Posted on 01/04/2005 8:56:14 PM PST by adaven
Trio of storm systems could have devastating impact on U.S.
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON - Moisture-laden storms from the north, west and south are likely to converge on much of America over the next several days in what could be a once-in-a-generation onslaught, meteorologists forecast Tuesday.
If the gloomy computer models at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center are right, we'll see this terrible trio:
All three are likely to meet somewhere in the nation's midsection and cause even more problems, sparing only areas east of the Appalachian Mountains.
"You're talking a two- or three-times-a-century type of thing," said prediction center senior meteorologist James Wagner, who's been forecasting storms since 1965. "It's a pattern that has a little bit of everything."
While the predicted onslaught is nothing compared with the tsunami that ravaged South Asia last week, the combo storms could damage property and cause a few deaths.
The exact time and place of the predicted one-two-three punch changes slightly with every new forecast. But in its weekly "hazards assessment," the National Weather Service alerted meteorologists and disaster specialists Tuesday that flooding and frigid weather could start as early as Friday and stretch into early next week, if not longer.
"It's a situation that looks pretty potent," Ed O'Lenic, the Climate Prediction Center's operations chief, told Knight Ridder. "A large part of North America looks like it's going to be affected."
Kelly Redmond, the deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev., where an unusual 18 inches of snow is on the ground already, said the expected heavy Western rains could cause avalanches. Since Oct. 1, Southern California and western Arizona have had three to four times the normal precipitation for the area.
"Somebody is in for something pretty darn interesting," Redmond said.
The last time a similar situation seemed to be brewing - especially in the West - was in January 1950, O'Lenic said. That month, 21 inches of snow hit Seattle, killing 13 people in an extended freeze, and Sunnyvale, Calif., got an unusual tornado.
The same scenario played out in 1937, when there was record flooding in the Ohio River Valley, said Wagner, of the prediction center.
Meteorologists caution that their predictions are only as good as their computer models. And forecasts get less accurate the farther into the future they attempt to predict.
"The models tend to overdo the formation of these really exciting weather formations for us," said Mike Wallace, a University of Washington atmospheric scientist.
Yet the more Wallace studied the models the more he became convinced that something wicked was coming this way.
"It all fits together nicely," Wallace said. "There's going to be weather in the headlines this weekend, that's for sure."
Wagner was worried about the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys as the places where the three nasty storm systems could meet, probably with snow, thunderstorms, severe ice storms and flooding. Some of those areas already are flooded.
The converging storms are being steered by high-pressure ridges off Alaska and Florida and are part of a temporary change in world climate conditions, O'Lenic said.
Over equatorial Indonesia, east of where the tsunami hit, meteorologists have identified a weather-making phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's producing extra-stormy weather to its east. Similar oscillations in the north Atlantic and north Pacific are changing global weather patterns. Add to the strange mix this year's mild El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific - which is unusually far west, Redmond said.
There's also another, more playful explanation: The nation's weathermen are about to converge on Southern California, and they bring bad weather with them.
The American Meteorological Society will meet next week in usually tranquil San Diego, which should be hit with the predicted storms and accompanying flooding in time for the group's gathering.
In 1987,when the meteorologists met in San Antonio for their convention, the city had ice storms. In 1993, when they gathered in Anaheim, Calif., it rained for 4.5 out of five days and triggered mudslides. Atlanta got rare snow during the meteorologists' 1996 convention. And in 2003 in Long Beach, Calif., heavy rain greeted them.
Ron McPherson, the group's recently retired executive director, said: "It always rains on the weatherman's parade."
An unnamed warm, moist storm system from the Gulf of Mexico
I think we should "name" this warm, moist storm system from the Gulf. C'mon FReepers, I'm sure we can come up with something!
Who has a Poor Richard's Almanac for 2005?
Boomtime for civil engineers
Time to test your Q's
Surfside Colony will be submerged
Pretty Scarry...
Los Angeles (read what Dallas Raines is reading right now)_
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS66 KLOX 050605 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 1000 PM PST TUE JAN 4 2005
.SHORT TERM...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL L.A. COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT HERE AND THERE... OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.
A BROAD W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DISTRICT WED THRU THU. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC STORM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST ON THU. WITH A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS LINGERING OVER THE DISTRICT...IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION THRU WED NITE. THE CHANCES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THU...ALTHO THE ETA IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE THERE UNTIL LATE WED OR WED EVENING. THE PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THU NITE AND PUSH THRU L.A./VTU COUNTIES FRI MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT....WITH WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT 850 MB. ETA CROSS SECTIONS ALONG THE COAST SHOW THE WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SE OR EVEN ESE OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WHICH REALLY IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL. THE GFS WIND FIELD IS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH. EVEN A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WILL PROVIDE FOR DECENT ENHANCED RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON THE SOUTH SLOPES. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE GFS SNOW LEVELS INCREASE TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET THU NITE...WHILE THE ETA IS COLDER...STILL AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO. IT LOOKS LIKE SW CA IS IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THU THRU FRI. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON FAVORED S FACING SLOPES. FOR THE MOUNTAINS 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT AND ABOVE RESORT LEVELS. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WIND FIELD WILL ALSO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS THU NITE INTO FRI. FLOODING ALONG WITH MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF RUNOFF. ALREADY ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THIS UPCOMING STORM. PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT LAXSPSLOX AND OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .LONG TERM...THE GFS FORECASTS A BROAD W TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA SAT AND SUN. SEVERAL TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE DISTRICT WITH THE CHANCES OF MORE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER SAT THEN COME DOWN SOME SUN AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES LOWER SOME. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
We had one of those about six years ago that left us without power for two weeks and stopped everything. The trees are just now recovering to 90% of what they were.
But it takes below freezing conditions about three days prior to chill the trees,power line and ground to enable the ice build up.
If that is the case where you are, then you may well have a doozy!
Just don't call it an Illegal
Hope you're feeling better. :O)
Wasn't this a scenario for a plot in a mini-series on NBC (or was it CBS) a few months ago?
Good Luck and God Bless
There is now 16 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada. That tears it. From now on, I spend my winters in Alaska.
=== I heard KC was getting a foot of ice....
Schools are closed tomorrow and my family have already prepped some food and purchased their Ice-Melt before hunkering down this evening. Doesn't look good. I trust they don't have the same sort of hellish experience the ice-storm of a few years ago wrought.
And also to you my friend...
The green, green grass of Nome?
A frozen tidal wave? That's imaginative. Was the city bombarded by huge blocks of ice from the coast?
Whew!! (from up here in MA)
I didn't see the movie, but the trailers shown on TV showed a tidal wave wiping out New York and then freezing
Meanwhile here in Minnesota we've had the least amount of snow ever recorded. So far only about two point something inches. The storms just keep a missin' us!
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