Posted on 01/04/2005 8:56:14 PM PST by adaven
Trio of storm systems could have devastating impact on U.S.
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON - Moisture-laden storms from the north, west and south are likely to converge on much of America over the next several days in what could be a once-in-a-generation onslaught, meteorologists forecast Tuesday.
If the gloomy computer models at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center are right, we'll see this terrible trio:
All three are likely to meet somewhere in the nation's midsection and cause even more problems, sparing only areas east of the Appalachian Mountains.
"You're talking a two- or three-times-a-century type of thing," said prediction center senior meteorologist James Wagner, who's been forecasting storms since 1965. "It's a pattern that has a little bit of everything."
While the predicted onslaught is nothing compared with the tsunami that ravaged South Asia last week, the combo storms could damage property and cause a few deaths.
The exact time and place of the predicted one-two-three punch changes slightly with every new forecast. But in its weekly "hazards assessment," the National Weather Service alerted meteorologists and disaster specialists Tuesday that flooding and frigid weather could start as early as Friday and stretch into early next week, if not longer.
"It's a situation that looks pretty potent," Ed O'Lenic, the Climate Prediction Center's operations chief, told Knight Ridder. "A large part of North America looks like it's going to be affected."
Kelly Redmond, the deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev., where an unusual 18 inches of snow is on the ground already, said the expected heavy Western rains could cause avalanches. Since Oct. 1, Southern California and western Arizona have had three to four times the normal precipitation for the area.
"Somebody is in for something pretty darn interesting," Redmond said.
The last time a similar situation seemed to be brewing - especially in the West - was in January 1950, O'Lenic said. That month, 21 inches of snow hit Seattle, killing 13 people in an extended freeze, and Sunnyvale, Calif., got an unusual tornado.
The same scenario played out in 1937, when there was record flooding in the Ohio River Valley, said Wagner, of the prediction center.
Meteorologists caution that their predictions are only as good as their computer models. And forecasts get less accurate the farther into the future they attempt to predict.
"The models tend to overdo the formation of these really exciting weather formations for us," said Mike Wallace, a University of Washington atmospheric scientist.
Yet the more Wallace studied the models the more he became convinced that something wicked was coming this way.
"It all fits together nicely," Wallace said. "There's going to be weather in the headlines this weekend, that's for sure."
Wagner was worried about the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys as the places where the three nasty storm systems could meet, probably with snow, thunderstorms, severe ice storms and flooding. Some of those areas already are flooded.
The converging storms are being steered by high-pressure ridges off Alaska and Florida and are part of a temporary change in world climate conditions, O'Lenic said.
Over equatorial Indonesia, east of where the tsunami hit, meteorologists have identified a weather-making phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's producing extra-stormy weather to its east. Similar oscillations in the north Atlantic and north Pacific are changing global weather patterns. Add to the strange mix this year's mild El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific - which is unusually far west, Redmond said.
There's also another, more playful explanation: The nation's weathermen are about to converge on Southern California, and they bring bad weather with them.
The American Meteorological Society will meet next week in usually tranquil San Diego, which should be hit with the predicted storms and accompanying flooding in time for the group's gathering.
In 1987,when the meteorologists met in San Antonio for their convention, the city had ice storms. In 1993, when they gathered in Anaheim, Calif., it rained for 4.5 out of five days and triggered mudslides. Atlanta got rare snow during the meteorologists' 1996 convention. And in 2003 in Long Beach, Calif., heavy rain greeted them.
Ron McPherson, the group's recently retired executive director, said: "It always rains on the weatherman's parade."
Wow ! I always wondered how bad those big hail storms were . That's pretty crazy .
Anyone remember the last time they predicted "the storm of the century" in California? It was the nicest weekend we had had in a long time.
The last time a similar situation seemed to be brewing - especially in the West - was in January 1950, O'Lenic said. That month, 21 inches of snow hit Seattle, killing 13 people in an extended freeze
Let's hope they're as wrong as they usually are!
Ping
I've been there. I'll take dumping sand out of my shoes over knocking snow off the tops of them. The snow shovel was not put in the moving van.
Angel in the Waters -- New Pro-Life book for children [Tissue Alert]
LOL - no problemo. My husband mentioned getting a snow blower. I mentioned (in return) the *fact* that we have 3 teenagers in the house who need to earn their chore money. They can all be snow pushers ;-).
HAHAHAHA! Dang weather predictors. What do THEY know? ;-)
"All three are likely to meet somewhere in the nation's midsection and cause even more problems, sparing only areas east of the Appalachian Mountains."
Dammit! We never get snow days in New Jersey anymore *grumble*
Qwinn
According to the National Weather Service, low temperatures in the 20s are expected to continue through Thursday morning, with a low of 23 degrees tonight.
Snow is forecast to reach the Willamette Valley floor late Thursday or early Friday, but forecasters aren't sure whether it will be a dusting or several inches
NW North Dakota and NE Montana have temps below -30F right now. Cold enough for me.
or......
...............not.
I am a Victim of Journalism.
Will they let me go if they are convinced that I am aftaid? I mean, I want to be a responsible Lemming and all...a sensitive person...who feels all kinds of other people's pain...n' all....
...so....we're all gonna die....or what..??...
...............give me a break.
Clearly, Bush's environmental policies are to blame.
Nah, more likely this piece of wisdom was written by some 24 year old Journalism major, eager to get his/her work noticed by some higher up editor. The news gathering/gatekeeping profession has oftimes turned into a ridiculous circus of young kids practicing their politics at their job.
We survived the winter of 1977. I'm not too worried about it.
Well, that's the problem. Stop the meeting!!! :)
thanks for the ping
You might want to battend down your house and move to a safer area? No?
You might want to batten down your house and move to a safer area? No?
Alerts for 60085
Number of Active Alerts: 1
Go to alert detail: 1
There is 1 active alert issued by the National Weather Service for 60085
ALERT 1 - Winter Storm Warning
HEAVY SNOW WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 6 AM CST (7 AM EST) THURSDAY
Issue Time: 3:24AM CST, Wednesday Jan 5, 2005
Valid Until: 10:30AM CST, Wednesday Jan 5, 2005
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HEAVY SNOW WARNING EXTENDED
UNTIL 6 AM CST (7 AM EST) THURSDAY
Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Chicago IL 318 AM CST Wed Jan 5 2005
1630- Boone-Cook-De Kalb-Dupage-Kane-Lake-Lee-Mchenry-Ogle-Winnebago-
... Heavy Snow Warning Extended Until 6 AM CST (7 AM Est) Thursday...
The Potential For Heavy Snowfall Of 6 To 10 Inches Is Greatest North Of A Line From Lee County To Aurora To Chicago. Periods Of Snow Will Continue Through The Day Today... Becoming Heavy Toward Evening Before Ending Early Thursday Morning. Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Possible Today... With 3 To 5 Inches Of Snow Possible Tonight. The Heaviest Snow Will Likely Occur From Very Late This Afternoon Into Tonight.
Snow Should Taper Off To Snow Showers For All Of Northern Illinois And Northwestern Indiana Late Wednesday Night And Early Thursday Morning.
Northeast Winds Of 15 To 25 Mph Will Cause Some Blowing And Drifting Snow.
Heavy Snow Will Reduce Visibility And Cause Roads And Walkways To Become Snow Covered And Hazardous. Avoid Travel. If You Must Travel, Use Caution. If Traveling In Open Country Carry A Winter Storm Survival Kit Including A Shovel, Dry Clothes And Blankets, Food, A Flashlight And Cell Phone.
Stay Tuned To Noaa Weather Radio And Other Local Media For Further Detail Or Updates.
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