Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Back for four years, more powerful than ever. Who's calling Bush an idiot now?
The Times (U.K.) ^ | 01/17/05 | Tim Hames

Posted on 01/16/2005 3:30:28 PM PST by Pokey78

THE LAVISH American presidential inaugural celebrations that will be witnessed this week were championed by Warren Harding. In 1921, when Congress refused to finance his plans for a grand parade, he ignored it and went to the private sector to raise funds for an extravaganza. He was not, alas, much of an orator or a president. A contemporary politician remarked: “His speeches left the impression of an army of pompous phrases moving over the landscape in search of an idea; sometimes these meandering words would actually capture a straggling thought and bear it triumphantly a prisoner in their midst, until it died of servitude and overwork.” Ouch.

By contrast, George Washington offered the shortest inaugural address to his fellow countrymen. In his first, he had stunned them by announcing that he would not accept a salary (only John F. Kennedy in recent decades has been similarly inexpensive). In his second, however, with a similar spirit of economy, he produced a mere 135 words. Yet, if inclined, George W. Bush could comfortably beat that record in Washington on Thursday. He might legitimately stand up and state in five blunt words: “I own this town now” and then sit down again.

And for the next 18 months or so he indeed will. After that, the collective attention of American politics will turn to the mid-term elections of 2006 and from there to the identity of Mr Bush’s successor. That obsession will be intense because for the first time since 1952 neither the sitting President nor his Vice-President will be nominated for the Oval Office. Dick Cheney will be the first Vice-President to a two-term president to disavow completely a bid for the top slot since Thomas R. Marshall, who served under Woodrow Wilson, Harding’s predecessor.

Yet for Mr Bush to dominate the American (and hence, global) scene for almost two years more is an extraordinary achievement. Most second-term presidencies are pale imitations of the first four years in power. They have, historically, been undercut by three factors: agenda exhaustion, personnel depletion and congressional erosion.

The agenda exhaustion comes because by the fifth year of his tenure, either the principal parts of a presidential programme have been enacted (for example, Ronald Reagan’s economic package of 1981), or it is obvious that they will never make it into legislation (Bill Clinton and healthcare by 1994). The personnel depletion follows from the trend that while incoming presidents can regularly persuade men and women of high standing to work for them, by the second term most of these characters have departed and their replacements are not as impressive.

The most important element, though, is congressional erosion. When Dwight Eisenhower was re-elected in 1956 the opposition Democrats were also re-elected to control Congress. The same pattern occurred for Richard Nixon 16 years later. In 1984 Ronald Reagan stormed to a massive victory but his Democratic foes maintained command of the House of Representatives and cut the Republican advantage in the Senate. In 1996 Mr Clinton obtained a further term, but so did the Republicans who held court over both chambers on Capitol Hill. Second terms usually means stalemate.

It is this combination of factors that has compelled so many second-term presidents to retreat into the role of constitutional monarch at home, throw themselves into international relations to compensate and embark on the (usually fruitless) attempt to shape their own legacy. They become progressively less consequential figures as every second ticks away towards their mandatory retirement. Congress marginalises the normal second-term president on the home front. The intransigence of other presidents and prime ministers frequently frustrates his efforts to cast himself as a “peacemaker” overseas.

None of these constraints applies to this President. He still has plenty of proposals for domestic policy left in him. These range from making permanent tax cuts that were passed in his opening term and the partial privatisation of American pensions to his ambition to curtail the outrageous costs of the US legal system. His new Cabinet members are not noticeably weaker than his previous colleagues. His party runs each branch of Congress and, thanks to the November election results, with greater majorities. For the first time since 1937 a re-elected president who has been in Washington for four years starts again with congressional enhancement, not erosion.

This presidency will thus be different. Mr Bush will be more active at home than is typical of second-term chief executives. He will not be forced to immerse himself in foreign affairs and, when he does, the limitations on him will largely be practical (particularly the course of events in Iraq) and not political. He may also have a very distinct notion of what he wants his legacy to be than other presidents. Rather than engage in the implausible pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize, he might aspire to be remembered as the man who won the War on Terror. It is unlikely that he will invade any more rogue states, but that is mostly because such ventures will either be deemed unnecessary or unfeasible.

