And They're Off! (The 2008 GOP handicapping begins)

The Weekly Standard ^ | January 31, 2005 | Duncan Currie

[RWR8189]

TOO EARLY FOR REPUBLICANS TO fret about 2008? Never! Before last week's inaugural fireworks had even been lit, the handicapping of 2008 Republican hopefuls was well underway. GOP sources slice the potential '08ers into an A-list and a B-list. Here's a quick roundup of who's where, as President Bush kicks off Act Two. First the A-listers:

* John McCain. To conservative eyes, the Arizona senator has a lengthy rap sheet. McCain championed campaign-finance reform. He piqued the Christian Right in 2000. He opposed Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. He supports embryonic stem-cell research. And he's backed a host of other media-friendly issues--anti-tobacco legislation, a patients' bill of rights, gun control, CO2 emissions caps--that conservatives spurn.

But after the 2004 election, McCain's star is rising. He campaigned robustly for President Bush. That helped quash the residual bitterness of 2000. Also, McCain gave a superb speech at the Republican convention, in which he made a cogent case for the Iraq war. Still, his maverick bent will prove a burden. McCain's other big minus? He turns 72 in 2008. His big plus? Thanks to his Vietnam heroism and crossover appeal, he's the candidate Democrats fear most.

* Rudy Giuliani. It's hard to gauge how badly the Bernard Kerik fiasco hurts Giuliani long-term. On the one hand, the ex-mayor remains wildly popular and can thrill Republican crowds. On the other, Rudy's rivals will no doubt hang Kerik around his neck (along with Giuliani's two divorces and marital infidelity). But leave Kerik aside. Giuliani's true Achilles' heel is his social liberalism. He supports abortion rights--even partial-birth--and same-sex marriage. Ditto gun control. To win a GOP primary, Rudy must pipe up about his conservative strengths, namely, fighting bad guys at home and abroad. For no matter how weak his hand might appear, Giuliani still holds two aces: his remarkable transformation of New York City and his post-9/11 resiliency.

Of course, as memories of 9/11 recede, so might Giuliani's stature as "America's mayor." He could always boost his stock with a successful Senate or gubernatorial bid in 2006. Rudy "will be an early frontrunner," says one GOP insider. But "ultimately, I don't think he gets nominated."

* Bill Frist. Unlike Giuliani's and McCain's, Frist's fortunes are partly tied to President Bush. As Senate majority leader, Frist will earn credit--or blame--based on how much of the Bush agenda he shepherds through. If Bush gets tax, Social Security, or tort reform, it will be a feather in Frist's cap. He has a two-year window. Self-term limited, Frist won't seek reelection in 2006.

The Tennessee senator projects an amiable, mild demeanor. But he is no moderate Republican. Certainly in a three-way Giuliani-McCain-Frist race, Frist would stand out as a staunch conservative. He would also be the GOP establishment's choice. Frist may lack the dynamism and perceived toughness of Giuliani and McCain. But post-2004 election, he sounds hardened, especially when talking judges.

* Mitt Romney. He could be the sleeper candidate. Of all the A-listers, Romney is the only governor. And historically, as conservative activist Grover Norquist points out, "governors trump senators." Many governors lack real homeland security credentials--but not Romney. He can tout his work as chief of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. Nor is Romney a Massachusetts Republican in the William Weld mold. He's much more conservative, proposing hefty tax relief and bucking his state's highest court on same-sex marriage. Also, as a GOP insider notes, Romney is good on TV and "richer than Steve Forbes."

Romney's baggage? He's famously fuzzy on abortion. Primary voters won't like that. Then there's his faith. Will evangelical Christians pull the lever for a Mormon? An awkward question, but one Republicans have raised. Perhaps sensing this, Romney met with a gathering of evangelicals last week in Washington, before hosting a reception for Bay State natives serving in the Bush administration.

Now for the B-listers:

* Bill Owens. Colorado's governor once seemed a prime candidate. Conservatives loved him. He had taken on a bevy of Democratic interest groups and emerged triumphant. A September 2002 National Review cover story proclaimed Owens "America's Best Governor." Several months later, he pushed through a landmark school-voucher bill. Since then, however, Owens separated from his wife of almost 30 years. And in the 2004 election, Colorado Republicans took a thrashing, losing both houses of the state legislature. Owens can claim a slew of conservative feats. But he lacks a fundraising base, and his '08 prospects seem to be fading.

