If the gloomy computer models at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center are right, we'll see this terrible trio:
- The "Pineapple Express," a series of warm wet storms heading east from Hawaii, drenching Southern California and the far Southwest, which already are beset with heavy rain and snow. It could cause flooding, avalanches and mudslides.
- An "Arctic Express," a mass of cold air chugging south from Alaska and Canada, bringing frigid air and potentially heavy snow and ice to the usually mild-wintered Pacific Northwest.
- An unnamed warm, moist storm system from the Gulf of Mexico drenching the already saturated Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi valleys. Expect heavy river flooding and springlike tornadoes.
All three are likely to meet somewhere in the nation's midsection and cause even more problems, sparing only areas east of the Appalachian Mountains.
"You're talking a two- or three-times-a-century type of thing," said prediction center senior meteorologist James Wagner, who's been forecasting storms since 1965. "It's a pattern that has a little bit of everything."
While the predicted onslaught is nothing compared with the tsunami that ravaged South Asia last week, the combo storms could damage property and cause a few deaths.
The exact time and place of the predicted one-two-three punch changes slightly with every new forecast. But in its weekly "hazards assessment," the National Weather Service alerted meteorologists and disaster specialists Tuesday that flooding and frigid weather could start as early as Friday and stretch into early next week, if not longer.
"It's a situation that looks pretty potent," Ed O'Lenic, the Climate Prediction Center's operations chief, told Knight Ridder. "A large part of North America looks like it's going to be affected."
Kelly Redmond, the deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev., where an unusual 18 inches of snow is on the ground already, said the expected heavy Western rains could cause avalanches. Since Oct. 1, Southern California and western Arizona have had three to four times the normal precipitation for the area.
"Somebody is in for something pretty darn interesting," Redmond said.
The last time a similar situation seemed to be brewing - especially in the West - was in January 1950, O'Lenic said. That month, 21 inches of snow hit Seattle, killing 13 people in an extended freeze, and Sunnyvale, Calif., got an unusual tornado.
The same scenario played out in 1937, when there was record flooding in the Ohio River Valley, said Wagner, of the prediction center.
Meteorologists caution that their predictions are only as good as their computer models. And forecasts get less accurate the farther into the future they attempt to predict.
"The models tend to overdo the formation of these really exciting weather formations for us," said Mike Wallace, a University of Washington atmospheric scientist.
Yet the more Wallace studied the models the more he became convinced that something wicked was coming this way.
"It all fits together nicely," Wallace said. "There's going to be weather in the headlines this weekend, that's for sure."
Wagner was worried about the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys as the places where the three nasty storm systems could meet, probably with snow, thunderstorms, severe ice storms and flooding. Some of those areas already are flooded.
The converging storms are being steered by high-pressure ridges off Alaska and Florida and are part of a temporary change in world climate conditions, O'Lenic said.
Over equatorial Indonesia, east of where the tsunami hit, meteorologists have identified a weather-making phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's producing extra-stormy weather to its east. Similar oscillations in the north Atlantic and north Pacific are changing global weather patterns. Add to the strange mix this year's mild El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific - which is unusually far west, Redmond said.
There's also another, more playful explanation: The nation's weathermen are about to converge on Southern California, and they bring bad weather with them.
The American Meteorological Society will meet next week in usually tranquil San Diego, which should be hit with the predicted storms and accompanying flooding in time for the group's gathering.
In 1987,when the meteorologists met in San Antonio for their convention, the city had ice storms. In 1993, when they gathered in Anaheim, Calif., it rained for 4.5 out of five days and triggered mudslides. Atlanta got rare snow during the meteorologists' 1996 convention. And in 2003 in Long Beach, Calif., heavy rain greeted them.
Ron McPherson, the group's recently retired executive director, said: "It always rains on the weatherman's parade."
Vegas news here:
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Today: January 04, 2005 at 11:16:14 PST
Rain expected to continue
Man dies after rescue from drainage canal
By Mary Manning
<manning@lasvegassun.com> and Eric Leake
<eric.leake@lasvegassun.com>
LAS VEGAS SUN
A man died after being pulled out of floodwater in a drainage canal Monday afternoon in North Las Vegas after the valley had been deluged by rain throughout the day.
A passer-by spotted the man in the rushing water of a flood channel along Lake Mead Boulevard west of Interstate 15 about 4:30 p.m. and flagged down a motorist to call 911, North Las Vegas Police spokesman Sean Walker said.
North Las Vegas firefighters pulled the man out of the the water soon after they arrived but he died later that night at University Medical Center, Walker said.
The person who tried to get help to the man had at least given him a fighting chance to survive, Walker said.
"He's fortunate that a good Samaritan saw him and cared enough," Walker said.
