Donniebrooks (The fights for DNC chairman. Plus: The Casey against Santorum.)

The American Prowler ^ | 1/14/2005 | The Prowler

[peyton randolph]

Casey will crush Santorum - taking both cities and central Pa. The Caseys are local Kennedys to the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area. Santorum didn't help himself by knifing Toomey in the back during last year's GOP primaries in order to kiss up to the Spectre (int. misspelled) RINO block.

[watsonfellow]

Um hardly. Casey will not survive a Democrat primary. See what happened to him in 2002 when he ran in the Dem primary for Governor...he was crushed....and that was just when he ran for governor. NARAL et al pulled out all the stops. Imagine what will happen when he tries to run for Senator (A Senator Casey would clearly vote to confirm all of President Bush's judicial nominees and would be a huge spokesman for the pro life cause, something the Democrats don't want...it's ok if you are pro life but you can't be adamant about it).........Casey will be defeated in the Dem primary, mark my words. You will see Casey touted in the conservative press because they loved his father and love, love, love strongly prolife dems, but don't expect much to come from it.

Someone on kos linked to this blog that's already started up.

www.stopcasey.blogspot.com

[watsonfellow]

Furthermore, Pat Casey ran for Congress in 2000 and lost in a very good year for the dems in PA........I believe he ran in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, so not quite the stuff of getting elected...eh? I realize that you want in some weird way to see Santorum defeated (which is odd considering Bush gave Specter alot more help than Santorum did) but it aint gonna happen.

[peyton randolph]

That is why Casey is conditioning a run on the party making sure he is unopposed in the Dimwit primaries. He can win the general election if he gets past the primaries without pro-abort opposition. As much as the Dimwits hate pro-lifers, they'd love to pick up another Senate seat. There aren't any other viable candidates that can carry the Commonwealth for the Dimwits.

[watsonfellow]

Um that's just the problem......Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer can't "clear the field" this isn't England where the central party controls every constituency. The Democrat party in Penn is pretty pro abortion, especially the activists. Seriously, study what they did to Casey in 2002. NARAL got over twenty thousand Republican women to change their registration to vote against Casey. What with retirements on the supreme court, I doubt very much NARAL etc will roll over just so Chuck Schumer can get his man in. Casey will not survive a Dem primary because the abortion activisits in Penn, who control the party to a good degree, will not let him get it. Not because he is pro-life, but because the life issue is one of his top issues. They know that if he got elected, he would become the go to guy on all pro life legislation, he would give speeches, use the media etc and make the pro choice Dems look like extremists. Believe me, Casey won't win the primary.

And if he does, which he won't, I think you overestimate his support in the general. The key to winning as a Democrat in Penn (since the mid nineties) is to get the inner cities to vote heavily for you (which Casey won't be able to as he is not very well connected in that regard, see the primary in 2002) and to get moderate republican women in the suburbs to vote for you. Since, as odd as this is, Casey talks more about the life issue than Santorum, I doubt moderate republican women who only vote dem for the abortion issue would vote for Casey. Plus if Casey did get the nod, then Specter's machine would come out in full force for Santorum. Seriously, Casey is wildly overestimated! I like him too, but let's face facts.

[watsonfellow]

Also the idea that social conservatives and rural conservatives would come out and vote for Dems is also not accurate. Bob's brother Pat ran in 2000 in a very socially conservative/rural area, and despite being from this "golden" family, despite his strong pro life stance and a ton of money from the party, he lost to a rather lackluster underfunded Republican, meanwhile Gore carried the state!

[watsonfellow]

Moderate republican women in Penn... hate hate hate the Casey family.....The casey's are exact opposites to them...big spending, labour union loving, no exception pro lifers. I don't think the Democrat base would get very excited about his candidacy. Furthermore, abortion and the Supreme Court will be in the news alot these two years...the Dems will (contra their current discussion about it) revert to their "Save Roe at all costs" mantra...now how likely is it that they would nominate a man whose father tried to get Roe v Wade overturned. Remember it's not Roe v. Wade that's the law of the land, but something v. Casey!

Believe me, he won't get the dem nod.

[HAL9000]

Donnie Fowler's Blog - changetheparty.com

Hey Donnie - tell yr. ol' man h9k sez h3llO!

[Kuksool]

A possible Casey vs. Santorum is brewing.

[Kuksool]

[Dimwits hate pro-lifers, they'd love to pick up another Senate seat.]

The RATS would much rather lose elections than allow pro-lifers gain influence in the party. In 2000, the RATS had a chance to gain 2 more Senate seats by suppporting pro-life RATS. However they gave little support to the pro-life RATS challenging Lincoln Chafee and Rick Santorum.

[HateBill]

Pro-life Dems. cannot raise funds in a federal election. This was the problem Ron Klink ran into when he ran against Santorum the last time. He was pro-life, and not a gun control Nazi, and yet pro-union, and complained that he couldn't raise any money in a "winnable" race.

Groups like Emily's List and NARAL control the purse strings to a large extent.

