Posted on 01/29/2005 12:47:27 PM PST by demlosers
[US News]: WASHINGTON: Seventy-six percent of Iraq's minority Sunni Arabs plan to boycott Sunday's election, according to a new poll by Zogby International for Abu Dhabi Television.
The poll released yesterday of 805 Iraqi adults living in Iraq also showed that 69 percent of Iraq's Shi'ite population and 82 percent of Sunni Arabs favored a rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces either immediately, or after an elected government is in place.
''There are deep divisions that exist, divisions that are so deep and pronounced that this election, instead of bringing people together, may very well tear them apart,'' said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute and the host of Abu Dhabi TV's ''Viewpoint'' program.
The poll, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, showed that just nine percent of Sunni Arabs were likely to vote in the Jan. 30 election, while about 80 percent of Shi'ites were likely to or definitely planned to vote.
The survey was conducted in Baghdad, Hilla, Kerbala and Kirkuk, as well as the provinces of Diala and Anbar from Jan. 19 through Jan. 23.
Half the Shi'ites polled and 64 percent of the Sunnis believed the United States would ''hurt'' Iraq over the next five years, while the Kurds say they believed the United States would help the country.
Zogby, also an analyst for the polling company run by his brother, John Zogby, said he was particularly troubled by the survey's finding that 53 percent of Sunni Arabs believed that ongoing attacks in Iraq were a legitimate form of resistance.
''With this group already boycotting the election, this makes for a very violent combination,'' James Zogby said.
Three in five Iraqis, or 59 percent, said they favored a governmental system that allowed citizens to practice their own religion, while 34 percent favored an Islamic government.
The Zogby poll showed that 62 percent of Sunnis favored postponing the election, while 84 percent of Shi'ites said the election should proceed as planned.
The election is for a 275-member National Assembly that will oversee the drafting of a permanent constitution.
Some 280,000 overseas Iraqis have registered to vote, while 13 million Iraqis at home are eligible to cast their ballots. (Agencies)
This is good news for us. Zogby's sorry track record means the election will be a success.
He's probably right about the Sunnis. And if that's the case, who cares. They're only shooting themselves in the foot, and they deserve it.
...and if they do sit it out...too bad for them. Millions of Americans sit out each election. That's their choice but is to their loss.
Kinda tough when you can't win in the arena of ideas.
Zogby only wishes his numbers were correct. That guy seems to have turned into a real putz!
Sounds like a case of "If I can't win, I don't wanna play."
Dodn't Zogby predict a landslide for Kerry in 2004?
Send the Florida counters over to psychically ascertain how the Sunnis MEANT to vote, if they would vote.
The good news is that they are FREE to boycott the election if they want. I boycotted one up here and guess what, nobody cared. If you wish to forfeit your vote, so be it.
"This election is Kerry's to lose." Brilliant piece of butt-cover: either way he gets to say "See, I told you so!"
Hillary will be new prez in Iraq.
Zogby is pathetic, still hoping Saddam will return to power.
At 5 pm on election Tuesday, Nov.2, Zogby predicted Kerry with 311 electoral votes, and Bush with 210, and posted that on his website big time.
I forgot to mention in #17 that Zogby's prediction was based on 958 phone calls to 'anticipated' voters across the U.S., according to his website. Zogby has previously been widely criticized by other pollsters because he won't really describe his sampling methodology, and it's joked that he uses a 'secret sauce' to get the results he wants.
Zogby's tossing around some pretty large numbers there, however, he doesn't mention that the Sunni's are only 20% of the population. So, by saying that 76% of Sunnis would boycott, he's really saying that only 15% of Iraqis will boycott.
-PJ
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.