Posted on 01/13/2005 4:20:13 PM PST by neverdem
Yes, it was sad to lose a man who did more to combat the propaganda of global warming than anyone. John was a mathematical genius who could cut through the global warming crap as fast as they could put it out, which is saying something. His daughter and a friend were suppose to keep up his site in his honor, but it is just not the same. John Daly was quite the one man show.
I found this story at www.sepp.org today.
here is a 'tell' - Mann now says it's a 'myth' of the hockey stick that it implies temperatures are higher in 20th century than at any time in 1000 years. hmmm, check that with the popular descriptions and scaremongering on global warming.
So M+M tell us Mann is wrong, get rejected by the 'in-crowd' at Nature, and post it for others to see ... and Mann feels the need to post retorts on the web as a way to wage his own PR campaign. I smell defensiveness. As Gomer Pyle would say - "surprise surprise".
You didn't mention the cultivated fields in Greenland.
Having read some of the reactions to this work, I'm stuck on a simple point:
The statistics math can be argued to and fro, but ...
Why do they need such complex statistical jiggering to make the point about what the average temperature is?
That seems to be at least one hole in the hockey stick.
Then there is the difficulties of some of the proxy data ...
" Tree rings are created during the growing season, not over an entire year. They tell scientists little or nothing about annual climate. Think of it this way: This year (2000) there was a warm winter and early spring in the northeastern U.S., followed by an unusually cool summer and fall. These events largely are self-cancelling. As a consequence, 2000 will be fairly average. But the tree rings only will record the cool summer and thus give a completely false impression of the full years temperature.... To state the obvious, trees grow on land. Because oceans, seas, and lakes inundate 71 percent of the earth, tree rings tell us nothing about maritime climate. This is no small point. Oceans are the primary determinant of climate conditions throughout the world." - John Daly
Here is the best refutation of the 'hockey stick', going directly to the temperature and proxy data, a more fundamental problem than the statistical methods used:
http://www.greeningearthsociety.org/Articles/2000/hockey.htm
It is neccessary! How else to limit progress? How else to limit increasing wealth? How else to end the increase in life expectancy? How else to reduce the world's growing food supply etc etc etc?
Thanks for the link. It supports other articles I've read about sunspot activity and solar radiation. Bookmarked
I think the bigger question is, did Mann have any motivation for making the data trend one way versus another? Some bias perhaps?
Temps change always have, always will.
Ice Ages & Astronomical Causes Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle Figure 1-1 Global warming source NOAA
Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years, source "GISP2"
Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years, source "GISP2"
Figure 1-4 Climate of the last 100,000 years, source Greenland ice data
Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice data |
http://newton.ex.ac.uk/aip/physnews.252.html#1
INTERPLANETARY DUST PARTICLES (IDPs) are deposited on the Earth at the rate of about 10,000 tons per year. Does this have any effect on climate? Scientists at Caltech have found that ancient samples of helium-3 (coming mostly from IDPs) in oceanic sediments exhibit a 100,000-year periodicity. The researchers assert that their data, taken along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, support a recently enunciated idea that Earth's orbital inclination varies with a 100-kyr period; this notion in turn had been broached as an explanation for a similar periodicity in the succession of ice ages. (K.A. Farley and D.B. Patterson, Nature, 7 December 1995.)
Farley & Patterson 1998, http://www.elsevier.com/gej-ng/10/20/36/33/37/32/abstract.html
Farley http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~farley/
Farley http://www.elsevier.nl/gej-ng/10/18/23/54/21/49/abstract.html
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/pr96/dec96/noaa96-78.html
ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE DURING LAST GLACIAL PERIOD COULD BE TIED TO DUST-INDUCED REGIONAL WARMING
Preliminary new evidence suggests that periodic increases in atmospheric dust concentrations during the glacial periods of the last 100,000 years may have resulted in significant regional warming, and that this warming may have triggered the abrupt climatic changes observed in paleoclimate records, according to a scientist at the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Current scientific thinking is that the dust concentrations contributed to global cooling.
"Carbon dioxide, the main culprit in the alleged greenhouse-gas warming, is not a "driver" of climate change at all. Indeed, in earlier research Jan Veizer, of the University of Ottawa and one of the co-authors of the GSA Today article, established that rather than forcing climate change, CO2 levels actually lag behind climatic temperatures, suggesting that global warming may cause carbon dioxide rather than the other way around."
***
"Veizer and Shaviv's greatest contribution is their time scale. They have examined the relationship of cosmic rays, solar activity and CO2, and climate change going back through thousands of major and minor coolings and warmings. They found a strong -- very strong -- correlation between cosmic rays, solar activity and climate change, but almost none between carbon dioxide and global temperature increases."
Mann takes his science seriously and dreads the consequences of global warming. He's countering bad arguments in a way he feels the public can understand.
Specifically, he says MM's statistical analysis is flat out wrong. I can't follow the logic so I don't know whether he's right but it seems his peers support him on the merits.
You are a top notch FReeper Straight Vermonter. Thanks for the material.
I should have credited ancient_geezer who posted that material on an earlier thread.
But thanks all the same!
"I should have credited ancient_geezer"
You are both doing a service for humanity!!
Oh dear, I was a fan of his 'Still waiting for Greenhouse' site, but now I see that it is gone.
Site is still up an running, lil different URL is all. Daughter is keeps it updated, though nothing comparable to John's passion for the subject.
BTTT!!!!!!
BTTT!!!!!!
GREAT FReeper research/links bump!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.