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China Has Lost Faith in Stability of U.S. Dollar
Associated Press | 01/26/05 | Edith M. Lederer

Posted on 01/26/2005 12:59:33 PM PST by dilbert80

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To: AdamSelene235
Remind me what happened in 1987 again...It looks rather similar to our current situation.

It does if you're a contrarian.

You've predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions.

41 posted on 01/26/2005 1:51:24 PM PST by Petronski (I'm not always cranky.)
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To: CasearianDaoist
Agree with much of your comments.

It seems to me if the world wants access to our markets, we pay in dollars. Where else do they expect to sell all this inexpensive stuff they make, Europe? What are the real options they have? Increasing domestic consumption is the key for them but that has political and economic ramifications they do not want such as higher wages and a politically restless population.

The dollar will go lower before is goes higher IMHO, at least for the next few years. When China lets the Yuan float, they better be very careful. Now is not the time for anyone to lend to the Chinese.
42 posted on 01/26/2005 1:52:53 PM PST by schu
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To: pfony1
Well, then... We're DOOMED!!! Oh! Wait a minute! The GSE's lend DOLLARS, not yuan!

WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Republicans in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday introduced legislation to create a new federal regulator with the authority to close mortgage funders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.....

43 posted on 01/26/2005 1:53:21 PM PST by AdamSelene235 (Truth has become so rare and precious she is always attended to by a bodyguard of lies.)
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To: AdamSelene235
Well you beginning point was actually the top of a peak that was created during the 70's. Regan fixed it, The dip is the 40+% dip against the DM and other currencies (oh, and we heard all about twin deficits then too.) THat was just my point. Regan cleared up Carter's (and others') mess and now Bush is doing the same for the mess left by Clinton.
Everything will be fine. The Euros are really PO'd because the ride is over.
44 posted on 01/26/2005 1:56:11 PM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: dilbert80
I'm patting myself on the back right now for predicting this a couple of months ago.

This is not bad news for the U.S. at all. What the Chinese government is saying is that their policy of linking the yuan to the dollar is having some serious consequences. First and foremost, their currency has declined against other currencies for no reason whatsoever in economic terms -- except that the U.S. dollar has been falling.

45 posted on 01/26/2005 2:02:37 PM PST by Alberta's Child ("Nobody takes a bus to Wal-Mart.")
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To: Pearls Before Swine

Yes, and the only thing worse than a fiat currency is one that is linked to a fiat currency like the Chinese yuan is.


46 posted on 01/26/2005 2:03:27 PM PST by Alberta's Child ("Nobody takes a bus to Wal-Mart.")
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To: CasearianDaoist
Everything will be fine.

I'm not so sure.


47 posted on 01/26/2005 2:03:51 PM PST by AdamSelene235 (Truth has become so rare and precious she is always attended to by a bodyguard of lies.)
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To: AdamSelene235

A useless parition of data.


48 posted on 01/26/2005 2:13:25 PM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: dilbert80
China blinked.

Bush plays damned good poker.

49 posted on 01/26/2005 2:18:49 PM PST by processing please hold (Islam and Christianity do not mix ----9-11 taught us that)
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To: traumer
Time to Roll over Europe now.... Destroy their currency too !

We're working on it.....be patient.

50 posted on 01/26/2005 2:23:21 PM PST by processing please hold (Islam and Christianity do not mix ----9-11 taught us that)
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To: usa1776
Nonsense, they just buy government securities, they do not finance government debt. If they are going to peg to dollars they have to keep dollars, and to keep them they have to do something with them.

It is all just nonsense. If they move to a basket there will be pressure taken off os the dollar anyway. Ig the Euros and the Japanese are whining now just wait until the Chenese peg to the Euros and the Yen. Too funny. As ussual, the rest of the world want us to do all the work. GWB is not playing along.

If he could actually fix this "monetary mercantilist" game that has been played on us in this term, he should get a Nobel for economics. Not that he will fix it, but he will make a return to the older status quo quite politically painful for whoever follows him.

China is still only a one or two trillion dollar economy. How can an economy that size finance the debts of an eleven trillion dollar economy?

In the past (as in Clinton or carter) when ever this sort of thing happened we propped the dollar up whenever our "partners" starting whinging. We had less import so nobody cared and our "trading partners" (great euphemism, that one) coughed a bit and then got back on the gravy train as the markets returned to a "strong dollar."

CHina and the EU want to be global economic powers. Well, welcome to the club.

The Euros were not bitching about theireconomies when the EUro was at .75 to the dollar, now where they?

It is just that dang GWB going around and upsetting apple carts.

51 posted on 01/26/2005 2:28:27 PM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: CasearianDaoist

they do not finance government debt = they do not finance private debt


52 posted on 01/26/2005 2:30:24 PM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: CasearianDaoist
purchasing power cartoon version

purchasing power grown-up version

Note in top graph gold-$ link cut, that was international.
it was cut for us in 33 and silver-$ cut in '64

what it does to your prices here. would you like to save a $ in 1970 and spend it today? vs. a krugerrand in 1970 and convert to $ for spending today? Krug=$35 in '70, $426 today. In '70 that that $35 was equal to $200 in today's inflation adjusted dollars. What a mess. The founders did not give us this.

53 posted on 01/26/2005 2:44:37 PM PST by Jason_b
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To: Petronski
I love this part of the article:

Since China's economic modernization began over a decade ago, 120 million rural laborers have moved into cities, but another 200 or 300 million people need to move into the cities from the countryside to spur development, he said.

Now are we bot missing something like a billion people here? BTW, this guy is a big time consultant for the Europeans.

China may move to a basket but not soon, and it will not help them. The rest of the world will call in their chips. Everyone else looked the other way when they were just sapping us. Now that they are hurting it is a different story.

People forget that much of the boom in China is driven by investment in anticipation of moreexport and that huge internal market that we have been hearing about for the last 150 years or so.

Well the USA is growing tired of the game and it will take decades for the market to appear, if it ever does.

54 posted on 01/26/2005 2:45:32 PM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: Jason_b

You are graphing inflation here, not FX prices.


55 posted on 01/26/2005 2:47:29 PM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: All

I wonder if this is tied to China withdrawing their bid to have two of their banks on the on wall street? They could not reach the standards that were required of them to have them posted there....something like that. I just skimmed the story yesterday.


56 posted on 01/26/2005 2:48:52 PM PST by processing please hold (Islam and Christianity do not mix ----9-11 taught us that)
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To: dilbert80

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. That will teach them that it isn't a good idea to peg your currency to the big dog's.


57 posted on 01/26/2005 2:55:20 PM PST by ichabod1 (The Spirit of the Lord Hath Left This Place)
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To: usa1776

Right ON!!


58 posted on 01/26/2005 2:59:20 PM PST by normagene
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To: traumer

Don't know how you figure. The Chinese are huge holders of our debt. If they no longer want our currency, and the Japanese have already decided not to buy more of our debt, where do you think the money is going to come from?

The World Bank is now warning that unless we reduce our debt, they may no longer be able to consider our currency stable.

How about getting rid of social security and medicaid all together. For that matter, how about scrapping the education system. How about those troops, they're just whiners, they don't need armour, they don't need tanks.

Gee, how about more tax cuts. How about more spending. Why not fiddle while Rome burns!!!


59 posted on 01/26/2005 3:04:00 PM PST by normagene
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To: normagene
WOW

Welcome to FR newbie.

60 posted on 01/26/2005 3:06:05 PM PST by processing please hold (Islam and Christianity do not mix ----9-11 taught us that)
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