Casey is no multi-millionaire (i.e., Dayton, Corzine, Cantwell the last time around, not now) who can self-fund and with many national races to fund, I doubt Schumer can afford to put the lion's share of DSSC money behind Casey.

And can you imagine what the "heart and soul" of the Democratic Party, i.e., Moveon, would say about a vehemently pro-life candidate? I doubt Casey could expect the "small checks" of the Moveon type Democrat either.

[peyton randolph]

I doubt Casey could expect the "small checks" of the Moveon type Democrat either.

The key is Fast Eddie Rendell (also a former DNC chair). He can deliver Philly for Casey if he wants to do so. I suspect that Schumer is tied into the same gambling interests as Gov. Rendell...they can be very persuasive, i.e. make Rendell an offer he can't refuse.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Casey will crush Santorum - taking both cities and central Pa."

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In 2000, the Democrats ran Congressman Ronald Klink, a pro-life, pro-gun, economically liberal Democrat from Western PA against Santorum. Santorum beat him handily in spite of Gore carrying the state. I don't think Bob Casey, Jr., a pro-life, pro-gun, economically liberal Democrat from Scranton, will be able to do much better in 2006. Even if Rendell's reelection run helps get out the vote in Philly and its suburbs, Rendellicans and other RINOs will vote for Santorum, since at least they agree with him on economic issues, while they do not agree with Casey on *any* issues.

I looked it up, and Casey's father never ran well in the Philly suburbs. In his first gubernatorial bid in 1986 (against William Scranton III), Casey, Sr. won statewide with 50.69% of the vote, but his percentages in the Philly suburbs were pitiful: 39.59% in Bucks County, 39.50% in Delaware County and 33.69% in Montgomery County (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/gov/PaGov1986.html ). And in his reelection bid in 1990, Casey, Sr. beat then-Republican Barbara Hafer with a whopping 67.65% of the vote, yet his percentages in the Philly suburbs were much lower: 58.58% in Bucks, 54.82% in Delco and 49.84% in Montco (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/gov/PaGov1990.html ).

[xcullen]

The Scranton/WB congressional district was held by a Repub for 26 years (Joe McDade) and had since spread to the more conservative rural counties. Even so Pat lost by under 500 votes (+/-). They have since switched districts to give the Dems a shot someday. (Not in 2006)

[JohnnyZ]

In 2000, the Democrats ran Congressman Ronald Klink, a pro-life, pro-gun, economically liberal Democrat from Western PA against Santorum. Santorum beat him handily in spite of Gore carrying the state. I don't think Bob Casey, Jr., a pro-life, pro-gun, economically liberal Democrat from Scranton, will be able to do much better in 2006.

Ron Klink's old man was not governor of the state. Ain't quite the same.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Two words, folks, "Barbara Hafer." Hafer has been focused like a laser beam on challenging Santorum ever since she switched effortlessly from sore-loser RINO to 'Rat. No way in hell is this pro-aborter going to get out of the way for the son of the man who thumped her in the 1990 Governor's race. Not to say Casey has no chance of winning the primary, but Hafer being the sore loser that she always is, if Casey prevailed, he'd be so badly bloodied, it would be tough for him to recover for the general. Of course, a big problem for Santorum, as pointed out, was a lot of residual anger for supporting the soon-to-be-late Sen. Specter, and he might have many sitting out the election as a result (enough to tip the balance in a close race). In any event, it's better for us for the Casey-Hafer primary showdown to occur. Let's not forget, too, about the potential marquee PA Gubernatorial election next year (another big question, which race will suck the air out of the other one ?).

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Let's not forget, too, about the potential marquee PA Gubernatorial election next year (another big question, which race will suck the air out of the other one ?)."

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If Pat Toomey runs for Governor, I don't think very many conservatives will be staying home even if they are upset at Santorum. And once they're at the ballot box, they will vote for Santorum over either the union lackey Casey or the abortion-loving Hafer.

But if Toomey doesn't run, Santorum will have to make sure that he motivates conservatives to turn out for him like he did in 1994 and 2000. Maybe if Lynn Swann runs for the GOP it might help Santorum a bit, but other than Toomey no other GOP candidate can make conservatives walk barefoot on broken glass to go and vote.

[The Old Hoosier]

Believe me, he won't get the dem nod.

He might, if Schumer clears the field for him...

[fieldmarshaldj]

Has Toomey even voiced any interest in running for Governor ? I know my jaw dropped when I saw Bill Scranton, III, voiced an interest. He served as Dick Thornburgh's Lieutenant Governor and ran a disastrous campaign that was his to lose way back in '86 (of course, having Carville as Bob Casey, Sr's campaign manager helped sack Scranton). After 20 years out of the public eye, I would think he'd be a dreadful candidate. I know little about State Sen. Jeff Piccola or the two other lesser-known candidates, all of whom I'd presume would be at a disadvantage against Fast Eddie. How Conservative is Lynn Swann ? I think he'd be a very intriguing candidate. Imagine come January 2007 that both Ohio and Pennsylvania have 2 African-American Republican Governors ! :-)