You are probably correct in everything you say, but unfortunately, what you say doesn't address the argument he made. Three things auger well for her and terribly for the Republic:
(1)She is running to the right on enough issues (morality, being "born again", immigration), early enough, to make the gullible believe by the primaries;
(2) Look at the potential candidates for the Republicans--not a one to get the base excited; and,
(3) Agree or not, like it or not, Bush's second term will be not defined by the war on terror, but by his terrible stance on immigration and the "compassionate" portion of compassionate conservatism. Morale of conservatives will be dead by 2007.
Or even by late 2004.