Posted on 12/28/2004 10:26:28 AM PST by Critical Bill
A new audiotaped communique allegedly from Osama bin Laden surfaced Dec. 27. On the tape, the al Qaeda leader calls upon Iraqis to boycott the Jan. 30 elections and announces that top Iraqi jihadist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is the network's representative in Iraq. This message shows that al Qaeda is very much interested in becoming a player in Iraq. That al Qaeda officially has announced al-Zarqawi's affiliation with the militant network also indicates that al Qaeda may be weakening -- or returning to its old tactics.
Analysis
Arabic-language satellite channel Al Jazeera reported that it has received a new audiotaped statement from al Qaeda's central leader Osama bin Laden, in which the jihadist mastermind calls for a boycott of the Jan. 30 elections in Iraq and pronounces top jihadist leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi his deputy.
If authentic, this taped message is the first official statement from al Qaeda prime that al-Zarqawi's group constitutes the jihadist network's Iraqi chapter. Osama bin Laden, in keeping with his moves of the past year, wants al Qaeda to assume a more political role. Considering that Iraq is a majority Shiite state and -- unlike Saudi Arabia -- its Sunni population does not share al Qaeda's Wahhabist theological underpinnings, al Qaeda's role in Iraq will be similar to that which the network is playing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which it uses as an example of problems facing the Muslim world in order to advance its own agenda.
Given this reality -- and that al Qaeda, after months of al-Zarqawi's efforts, has finally joined forces with his group -- suggests that the jihadist network may no longer be a strategic threat or driver of the international jihadist movement, and it is trying to counter that slip with a tactical shift in Iraq. Al Qaeda appears to be re-centering its focus on the Middle East -- pulling away from the West to focus its efforts closer to home, and closer to the larger pool of recruits.
The U.S.-led war against militant Islamism appears to have dealt a serious blow to al Qaeda's operational capabilities. The movement's apex leadership forced into hiding likely is unable to stage an attack on the scale of September 11. Therefore, it has resorted to assuming a much more political role as the ideological and geostrategic vanguard of the global tendency towards jihadism.
Prior to this official statement from bin Laden, al Qaeda's branch in Saudi Arabia had welcomed al-Zarqawi's pledge of allegiance to al Qaeda and bin Laden. Both al-Zarqawi and al Qaeda hope that this bilateral announcement will enhance the jihadists' fortunes, not just in Iraq, but worldwide.
It is unclear what type of enhanced operational capabilities jihadists in Iraq will be able to display as a result of this merger between al-Zarqawi's group based in Iraq and al Qaeda prime, whose leadership is based in Pakistan. There also is the matter of the attitude toward the Shia. Al-Zarqawi's understanding is that they are a heretical community, while al Qaeda has thus far refrained from attacking Shia, per se -- perhaps because some key Shiite figures are believed to be hiding out in Iran.
By issuing a call to boycott the polls, bin Laden's al Qaeda movement is trying to develop its image as a political player and not just a military group. Barring the Sunni minority (who already have announced their decision not to partake in the electoral process) the call likely will go unheeded. It would appear that al Qaeda is trying to assume leadership of local and regional jihadist actors post facto.
All the more reason to put al Zarqawi in a box.
ntb.
He has gone from threatening to kill millions to begging Iraqis not to vote...pathetic cave dweller.
This is the guy who would have put OBL in the grave if only he had searched those damn reporters thoroughly.
Osama and Zarqawi are butt buddies.....
Well his orders for Afghani's not to vote sure made a difference over there (/grin).
Good point.
After bin Laden's last audio tape, the media and analysts were questioning his failure to embrace Zarqawi. This weekend, he comes out in favor of the guy. It's nice to know that Osama is so accomodating to the pundits and the press.
indeed, but if anything, they are getting bolder. more attacks today against the iraqi police and national guard - do these police officers even fire a shot in defense of their own lives? or do they just wait in the stations to die?
All hat, no cattle.
All turban, no goats.
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