Posted on 01/26/2005 8:30:39 PM PST by BATNF
In the run up to this morning’s unveiling of the latest Quinnipiac University poll, the talk in Democratic circles was what effect the numbers might have on Acting Governor Richard J. Codey’s psyche as he ponders a primary campaign against Senator Jon S. Corzine.
For Republicans, many of whom have expressed uneasiness with their party’s two front-runners, the question was whether any of the other contenders, all largely unknown, might be showing signs of catching on.
The numbers are now out and the fresh independent data doesn’t seem likely to change the dynamic on either side, at least not immediately.
As expected, the survey showed Codey erasing much of the 40-point advantage Corzine enjoyed in the last Quinnipiac poll, which was released two days after Codey took office. The acting governor now trails Corzine by a 43-33 percent margin among Democrats. Both men are viewed favorably by nearly 60 percent of all voters.
The best news for Codey may be that head-to-head general election match-ups showed him faring slightly better against the two most likely Republican nominees than Corzine. The finding may simply have been a result of the more well-known Corzine’s higher disapproval rating -- 26 percent to Codey’s nine percent.
A poll commissioned by Codey found similar results.
“I think it verifies the thought that Codey has really tapped into a populist sentiment in New Jersey and would be a very strong candidate in November,” said Assemblyman John R. McKeon (D-West Orange), a close ally of Codey’s.
But Corzine, who has locked up significant support from key Democratic leaders in the last two weeks, can also claim vindication: he runs more than 20 points ahead of both likely GOP candidates.
“I don’t think [the poll] is going to cause the Hudson County Democrats to hold another meeting,” remarked Thomas O’Neil, a Democratic lobbyist. Hudson ’s Democratic mayors voted at a lunch meeting Tuesday to back Corzine, who also won endorsements from party leaders in Bergen , Mercer and Monmouth and Passaic counties this week.
Even many of his would-be backers privately say Codey has dawdled too long in deciding whether to run.
If he were to jump in now, he would face a hard geopolitical reality: with the exception of his home county of Essex , every Democratic county organization in the state is poised to line up with Corzine. Then there’s the money: Codey doesn’t have a single cent in financial commitments; Corzine has a bottomless supply of cash.
In a primary that could cost him all of the political power he’s spent 30 years accruing, Codey would have to bet that his popularity with average voters would be enough to overcome his handicaps.
Skeptics -- and Corzine backers -- say the new poll figures to represent Codey’s high water mark. In a few weeks he’ll tackle a politically treacherous state budget that figures to make him more enemies than friends.
But Ingrid Reed of Rutgers University ’s Eagleton Institute, said that Corzine would not be able to duck the budget issue in a primary campaign. She suggested Codey’s style as governor -- generally portrayed by the media as being more authentic than his predecessor, James E. McGreevey— might benefit him in a race against the senior senator.
“I actually think Codey has done a very good job of portraying himself as a wise politician who has made the transition to governor in a responsible way,” Reed said. “I think that candor would work very well for him as a candidate.”
On the Republican side, the results reinforced the notion that the race is divided into two tiers.
Former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler and former West Windsor Mayor Doug Forrester, the two candidates who have waged statewide campaigns before, are tied with 32 percent each. The five other candidates, with much narrower bases, are clustered between zero and two percent.
“Post-Chris Christie, I thought that this came down to a two man race and this poll confirms that,” said Michael P. Torpey, who served as Chief of Staff to Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. “Had I seen one of the other candidates registering in the high teens or at 20 percent I would have been surprised and revised my thinking. But actually, I’m a little surprised how low these numbers are.”
Since Codey assumed the governorship in mid-November the state’s press corps has been fixated on the possibility that he might butt heads with Corzine in a Democratic primary for the ages. That may have frozen the five lesser known GOP contenders -- Morris County Freeholder John J. Murphy, Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano (R-Nutley), Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan, Washington Township Committeeman Robert G. Schroeder, and former Bergen County Freeholder Todd Caliguire -- in place.
“We all know that there’s a certain amount of news space in all forms of media dedicated to politics and it’s a finite amount of space,” Torpey noted. “So when something is taking up that space, something isn’t getting reported. So there’s a very strong argument to be made that the media’s fascination with the Codey-Corzine situation has closed down some of that space for some of these candidates.”
It’s not that the five asterisk-saddled candidates haven’t been trying to break through: Schroeder, who registered zero percent support in the poll, has dumped $800,000 into his effort so far; Murphy has been positively McGreevery-esque in his eagerness to hit the county committee circuit; Lonegan has won free national media attention by staking out contrarian positions on water cooler topics; and DiGaetano has worked the grass-roots faithful effectively enough to win two non-binding straw polls. Only Caliguire has been invisible.
Torpey said the second-tier candidates need to show movement within the next month or so or they’ll risk being written off completely. That’s something that Forrester’s campaign in particular is hoping for, since the value of Schundler’s conservative base is directly related to the size of the field.
“The train’s leaving the station,” commented a Forrester adviser. “This is a Bret and Doug race. Either back Bret or back Doug, it doesn’t matter which one to us. I get so frustrated when I hear anybody say they’re going with one of these other guys.”
The second-tier campaigns seems divided over how and when to make a push to gain traction.
For instance, Murphy is trying to make his move now. He’s received a matching funds check from the state -- he’s the first candidate to qualify -- and has already invested much of it in a television advertising campaign set to debut next Tuesday on the conservative Fox News Channel, a forum that Murphy’s consultant called “better than the Rush Limbaugh show” for reaching GOP primary voters. Murphy is also beginning an aggressive direct mail effort.
David Murray, Murphy’s consultant, said the campaign is betting that the offensive will improve Murphy’s name recognition, which is currently at about 10 percent, along with most of the other cellar-dwelling candidates.
“I suggest you don’t become a real candidate until you get to 50 percent name ID,” said Murray, adding that if improved name recognition translates into support for Murphy in the next round of polling, GOP voters looking for an alternative to Schundler and Forrester will be more likely to give him serious consideration.
Schroeder, DiGaetano, Lonegan and Caliguire are also banking on there being Forrester/Schundler fatigue among GOP voters, but they’re not all going to be as proactive as Murphy in spending money.
For instance, Lonegan’s consultant, Rick Shaftan, has said he plans to preserve most of his campaign’s resources for an all-out over-the-air assault over the last six weeks of the campaign, believing that is the only time that most voters pay any attention to politics.
The lesser-known Republicans need to realize they’re all in the same boat when it comes to struggling to break out of the pack, said Reed. She suggested they band together to create media attention through debates and other joint appearances.
“It’s not likely to happen in the next month unless there’s a concerted effort to organize events that will give them visibility, because the media is not likely to cover these candidates individually,” she said.
Steve Kornacki can be reached at kornackinj@aol.com
Looks like New Jersey is about to make the next Stalin its Governor.
Oh how I loathe this state.
I'm impressed with Codey so far. His policies are as bad as a typical Democrat's, but he seems to be honest, no-nonsense, and a stand-up guy (first occasion I've ever used that term, but it is the best fit here -- he's not cowed by the media or afraid to say or do anything because it might be criticized, and he thinks for himself).
Here in Oklahoma Humphreys received almost all the endorsements in the Senate primary, but Dr. Tom Coburn now Senator won the primary in a three-way race with over 50% of the vote because the grassroots got out the vote and endorsements meant zero, zip, nada.
New Jersey needs to get the grassroots out working and get out the vote to stop Corzine!
unfortunately in NJ, the RATS are so entrenched if
either torecelli or mcgreevy ran again on the RAT ticket they'd win in a landslide even if abe lincoln was the GOP nominee
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