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Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras.
Photo: A Prathap
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Posted on 12/29/2004 5:16:22 AM PST by ovrtaxt
E SARAVANAN
Chennai, Dec 27:
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Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras.
Photo: A Prathap
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The memories and the trauma caused by the tidal wave that washed out parts of coastal Chennai and other parts of the State yesterday will haunt the minds of the people for a long time to come.
It is a tough task to forget the damage left behind by the wave that was triggered by an earthquake in far off Indonesia. The Richter scale recorded the quake to be in the magnitude of 9.0.
What is so mysterious about the earthquake and the subsequent tidal wave? Cannot it be predicted earlier and the people be warned of it? Could necessary precautions be taken to minimise the loss to life and property? In fact, the quake was actually predicted by a team of research scholars of the Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras, with a permissible error, a week ago.
N Venkatanathan, research scholar, who is currently undergoing a Ph.D programme in Predicting Earthquake and Aseismic Construction Designing and the man behind the team working on predictions, said he had already presented a report about the Indonesian earthquake on 22 December to members of the Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi.
The 15-member team headed by S K Tandan were in Chennai at that time for a meeting.
Venkatanathan, said, 'we predicted that the disaster will occur on 26 December 2004 at 00:30 (GMT) with 3.54 N latitude and 97.17E longitude, which is located near the coast of Banyak Island, Sumatra, Indonesia, with a magnitude at around 6 to 7. The actual calamity occurred on 26 December 2004 at 00:58 (GMT), with 3.298 N latitude and 95.779 E longitude, located off the west coast of northern Sumatra'.
The difference in distance between the predicted place and the epicentre was 157.11899 km with a time difference of 28 minutes. He also said the team had predicted that the after-shocks would occur at 700 km to the South of the epicentre between 5 pm and 6 pm. This was recorded with permissible error. It occurred at 157 km from the epicentre. That is with the error of 521 km.
Venkatanathan and his guide N Rajeshwara Rao, research supervisor as he calls him, admit that 'we didn't expect the extent of damage it will cause to the Tamilnadu coast, since we expected the magnitude might be around 7.0, which cannot damage Tamilnadu. We never expected the consequent tidal waves that would have such a devasting effect on the coastal areas of Tamilnadu, admitted Rajeshwara Rao.
Venkatanathan explained that the prediction was based on a novel method developed by the team. According to the method, when two or more planets, Sun and the Moon get aligned more or less in line (0 to 180 degree) with the earth it could affect the angular momentum of the earth and decrease the speed of rotation of the earth which could trigger an earthquake.
But in order to trigger an earthquake in one particular place, two conditions should be taken into consideration, said Venkatanathan. One is the distance of the planetary configurations and two the directions of force acting at the possible epicenter.
Venkatanathan also clarified that by analysing the earthquakes that had occurred over the last 100 years, it was inferred that there was a role of planetary configurations in triggering earthquakes.
He added that the team had earlier predicted possibility of earthquake occurrences at 27 places, among which Assam was one, and presented a report at the International Conference of 'Hazards 2004' held at National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad.
He said the success of the prediction rate achieved so far was around 75 to 80 per cent within a time-frame of plus or minus three to four days.
Rajeshwara Rao said, 'we are in the process of refining the technique so as to achieve a better success rate for which we should have a network of inputs from various international research organisations. For this to happen there was a need for large-scale funding, which could be done through the Government. He said with these things in mind, the department had already submitted a proposal to the Tamilnadu government to establish a Centre for Earthquake and Natural Hazards Studies (CENHAS).
The department had also submitted proposals for collaborative programmes with Bulgaria and Uzbekistan through the Department of Science and Technology (DST), New Delhi.
when two or more planets, Sun and the Moon get aligned more or less in line (0 to 180 degree) with the earth it could affect the angular momentum of the earth and decrease the speed of rotation of the earth which could trigger an earthquake
So, to try and maintain speed, under principle of conservation of momentum, the earth shifted its wheel weights, so to speak. As a previous FRPR on another page suggested, the ice skater pulled in one hand, in order to speed up.
In this case, the Indian something - or - other - plate tucked under the Sumatra plate.
I've also been interested to find that a tsunami is more a gigantic broad surge-swell, than just a tall wave as presented for the public eye in "the literature" from the news.
(I remain a novice at all this area of geo-planetary stuff; always interested but never studied it.)
Al Jazeera- ha! figures
What evidence do they offer that this prediction was made prior to the actual event? Was it posted on the web somewhere?
and the next one will occur...???
'Rajeshwara Rao said, 'we are in the process of refining the technique so as to achieve a better success rate for which we should have a network of inputs from various international research organisations. For this to happen there was a need for large-scale funding,...
I think we've found their motivation.
Looks like we tried ... :-(
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