Posted on 01/02/2005 6:26:51 PM PST by lancer
A LEADING geologist repeatedly warned Indonesian officials that an earthquake and tsunami would soon strike their shores, it emerged this weekend.
Kerry Sieh, professor of geology at California Institute of Technology, has been studying the region for nearly a decade.
Last July he became so concerned at the likely massive loss of life that he printed and distributed 5,000 posters and brochures around some of the islands later hit by the earthquake.
He addressed church congregations and schools to tell people what to do in an earthquake. His main advice was for people to live away from shorelines.
Sieh had been due to meet Indonesian officials last month to discuss a wider education programme but the meeting was cancelled at the last minute because the officials said they had no money.
Two weeks ago he expressed his fear that a big earthquake and tsunami were overdue in the region at a conference in San Francisco.
Sieh said this weekend: “No one can predict exactly when an earthquake will happen but it was clear that this area was at relatively high risk and such an event would definitely happen one day.
“We told them it would kill people, wreck infrastructure and destroy livelihoods. But our warnings were falling on deaf ears.
“My team and I decided to bypass the national and local government and start warning people directly. I hope our efforts saved some lives.”
Ten years ago Sieh installed monitors on islands off Sumatra. His research focused on the Mentawai Islands, a chain 100 miles south of the epicentre of the Boxing Day quake. Communication has not been re-established with the islands since the tsunami.
At his speech to the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, he pointed out that, historically, such events have occurred in clusters.
Sieh believes this means another quake could be on the way: “There is some evidence that the stresses on the tectonic plates south of the epicentre may now have increased and raised the chances of another major earthquake.”
If that's the case, I wonder why allah gave them brains.
(Can't believe no one has posted this, but I did the required searches and found nothing.)
Interesting.
Last July, lol. Like they could have done anything.
Thanks for the post. I have been waiting for some seismologist to say if a move along a tectonic plate might increase stress and another quake at another tectonic plate interface. Of course this will get no pulicity on major media they will move on to the Blake trial or some other blather.
The Indonesian Island closest to the epicenter, Simelue, had 30,000 people on it, and only 6 were killed; everyone went into the hills when they felt the quake. Not certain if he got posters out there.
IOW, Bush KNEW!
"Two weeks ago he expressed his fear that a big earthquake and tsunami were overdue in the region...."
The Thais are Buddists.
The Sri Lankans are mostly Buddists, I think. (Possibly Hindu but NOT mainly Muslims)
The Indians are maily Hindu.
The Indonesians are mostly Muslims.
People in those places are used to earthquakes. They didn't really think they were any big deal. The resorts earned a lot of money and people earn their livings by fishing.
People live in Florida even tho' it's dangerous. Must be a Muslim thing.
Yep, Sieh is referring to a section on the same fault to the south of the part that ruptured in this quake, that directly adjoins it. It appears to be "locked" and hasn't ruptured totally since 1833 (when it created a M 9.0 quake of its own.)
If it ruptured, based on the angles it at least likely wouldn't generate a tsunami that would hit Thailand or India or Sri Lanka.
How dreadfully frustrating for Sieh. To go to the extent with flyers and adressing churches and schools. He did all that one person could do.
I wonder if they are going to somehow blame this guy for not having done enough.
Kerry Sieh
Robert P. Sharp Professor of Geology
Seismological Laboratory
Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences
California Institute of Technology
Phone: (626) 395-xxxx
E-Mail: xxx@gps.caltech.edu
I am a geologist whose principal research interest is the study of earthquakes, although I've dabbled a bit in volcanoes, too. My students and colleagues and I use stratigraphy, geomorphology and geochronology to understand the geometries of earthquake faults, their evolution and their recent history. For example, we have determined how often the San Andreas fault has produced large earthquakes in southern California and how fast it has been slipping over the past many millennia. We have also studied large active faults in China, Taiwan, Turkey, Greece and Sumatra. Current projects are aimed at understanding the repetition of large earthquakes, active faults beneath the Los Angeles region, and the nature of large earthquakes in subduction zones.
http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~sieh/home.html
Somebody will probably attack him for not working on the section of fault that ruptured. A lot of the usual cast of idiots on the USEnet science groups already are attacking scientists.
He actually did all of his work on the section of the fault to the south of it that didn't break in this quake, but that broke in 1833. His work is very painstaking and takes years, he analyzes Coral Heads to see how they've moved up and down relative to the surface of the water, and the section of the fault he worked on was simply easier to get to than the parts that ruptured in the Dec. 26th quake.
The scientific papers of him and his colleauges on the region are online at:
http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/sumatra/main/publications.html
Thanks.
I have felt since the big one that big ones are not done with in that region--or at least around the PAC RIM. But I do believe that even in that region, they are not over. I realize that's not the normal professional view. But I do have at least another couple of spiritually sensitive people who feel the same way I do. One is a FREEPER.
"Kerry Sieh, professor of geology at California Institute of Technology"
I heard an interview with one fo Sieh's colleagues (from Cal Tech)...
he said that there were lots of challenges to studying the sea floor in that area.
I think that was probably polite talk for "there's lots of conflicts with Islamics and other
nutjobs in the area".
AGREED, FOR SURE.
As a watchman, their blood is not on his hands.
No it probably had to do with evacuating tourists.
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