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To: LS

----Dan, you better understand that the MINUTE Hillary comes out with SERIOUS proposals to enforce immigration, those "248" electoral votes you give her will become 10, or fewer.----

Like I said, she's got 183 by default. Did you SEE this year's electoral map? Kerry only lost by 24 EV's (or 25, thanks to that dumbass elector in Minnesota), and he was an unlikeable nothing who ran a campaign based on nothing. He got as close as he did because a great many of the blue states are solid blue, no matter who runs on the Democrat ticket, and included in that number are the first and third largest states in the country. California's Republican Party is in shambles. New York is lost to Republicans pretty much forever -- NYC easily cancels out the rest of the state (that's how even Dukakis won there), and in any case, they're not going to vote against their own Beloved Senator. If not for Chicago, Bush would have been very competitive in Illinois this year -- but that city easily cancels out the rest of the state. Kerry won Chicago with 70% of the vote, and IL along with it, by ten points.

There are many other examples. All of New England, except for New Hampshire, is solid. New Jersey is solid. Maryland is solid. Washington State is solid (as we've seen from their governor's election, even when Republicans win there, they lose). It all translates into a formidable base of electoral votes. Hillary is VERY popular with the Democrat base, and they will turn out for her in droves. The Republicans don't even have a clear choice for a nominee yet.

The lesson of John F. Kerry is that you cannot beat a something with a nothing, and you cannot count on negative turnout to win a presidential election. Anyone who wishes to be realistic about 2008 will not underestimate Hillary -- we didn't think Bill had a chance, either.

-Dan

131 posted on 12/31/2004 8:40:59 AM PST by Flux Capacitor (NIXON NOW!!!)
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To: Flux Capacitor

And that leaves out the battle between Giuliani cultural liberals and cultural conservatives that will cripple the 2008 GOP nomination fight.


137 posted on 12/31/2004 8:48:51 AM PST by Sam the Sham
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To: Flux Capacitor
Bill didn't have a chance. He never got 50% of the vote.

But I would LOVE for the Dems to run Hillary, because that would be the coup de grace for a sick party.

156 posted on 12/31/2004 9:33:36 AM PST by LS
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To: Flux Capacitor
Like I said, she's got 183 by default. Did you SEE this year's electoral map?

Dubya and Rove could have won this election by a larger margin but it would have caused the rats to pull money from Kerry and invest it in Senate races. Reagan won 49 states in 84 but even that remarkable success had no coattails. Reagan couldn't get legislation past the Senate in his 2nd term. Bush's election strategery was brilliant. The Senator up for election in 06 will be wary of being Daschled and "lame duck" Dubya will pass lots of legislation while you get worked up about inconsequential things like electoral votes.

Republicans have won majorities in Congress every year for 10 years. Even during the Clinton impeachment. In 2002 and 2004 Dubya added Senators, and in 2004 Dubya won 98 of the 100 fastest growing counties in America. When Dubya signed CFR I opposed it on Constitutional grounds but it is hard to argue with success. CFR has certainly hurt the rats. I too was concerned that Governor Bush, the strong supporter of RKBA in Texas did nothing to reverse Clinton's AWB. Now I see the brilliance in not fighting a battle that wasn't needed. Time and again he has been misunderestimated.

I believe Dubya, a reformed alcoholic, prays for the serenity to accept the things he cannot change, the courage to change the things he can, and the wisdom to know the difference. I believe he is guided by the Holy Spirit. I hear it in his words and see it in his smile and good nature.

He is flawed like all men, but I do not believe he is greedy or lazy. Dubya has taken the responsibility that fate has handed him. I very much doubt that Dubya and Rove stopped planning at 2008. Dubya is doing a fantastic job and I couldn't be prouder of my vote to reelect him.

698 posted on 01/01/2005 9:30:14 PM PST by Once-Ler (My name is Once-Ler, King of Kings. Look on my works, ye Mighty, and dispair!)
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