Plastic packaging from defibrillator electrodes was strewn on the ground where rescuers had worked to revive the man.
Walker did not know how the man had wound up in the water or how long he had been in it.
He may have fallen in; the concrete banks of the channel are steep and slick in the rain, Walker said. The area also is frequented by homeless people, but authorities did not know this morning whether the dead man was a homeless person, Walker said.
That first swift-water rescue of the year in the Las Vegas Valley came as flood control canals and basins filled during Monday's steady downpour.
The storm that caused the drenching, coming off the California coast, is a sign of things to come, forecasters said. It is part of a system that is expected to bring rain and patchy fog again later today along with snow to the mountains and potential flooding for the next week.
Coming off the fourth-wettest recorded year in Las Vegas' history, 2005 could continue on that track because the jet stream, a river of wind that helps drive storms around the globe, has tapped into tropical moisture that normally swirls around the Hawaiian Islands.
Known as the "pineapple express," the tropical moisture could enhance any storms forming in the Pacific Northwest before driving south down the California coast then swinging into Nevada, said weather service meteorologist Donald Maker.
A national network of climatologists has watched this happen several times since October, when the first flush of rain fell in the Southwest, said Kelly Redmond of the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno.
"It's quite fascinating," Redmond said. "We didn't expect this to happen. It's taken a lot of us aback."
Rain Monday caused spot flooding throughout the valley. It dropped .041 of an inch of rain at the weather service's office in the southwest valley and 15 inches of snow at Mount Charleston since Monday morning.
Roads in the valley were clogged as drivers tried slogging through the rain. There were reports of debris in the roads, washed out pavement and other minor problems. Other than the man swept into the flood control channel, considered a typical problem in rainy weather as people get too close, emergency officials did not report any additional swift-water rescues.
Local firefighters train year-round for swift-water rescues such as Monday's storm and typically are kept busy when it rains in Southern Nevada. The new year is already bringing record-breaking weather to the valley with water flowing across streets and dozens of accidents occurring on the rain-slicked pavement.
The all-time rainfall record for Jan. 3 at McCarran International Airport was shattered Monday when 0.29 of an inch of rain fell by noon, weather service meteorologist Andy Bailey said.
The old record for Jan. 3 of 0.28 of an inch of rain was set in 1955 and tied in 1995. The average rainfall total for the day is 0.02 of an inch. A total of 0.69 of an inch was officially reported Monday night, the amount of rain Las Vegas normally receives in an average January.
The total of 7.76 inches of rain for 2004 put it as the fourth wettest year in local weather records kept since 1934.
The steady beat of raindrops ushered in a wet spell that could last for a week to 10 days, weather service forecasters said.
The stormy weather was responsible for equipment failure near Sahara Avenue and Maryland Parkway that blacked out between 400 and 500 Nevada Power Co. customers Monday, utility spokesman Edgar Patino said. The outage occurred west of Maryland, south of Eastern Avenue, east of Linwood Avenue and north of Karen Avenue. It began at 5:36 p.m. and Nevada Power crews had the electricity flowing by 7 p.m.
Winter storms bringing snow to Southern Nevada's mountains and rainshowers to the valley are expected to continue for a week to 10 days with brief respites of clear sky. Rain is expected to continue until this afternoon with the next rainfall arriving late Thursday.
The U.S. Forest Service this morning continued its avalanche advisory for the Kyle and Lee canyons as well as the backcountry areas of the Spring Mountains area near Mount Charleston, saying large patches of unstable snow could cause destructive avalanches.
The advisory does not include the Las Vegas Ski and Snowboard Resort, which has its own avalanche control program, according to a forest service statement.
Because the forest service is not equipped to monitor possible avalanche activity in the backcountry areas, the agency urges those who venture to that area watch snow conditions before they go.
With a weak El Nino this winter, weather scientists believe the western United States may be in for a Madden-Julian oscillation, also known as an intraseasonal oscillation.
The oscillation features a week to 10 days of rainfall, that can bring flooding. The weather service issued a flood watch for Southern Nevada until 9 p.m. Monday.
The "pineapple express" last arrived in California during the winter of 1996-97, according to the National Climate Prediction Center.
Heavy flooding in California and the Pacific Northwest caused up to $3 billion in damage.
The Madden-Julian oscillation is so rare that there has been only three of them in the past century, Redmond said.
"The desert wildflowers should be beautiful this spring," he said.
Although Southern Nevada has been gripped by more than five years of drought, whether this wetter winter will break the dry spell is still questionable.
Stormy weather affects local areas and may not refill the reservoirs along the Colorado River stretching from Wyoming to the Mexican border.
"You could still be in drought across the region and be drowning," Redmond said.