How much Mr Bush will do in his remaining time is, therefore, unpredictable. He may, once again, break the rules of American politics and prove that it is possible to maintain momentum. The wild card here is scandal. It has been the curse of second-term Administrations. It embarrassed Eisenhower, triggered the resignation of Nixon, shook the Reagan White House to its foundations and led Mr Clinton to be impeached by the House of Representatives before being acquitted in the Senate. If he can avoid such ethical quicksand, this President’s final few years in office could be surprisingly successful.

Mr Bush’s personal authority, at least until 2007, may be really exceptional. Only Franklin D. Roosevelt has been equivalently placed in the past 100 years. This might oblige his many vocal critics, who have habitually mocked him, to deliver their own five-word speech this Thursday. It should read: “He is not an idiot.”


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; Politics/Elections; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 2ndterm; bush43; term2
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-42 next last
To: Southack

there is always an electoral trend that moves back and forth, the only question is, how far will it move? I'd rather have (semi-)conservatives and RINO's alternating in the White House than to have socialists like Kerry or Hitlery Clinton in there. I always say, for presidential candidates, conservatives if you can, RINO's if you must. As long as you get conservatives up in the senate, the RINO president wouldn't get any RINO stuff done anyway.


21 posted on 01/16/2005 5:14:48 PM PST by William of Orange (This tagline brought to you by John Kerry and the Kool-Aid Kollective...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Dane
George Allen taught his players to play as a team, which lead them to a Super Bowl.  
George Allen taught his players to play as a team, which lead them to a Super Bowl.

He'd never carry Texas.

22 posted on 01/16/2005 5:18:36 PM PST by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Cicero

I worry that McStain will put himself forward again. He's definitely been jockying for better position. Mostly on the Democrat side, true, but jockying just the same.


23 posted on 01/16/2005 5:33:12 PM PST by cake_crumb (Leftist Credo: "One Wing to Rule Them all and to the Dark Side Bind Them")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Pokey78
The quote making fun of Harding was from William McAdoo, Secretary of the Treasury 1913-1918 under Woodrow Wilson, who married one of Wilson's daughters in 1914; he was a contender for the Democratic nomination in 1920 and 1924 but never succeeded in getting the nomination. I think the speech he was ridiculing was the one in which Harding accidentally invented the word "normalcy" (misreading the word "normality" in the text).

When Truman was re-elected in 1948, the Democrats recaptured both houses of Congress, making much larger gains than the Republicans did in 2004...they are ignoring 1948 since Truman had not been in office for the full term (since FDR was re-elected in 1944 and then died less than 3 months into the term).

24 posted on 01/16/2005 5:44:24 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dane
..I think that George Allen would be a great candidate for President in 2008...

Ahh..is that who the White House favors?

25 posted on 01/16/2005 5:45:35 PM PST by MrNatural (..".You want the truth?!"...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Pokey78

Interesting. Thank you.

Now a reminder for those who wanted to watch Brit Hume's interviews on Fox News with President Bush and his staff that that is coming up now -- 9 pm Eastern, 6 pm Pacific.


26 posted on 01/16/2005 5:48:54 PM PST by patriciaruth (They are all Mike Spanns)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Dog Gone

George Allen is a great senator from Virginia. Previous to that position, he was governor. He beat the incumbent charles robb. Keep an eye on him. My state has no real senator just schumer and clinton.


27 posted on 01/16/2005 5:50:51 PM PST by DWC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: cake_crumb
And having a hard time coming up with a viable candidate.

My list for who I WILL NOT vote for is long and getting longer.

28 posted on 01/16/2005 5:52:04 PM PST by Howlin (I need my Denny Crane!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: DWC

I knew that, but every time I hear his name, I think of the deceased Redskin coach.