* Chuck Hagel. "Hagel has kind of fallen off the map," says a leading GOP strategist. Nebraska's maverick senator certainly strikes a unique pose. Hagel serves up red meat on abortion, taxes, guns, and spending, but also tends toward a dovish view of U.S. foreign policy. In 2002, he criticized Bush's "axis of evil" phrase as "name-calling" and rebuked the "rush to wage war" in Iraq. More recently, Hagel, a Vietnam vet, slammed Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld over the war's conduct. Such anti-Bush positions will hardly endear him to rank-and-file Republicans.

* George Allen. As one GOP insider puts it, Virginia's junior senator would be the "conservative's conservative" in the race, à la Phil Gramm in 1996. But whereas Gramm came across as a curmudgeon, Allen, 52, sports youthful good looks and an easygoing charm. He also boasts executive experience. Allen governed Virginia from 1994 to 1998. A reliable pro-life tax-cutter, he sits just to the right of George W. Bush. "Allen runs as Ronald Reagan," predicts Norquist.

* George Pataki. Not only is he the most liberal Republican in the '08 pool, Gov. Pataki also finds himself overshadowed by fellow New Yorker Rudy Giuliani. Pataki's only saving grace could be his home state. Were he able to deliver New York, that would cripple the Democrats. Otherwise, Pataki doesn't have much going for him.

This list is far from exhaustive. One of the most enticing--but very unlikely--candidates remains Dick Cheney. A few right-wingers have already pondered a quixotic "Draft Cheney" campaign, urging Bush's VP to throw his hat in the ring. Cheney has long disavowed any interest in the presidency. But with ample prodding, and a solid second term for Bush, who knows?

Then, of course, there's Florida governor Jeb Bush, whom the Economist calls "the best candidate by far." Jeb has publicly ruled out a White House bid in 2008. But his paper trail makes him a conservative glamour boy. The genial Jeb is a pro-life, pro-voucher, tax-slashing, budget-trimming Reaganite. Absent a marquee '08er, Republicans will look favorably on Gov. Bush--and wish he had a different last name.

 

Duncan Currie is an editorial assistant at The Weekly Standard.

[Liberty Valance]

Colin Powell

[Verginius Rufus]

Powell is eligible, but I don't think he wants to put himself through the primaries, and might not do all that well with the kind of people who are likely to vote in the Republican primaries (since he's more a Democrat than a Republican in many areas).

Sen. Brownback was touted in a piece in The Weekly Standard some time back...but he's virtually unknown at this point.

[ntnychik]

From David Gregory's recent interview with Karl Rove:

Gregory: Where is Karl Rove on Election Night 2008?

Rove: I'm, hopefully, sitting in the private quarters of the White House handing the phone to the president of the United States for him to congratulate his Republican successor.

Gregory: Will you work for another candidate?

Rove: No, not for president.

Google Karl Rove 2008 for the whole interview.

[gop_gene]

(do we really want a president named "mitt"?)

He's a good enough looking guy that he could get away with having a name like "Chip" or "Skippy." I'd rather have him anyday than someone like the conventionally-named (dreadfully common if you ask me) Frankenstein horse-faced Kerry.

[BlackbirdSST]

Man, this thread needs a RINO Stampede alert. Tancredo or 3rd Party. Blackbird.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

The only ones I would even consider are George Allen and Jeb Bush.

I like these, too. Do you think Allen can make it? Senators don't have a good track record and Jeb says he doesn't want it.

I am an activist in Iowa and I don't see how any of the others will appeal to the conservatives here. If we are to assume that a candidate has to be among the top three to survive Iowa, we have to have a better field.

[oceanview]

its the right that wants to disqualify Rudy over his "messy" divorce. Almost all men who divorce, have a girlfriend, let's not be naive about this. He could have been more discreet, but its kind of hard to do when the manhattan press is chasing you around the city with cameras, and when your soon to be ex-wife gets alot of media attention to trash talk you.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

There's more to it than that. He's also pro-abortion, pro-homosexuality, and pro-gun control, plus other things. Why, come to think about it, is he a Republican?

[NorCoGOP]

* Bill Owens. Colorado's governor once seemed a prime candidate. Conservatives loved him. He had taken on a bevy of Democratic interest groups and emerged triumphant. A September 2002 National Review cover story proclaimed Owens "America's Best Governor." Several months later, he pushed through a landmark school-voucher bill. Since then, however, Owens separated from his wife of almost 30 years. And in the 2004 election, Colorado Republicans took a thrashing, losing both houses of the state legislature. Owens can claim a slew of conservative feats. But he lacks a fundraising base, and his '08 prospects seem to be fading.

