and 100s of 1000s of Iraqi lives,and, and, and-----Wrong then-WRONG NOW!
Lets remind these morons that the Sunnis ran Iraq under Saddam and that he wasn't a nice guy as they like to paint him.Today was a legitimate election, the first one in Iraq in fifty years and they were dancing in the streets with joy.
About the same number of Americans thing Bush stole the election using his lap top and we get along.
So now it's all about the 80% Shiite and Kurd majority reaching out to the Saddam supporting Sunnis. Sorta reminds me of the Dems insisting that after solidifying their hold over all three branches of the federal government this past November, it's time for Republicans to "reach across the aisle".
Tell the man governing is like writing for AP... any fool can do it
AP: "Successful Iraq Elections: The Quagmire Deepens!"
Here comes the hard part: the press "getting it" and reporting in a fair and balanced way.
Here comes the EASY part: not giving any creedence to the Associated Press, CNN, MSNBC, or any of the major networks or news magazines.
File in the "Chicken Little" file.
Isn't that the truth? First it was, you don't have enough troops; then, it was, you'll get slaughtered by the fierce Republican Guard; then, loss of life on the American side could be in 10s of thousands; then, Saddam is a crafty bastard, you'll never find him; then, there's too much violence to have a June 30 hand-over; then, there's too much violence to have a Jan. 30 election, etc. In the same vein, every three months is a defining moment for the Bush presidency, or this is the speech that George Bush can't afford to screw up! *yawn*
Now Comes the Hard Part
The hard part is getting the AP to shut up.
So, who's all on this AP Editorial board, other than Robert Reid?
Denny Crane: "I want two things. First God and then Fox News."
Why should forming a government be difficult when large numbers of Iraqis just risked their lives to vote for it? People like the author sound like apologists for totalitarianism. After all, democracy is just too hard for some people.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.