----Dan, you better understand that the MINUTE Hillary comes out with SERIOUS proposals to enforce immigration, those "248" electoral votes you give her will become 10, or fewer.----
Like I said, she's got 183 by default. Did you SEE this year's electoral map? Kerry only lost by 24 EV's (or 25, thanks to that dumbass elector in Minnesota), and he was an unlikeable nothing who ran a campaign based on nothing. He got as close as he did because a great many of the blue states are solid blue, no matter who runs on the Democrat ticket, and included in that number are the first and third largest states in the country. California's Republican Party is in shambles. New York is lost to Republicans pretty much forever -- NYC easily cancels out the rest of the state (that's how even Dukakis won there), and in any case, they're not going to vote against their own Beloved Senator. If not for Chicago, Bush would have been very competitive in Illinois this year -- but that city easily cancels out the rest of the state. Kerry won Chicago with 70% of the vote, and IL along with it, by ten points.
There are many other examples. All of New England, except for New Hampshire, is solid. New Jersey is solid. Maryland is solid. Washington State is solid (as we've seen from their governor's election, even when Republicans win there, they lose). It all translates into a formidable base of electoral votes. Hillary is VERY popular with the Democrat base, and they will turn out for her in droves. The Republicans don't even have a clear choice for a nominee yet.
The lesson of John F. Kerry is that you cannot beat a something with a nothing, and you cannot count on negative turnout to win a presidential election. Anyone who wishes to be realistic about 2008 will not underestimate Hillary -- we didn't think Bill had a chance, either.
-Dan