Posted on 12/28/2004 6:37:04 AM PST by areafiftyone
Longtime presidential strategist Dick Morris had words of caution yesterday for those who say Hillary Clinton can't generate the kind of national support she needs to put herself back in White House in 2008.
Not only will Sen. Clinton win her party's nomination in a walk, the former Clinton advisor contends that her chances of beating the GOP four years from now are "superb."
"She's so far ahead of Kerry and Edwards and any other possible nominee in the primaries that there really won't be a primary," Morris told Sean Hannity radio fill-in Dave Stone.
"The problem is," added the top consultant, "she has an awfully good chance of winning the election."
Explained Morris:
"She generates black turnout that's about ten-points higher than [John] Kerry got. So that's one extra point for the Democratic Party.
"She probably is going to restore the Hispanic margin to 30-points, as opposed to the ten-point margin Kerry had. That's two-points extra for the Democrats.
"And she'll probably carry single women by four-to-one. Kerry carried them by two-to-one. So that's another two-points [for the Dems].
That's five-points worth of support the Democrats didn't get in this year's vote - enough to trump President Bush's 51 to 49 percent margin of victory.
The questions is, can the GOP squeeze out another three points from their base?
Morris said he doesn't see how, noting, "In most areas the Republicans pretty well maxed out in their turn-out."
His conclusion: "I think Hillary has a superb chance to win."
Are there no Republican candidates on the horizon who can stop the former first lady?
Morris named three possibilities: Rudy Giuliani, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice.
Giuliani, however, won't be able to win the GOP nomination, said Morris, because of his socially liberal stance on issues like abortion, gun control and gay marriage.
What about Powell?
"I don't think Powell can win [the nomination]," the one-time Clinton political guru said. "I think people have gotten very annoyed at him in the Republican base during his service as Secretary of State."
Powell's replacement at State, however, has a better chance.
"Condoleezza Rice takes the black base and she takes the female base that's absolutely essential for Hillary's victory."
Said Morris: "Rice is the only person who can stop Hillary Clinton from being president."
That's why Hillary is running to the right of Bush on this issue, IMO. Figure that Hillary already has the left coast votes, plus the upper midwest and New England. If she can peel off a couple of southern states over the border issue (Ariz., N.M., Fla.) she can get to 270 EVs.
I think Hillary's best chance to win in '08 is with a credible third-party candidate splitting the Republican vote. That's one reason why I believe the MSM is pushing for McCain or Rudy G....because they know a social conservative candidate will likely run and split the Republican vote, leading to a Hillary win. Remember, Bill Clinton won in '92 with 43% of the popular vote.
Dick...can she win the South, paisano?...remember the Red Bible Thumping States?
Forget about this none sense with the Blacks, Hispanics, Yellows etcetera pp.(2 points here, 3 points there and so on...)
Let me give you a more realistic prediction...it will never happened!
Hillary does not have the presidential material, period!
You are hallucinating Morris!
Nuttin' against sucking toes in private, but seeing it on tape made me wanna puke. Somehow that sight makes minimizes Morris in my mind..........but what do I know?*~*
she NEEDS stopping in '06.......
So that's the litmus test? You've got to be kidding me. If a candidate held otherwise conservative positions on all the issues, but was pro-choice, you'd vote against them? That, my FRiend, is lunacy. Keep in mind here, most moderates and conservatives who are pro-choice are not the rabid abortion-at-any-time-or-age types.
There's a simple and effective rule - vote for the most overall conservative candidate for any given position, and you'll be doing well for the country.
Keep voting single-issue. We'll have President Rodham-Clinton in no time.
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