Duncan also forgets his biggest blunder, at least in the eyes of at least the Colorado GOP: pulling out the rug under Schaffer to back Pete Coors, simply because of the bottom line Coors had to bring to the Senate race.

Too many Colorado GOP members will simply never forgive him...hence many of the "boos" he received when introduced at the Colorado Republican State Convention this year.

[Paladin2]

Looks like you are correct, though Nixon was only a Senator for 2 years. I didn't remember that. I didn't remember that he was a veteran either.

It would also seem that he really didn't have a great deal of true administrative experience. That could have contributed to his problems.

******************

The nation's thirty-seventh chief executive is most often remembered for the political scandal that marred his presidency. Here are some lesser-known facts about Nixon, before and after his time in the White House:

* Nixon grew up the second of five sons and was raised as a Quaker. His mother's family had been active in the Society of Friends(Quaker) religion for two hundred years.

* He graduated third in his class from Duke University law school in 1937.

* While in law school, Nixon showed interest in a career with the F.B.I.

* Nixon's first job was in a law firm in Whittier, CA, the town in which his alma mater, Whittier College, was located.

* While at work in Whittier and the neighboring town of La Habra, Nixon was active in a local amateur theater group.

* In 1942, Nixon joined the navy and served with the Naval Air Transport for the bulk of the war. Immediately after being discharged from the navy at the end of the war, Nixon ran for his first elected position. He won a seat in the House of Representatives, from California's 12th district in 1946.

* While a member of congress, Nixon served on the House Un-American Activities Committee (a rare assignment for a freshman congressman) and was active in the prosecution of Alger Hiss for alleged communist activities.

* After two terms in the House of Representatives, Nixon ran for a senate seat and easily defeated popular liberal Democrat Helen Gahagan Douglas.

* Nixon had less than two years experience in the Senate when he was chosen to run for vice-president on Dwight Eisenhower's ticket. When they won, he became the second youngest vice-president in history.

* In his two terms as vice-president, Nixon visited fifty-six countries. He was the target of hostile protesters during a 1958 visit to Peru and Venezuela and engaged in the "kitchen debate" with Soviet Premier Nikita Krushchev.

* Nixon lost his first bid for president to John F. Kennedy in 1960. After the loss, he returned to California and worked for a Los Angeles law firm while writing his memoirs, Six Crises(1962).

* After losing a 1962 gubernatorial campaign in California, Nixon moved to New York City where he began work with a Wall Street law firm.

* Nixon's youngest daughter, Julie, married President Dwight Eisenhower's grandson, David Eisenhower in 1968. * In 1972, Nixon easily won re-election in his presidential race, but the Democrats won control of both houses of congress.

* In 1974, the House Judiciary Committee advised that Nixon be impeached for his role in covering up the Watergate affair, abuse of power, and his refusal to honor subpoenas issued by the committee.

* Gerald Ford was sworn in after Nixon resigned on August 8, 1974. Ford pardoned him on September 8, 1974, for any federal crimes he may have committed during his presidency.

[mountainfolk]

Rudy disqualified himself. That is the political reality and not a judgment on my part. He is twice divorced. Married to first wife 14 years. Second one about the same. Then there have been rumors of affairs in between and during this time. I doubt that it is only the right that frowns on such a history of impermanence. Hillary stayed with Bill because even her crowd prefers a married dalliance to divorce. I personally like Rudy but he is damaged goods as far as being electable to the presidency. Just my opinion.

[firewalk]

.

[PhiKapMom]

I agree with you on Romney! Not going to fly well in the southern part of the Country.

[PhiKapMom]

Senator Allen was Governor Allen from Virginia before running for the Senate. So he has the Executive experience.

[PhiKapMom]

Have you ever heard of two words? Executive Orders which is how Clinton governed and they are almost impossible to overturn after they posted in the archives.

That is why even John McCain is much better than Hillary.

[PhiKapMom]

Senator Allen was the conservative governor of Virginia before going to the Senate. Having heard him speak, he will appeal to middle America. He has been my #1 choice for months.

[oceanview]

Reagan was divorced. Bush had a drinking problem.