Patrick Ruffini rebuts Christy Whitman's claim that moderate Republicans are more electable than conservative Republicans, comparing her dubious electoral achievements with those of GWB: [NOTE: Ruffini's analysis also serves to underscore the magnitude of the President's re-election victory in November!]
Christie Whitman wants to be the Republicans’ Zell Miller – or so says the dustjacket of her forthcoming It’s My Party Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America. At the heart of this book is a bitter attack on the strategy that re-elected President Bush with over 62 million votes. In her book, she writes:
"The numbers show that while the president certainly did energize his political base, the red state/blue state map changed barely at all -- suggesting that he had missed an opportunity to significantly broaden his support in the most populous areas of the country," Whitman writes. "The Karl Rove strategy to focus so rigorously on the narrow conservative base won the day, but we must ask at what price to governing and at what risk to the future of the party."
There’s some basis for comparison here. George W. Bush was elected and re-elected President of the United States. Christie Whitman was elected and re-elected Governor of New Jersey. How does Whitman’s re-election in 1997 stack up with Bush’s?
Growth of Support
Bush was the first Presidential candidate since 1988 to win more than 50% of the vote, smashing Ronald Reagan’s popular vote record by nearly 8 million votes, and increasing his total vote by 20% from 2000. In winning re-election, the President’s support surged among the most Democratic-leaning groups: women, Hispanics, African Americans, Jewish voters, citizens of the Northeast.
Whitman faced an unexpectedly close re-election race, receiving fewer votes than when she was first elected. She is the only Governor in modern New Jersey history never to have won more than 50% of the vote.
Beating Expectations
For most of Bush’s re-election year, the majority of the press corps expected him to lose. – especially if turnout exceeded 120 million. On Election Day, 122 million Americans voted, and Bush beat expectations with a solid 3 million popular vote majority.
For most of Whitman’s re-election year, she was considered the prohibitive favorite, leading by up to 30 points. But by Election Day, she was in a dead-heat with a little known, tax-hiking mayor named Jim McGreevey, and won by less than a point. No wonder PoliticsNJ.com rated both Whitman gubernatorial campaigns among the worst in New Jersey history.
A Party of Inclusion
When Bush was re-elected, his percentage of African American votes went up.
When Whitman was re-elected, her percentage of African American votes went down.
Values
Bush was forceful in advancing a values agenda, and effectively put John Kerry on the defensive on abortion and gay marriage. He won handily.
Whitman enraged the Republican base by vetoing a ban on partial birth abortion, spurring serious Libertarian and Conservative candidacies that took a combined 6 percent of the vote. She barely survived.
Campaign Finance
In 2004, Bush and Republicans were outspent by $113 million and won anyway.
In 1997, Whitman outspent McGreevey, with the DNC thinking it would be such a blowout that it stayed out of the state. Whitman barely scraped by.
Party Building
How does the Whitman approach to building the party stack up with the President’s? Well, let’s see…
Under Bush, Republicans regained control of the Senate, unheard of for an incumbent party in a midterm election. In 2004, Republicans gained four seats in the Senate and three seats in the House. Today, there are more Republicans on Capitol Hill than at any time since the 1920s.
During the Whitman era, Republicans blew a once insurmountable lead in the New Jersey legislature – making no headway in her re-election year, losing three seats in her final midterm, and finally losing control in 2001.
To top it all off, on the day Whitman begins her book tour, a poll comes out showing that she’s the most disliked governor in recent New Jersey history, tied with McGreevey. Ouch.
You’ve seen the record. Now, who do you trust when it comes to growing the GOP?
I HIGHLY recommend that you visit Ruffini's excellent website: http://www.patrickruffini.com/
Everything you posted about Bush and Whitman's campaigns is true.
But, he ran mostly on the war on terror and finishing Iraq with honor.
Whitman couldn't run on a war platform, so it is apples and oranges for her or us to compare her gubernatorial reelection campaign and his presidential reelection campaign.
There is one big thing that Republicans and conservatives seem to be missing, or are just not talking about.
It is 9/11 that has put us over the top and it is George W. Bush himself (whom many Americans like personally) that has put us over the top. We have so far failed to penetrate the MSM enough to convince many average Americans and young people with their heads full of liberal think that conservative ideals and values and policies are better for many more people in the long haul than the feel good supposed quick fix policies of the liberals.
We have a very hard road ahead convincing a lot of young people and broadcast TV watchers that everyone in the world as well as Americans are better off if we keep our system of regulated capitalism and our JudeoChristian values.