So far the Rocky Mountain snowpack is about average, but it will be April before climatologists and hydrologists can predict what the spring runoff will be.
"You can't tell from one storm or one winter," Redmond said. "A climate change has the effect of loading the dice," so weather patterns would repeat more often.
"You have to have many, many, many throws of the dice."
Climate Prediction Center:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.html
SYNOPSIS: A persistent weather pattern will feature a deep trough along the West Coast and an unseasonably strong subtropical ridge over the Southeast. At the beginning of the outlook period, an intense storm will bring more heavy precipitation to southern California and portions of the Southwest. Farther north, a nearly stationary area of low pressure combined with subtropical moisture will continue the very wet weather across northern and central California. Meanwhile, intrusions of arctic air will likely progress southward into Montana from January 7 - 11. Across the Pacific Northwest and northern California, much below normal temperatures are also anticipated. Elsewhere, recent wetness from late December into early January has resulted in small stream and river flooding in the Ohio Valley. Across the South and East, above-normal temperatures will persist early in the outlook period. However, the potential exists for another winter storm in the Midwest during the Day 6 - 10 period. Dry, mild weather will prevail in western Alaska, while sharply colder temperatures could occur in eastern Alaska later in the Assessment period.
HAZARDS
# Heavy precipitation is likely in southern California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona on January 7, 2005. Locally heavy rain is expected in the valleys, while heavy snow falls in the mountains.
# From January 7 - 10, periods of heavy precipitation will continue for northern and central California. Several more feet of snow is possible in the mountains while several inches of rain falls in the lower elevations. The prolonged period of heavy precipitation will likely lead to hydrological problems.
# Recent snowmelt combined with heavy rainfall has resulted in some flooding of small streams and rivers in the Ohio Valley. These flooding problems are expected to continue thru at least January 9.
# Much below normal temperatures are expected for the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and far northern Rockies from January 7 - 11. # A long-term drought continues across much of the interior West but the models continue to forecast troughing over the western states. That pattern would be favorable for some drought relief during this period.
DETAILED SUMMARY
For Friday January 7 - Sunday January 9, 2005: This time period will feature persistent stormy weather in California as a highly amplified pattern remains located in the Pacific and western U.S. On January 7, confidence remains quite high that another intense storm will impact southern California and adjacent areas of the Southwest. Heavy rain and flash flooding will accompany the storm in the lower elevations while heavy snow falls in the higher elevations. Meanwhile, a blocking pattern will develop from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, another cold, wet storm will impact northern and central California. From January 7 - 10, a favorable coupling of the polar and subtropical jets will bring several more feet of snow to the mountains and several more inches of rain to the lowest elevations. Snow levels could become quite low on January 8 and 9. The extended period of very heavy rain and snow will likely lead to worsening hydrological problems across California. Elsewhere, recent snowmelt and heavy rainfall this week will prolong the flooding of small streams and rivers across the Ohio River Valley. Much below normal temperatures will be limited to the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and the far northern Rockies during this time period. A series of arctic fronts will cross the U.S./Canadian border and allow Arctic air to enter Montana. Otherwise, a strong subtropical ridge will keep the South and much of the East unseasonably warm.
For Monday January 10 - Friday January 14, 2005: Unsettled, colder-than-normal weather will likely continue across much of the West as a deep trough remains in place. The highly amplified pattern over the eastern Pacific and North America is forecat to persist. The latest OZ GFS run suggests that the trough axis may shift eastward, providing a favorable weather pattern for cyclogenesis on the Great Plains. Therefore, inclement winter weather could affect the Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. Bitterly cold temperatures are likely over the northern Rockies and northern Plains, and an expansion of the arctic airmass into more of the West and Great Plains could occur during this time period. Farther east, the potential exists for more heavy rainfall and flooding in the Ohio Valley due to an intensifying baroclinic zone. Otherwise, in the lower 48, dry, unseasonably warm weather will persist for the Southeast. Elsewhere, shaprply colder temperatures could impact eastern Alaska.
For Saturday January 15 - Tuesday January 18, 2005: Individual weather hazards can not be specified during this time period as uncertainty grows. However, the persistence of a negative PNA pattern suggests that above-normal precipitation could linger in the West. In the short-term, hydrological flooding problems will likely arise in California, but relief from a multiple year drought will continue in the West. For the Great Plains into the Midwest, a stormy weather pattern is quite apparent for mid-January. Elsewhere, in the East, confluence at the mid-levels could lead to the development of strong surface highs in eastern Canada. During the winter, this pattern typically leads to potential ice storms over the Northeast. Farther south, no major cold outbreaks are anticipated for Florida into mid-January.
Click here for a discussion of the GFS Ensemble forecasts.
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.