29 posted on 01/16/2005 5:58:16 PM PST by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: vpintheak

They just keep doing what Kerry did -- look at the headlines of the day and find some angle to attack him from. They still don't get it. The swimmer doesn't get it. The further he goes the more popular George Walker Bush and the Revolution (or Counter-Revolution) he is leading gains momentum. It's not the number of votes he won by. It's that he won by more than the first time and gained seats in Congress both in 2002 and 2004. Unheard of!


30 posted on 01/16/2005 5:58:42 PM PST by johnb838 (Death to socializm. Welcome to your nightmare.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Pokey78

This article ranks about an 8 on the Gloat Scale.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Get over it, DUmmies! Bush OWNS you!


31 posted on 01/16/2005 6:00:34 PM PST by Choose Ye This Day (Socialism failed. Bush won. Wellstone is dead. Get over it, DUmmies!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Carolinamom
The author mistakenly refers to "two years more" of Bush's term in office.

Ummm...No, not quite. Go back and re-read the article. The author is saying that most second-term U.S. presidents are only relevant for the first half of their second term. Then mid-terms and the race for a successor takes hold of the public attention, and the lame duck finds it difficult to accomplish much. The author then says that's not likely to be the case with President Bush, who now has MORE power than when he first took office in 2001.

32 posted on 01/16/2005 6:05:30 PM PST by Choose Ye This Day (Socialism failed. Bush won. Wellstone is dead. Get over it, DUmmies!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

To: DWC

llen sounds good. We must have someone with executive experience. To have the senate as well is icing on the cake. Still, he runs the risk of being painted as an insider by some populist dark horse.


34 posted on 01/16/2005 6:25:02 PM PST by johnb838 (Death to socializm. Welcome to your nightmare.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

some republicans and media types think GWB is a lame duck and only has 2 years but- they forget that he is YOUNG and a great campaigner. If he is crossed by republicans he will use his good will and his long memory to get back at those who are disloyal. I would not cross GWB. He is going to pass some heavy legislation.


35 posted on 01/16/2005 6:34:39 PM PST by q_an_a
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Southack
Houston, we have a problem.

I'm not so sure,08 is a long ways away.I don't completely count out Dick Cheney, I know he has repeated said he has no plans on running but that doesn't mean in the face of a weak field he couldn't change his mind.As far as I know his health has been almost non issue over the last 4 years.I would also keep an eye on Condi Rice, if there is a major break through in foriegn policy which is entirely possible over the next 4 years it puts her in a better position for a run in 08.I hear rumors that Frist is favored by Rove if he can somehow grow a pair or Rove manufactures one for him he will be a formidable candidate.

36 posted on 01/16/2005 6:35:52 PM PST by edchambers (Neocon foot-soldier of the Haliburton death squad)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Southack
The problem, of course, is that we don't have a top-tier Conservative in position to run in 2008.

Don't overlook George Allen. It wasn't coincidence that he got the NRSC post so early in his Senate career. And he has gubernatorial experience to hopefully offset the senatorial curse.

37 posted on 01/17/2005 4:42:33 AM PST by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Theresawithanh

"A contemporary politician remarked: “His speeches left the impression of an army of pompous phrases moving over the landscape in search of an idea; sometimes these meandering words would actually capture a straggling thought and bear it triumphantly a prisoner in their midst, until it died of servitude and overwork.” Hmm, sounds a lot like JK, doesn't it?"

A sure thought this sounded like John Kerry as well. I remember several time during the debates looking at my wife and saying: "Was there a point in there soemwhere?"


38 posted on 01/17/2005 5:00:17 AM PST by IamConservative (To worry is to misuse your imagination.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: johnb838

Yep just a bunch of losers.


39 posted on 01/17/2005 8:58:33 AM PST by vpintheak (Liberal = The antithesis of Freedom and Patriotism)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: johnb838

It appears that at least Virginia does not believe that he is an insider. He's just another idea for who to run in 2008.


40 posted on 01/17/2005 4:46:43 PM PST by DWC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-42 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson