PING
Posted on 01/04/2005 8:56:14 PM PST by adaven
Trio of storm systems could have devastating impact on U.S.
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON - Moisture-laden storms from the north, west and south are likely to converge on much of America over the next several days in what could be a once-in-a-generation onslaught, meteorologists forecast Tuesday.
If the gloomy computer models at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center are right, we'll see this terrible trio:
All three are likely to meet somewhere in the nation's midsection and cause even more problems, sparing only areas east of the Appalachian Mountains.
"You're talking a two- or three-times-a-century type of thing," said prediction center senior meteorologist James Wagner, who's been forecasting storms since 1965. "It's a pattern that has a little bit of everything."
While the predicted onslaught is nothing compared with the tsunami that ravaged South Asia last week, the combo storms could damage property and cause a few deaths.
The exact time and place of the predicted one-two-three punch changes slightly with every new forecast. But in its weekly "hazards assessment," the National Weather Service alerted meteorologists and disaster specialists Tuesday that flooding and frigid weather could start as early as Friday and stretch into early next week, if not longer.
"It's a situation that looks pretty potent," Ed O'Lenic, the Climate Prediction Center's operations chief, told Knight Ridder. "A large part of North America looks like it's going to be affected."
Kelly Redmond, the deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev., where an unusual 18 inches of snow is on the ground already, said the expected heavy Western rains could cause avalanches. Since Oct. 1, Southern California and western Arizona have had three to four times the normal precipitation for the area.
"Somebody is in for something pretty darn interesting," Redmond said.
The last time a similar situation seemed to be brewing - especially in the West - was in January 1950, O'Lenic said. That month, 21 inches of snow hit Seattle, killing 13 people in an extended freeze, and Sunnyvale, Calif., got an unusual tornado.
The same scenario played out in 1937, when there was record flooding in the Ohio River Valley, said Wagner, of the prediction center.
Meteorologists caution that their predictions are only as good as their computer models. And forecasts get less accurate the farther into the future they attempt to predict.
"The models tend to overdo the formation of these really exciting weather formations for us," said Mike Wallace, a University of Washington atmospheric scientist.
Yet the more Wallace studied the models the more he became convinced that something wicked was coming this way.
"It all fits together nicely," Wallace said. "There's going to be weather in the headlines this weekend, that's for sure."
Wagner was worried about the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys as the places where the three nasty storm systems could meet, probably with snow, thunderstorms, severe ice storms and flooding. Some of those areas already are flooded.
The converging storms are being steered by high-pressure ridges off Alaska and Florida and are part of a temporary change in world climate conditions, O'Lenic said.
Over equatorial Indonesia, east of where the tsunami hit, meteorologists have identified a weather-making phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's producing extra-stormy weather to its east. Similar oscillations in the north Atlantic and north Pacific are changing global weather patterns. Add to the strange mix this year's mild El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific - which is unusually far west, Redmond said.
There's also another, more playful explanation: The nation's weathermen are about to converge on Southern California, and they bring bad weather with them.
The American Meteorological Society will meet next week in usually tranquil San Diego, which should be hit with the predicted storms and accompanying flooding in time for the group's gathering.
In 1987,when the meteorologists met in San Antonio for their convention, the city had ice storms. In 1993, when they gathered in Anaheim, Calif., it rained for 4.5 out of five days and triggered mudslides. Atlanta got rare snow during the meteorologists' 1996 convention. And in 2003 in Long Beach, Calif., heavy rain greeted them.
Ron McPherson, the group's recently retired executive director, said: "It always rains on the weatherman's parade."
Was that nice? No, it wasn't and you may have to give refuge to a large number of wet Freepers. BTW, do you serve brunches?:)
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...BUT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TODAY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE BY THE TIME THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS THURSDAY MORNING.
What part of Indiana are you from?
Careful what you ask for.
And if you promise to keep The Weather Channel on 24/7's while hiding under your bed.
Cheer Up!... you could be dealing with the weather in Indonesia.
PING
Oh oh, are you going to get it yet again?
Que peste!! lol
Yeah, I saw a story earlier that Richard Gere is speaking for the entire world. Apparently so!
Is Florida (Northeast or East-Central) supposed to get anything from this? They didnt say anything...:)
So the storm-ravaged state might not be ravaged at all by a new storm. Hmm.
Are you in the Coachella Valley?
We have been very lucky here in NE PA. I am counting down to Spring. No snow yet and next week we are headed for the 50's.
Good God, you are about to be devastated by good weather.
Up near the airport it turned to snow, no problem on the roads there either.
We're under a flood watch, with snow, ice and sleet expected for the day, temps dropping during the afternoon, and rising again this evening.
Could get REALLY bad, but it's not yet, so I'm getting out while the getting's good. :o)
Ya gotta love winter in Ohio!
I believe the storms are converging as we speak......just rain in this area, but dad's getting ice...will head up there on Monday....Hope it's cleared by then.
Oh, I forgot to mention...........I am absolutely sure that Bush caused this, so I'm not voting for him ever again......
Her family was jealous! :o)
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