Posted on 12/24/2004 8:13:41 PM PST by Fitzcarraldo
Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office December 24, 2004
2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronmers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk) for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale.
Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029.
You've got to find a copy of Lucifer's Hammer, by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle. It's a bit dated, relying on 1970s tech which doesn't all hold up (you can't believe that their instruments are so bad, even though they were at the time), and a bit "un-PC," as much of their stuff is, but their description of figuring out the impact energy of a comet on the Earth is priceless.
They're interviewing a couple of JPL types and the geeks are looking for an analogy. The best thing they can come up with is a hot fudge sundae. They figure a cubic mile of vanilla ice cream:
"A cubic mile to play with. Five thousand two hundred and eighty feet, times twelve for inches, times two point five four for centimeters, cube that... We have two point seven seven six times ten to the fifteenth cubic centimeters of vanilla ice cream..(snip).. we have about two times ten to the fifteenth grams. Couple of billion tons. Now for the fudge...."
And they proceed accordingly. They provide the orbital speed for the comet:
29.7 kilometers per second times the square root of two..(snip).. forty-two km/sec,
Plus Earth's orbital velocity, they come up with a reasonable guess of 50 km/sec for impact. They take that and calculate energy:
"Square that, times a half. Times mass in grams. Bit over two times ten to the twenty eight ergs..(snip).. our grand total is two point seven times ten to the twenty eight ergs..(snip).. six hundred and fourty thousand megatons..(snip).. About three thousand Krakatoas. Or three hundred Thera explosions..(snip).."
So 1,600 MT doesn't sound all that big.
ook ook
Hot fudge Sundae is on Tuesday this week.
When it comes to stuff like this, size IS important.
The one that canned the dinosaurs (or at the least, helped) was ~200,000,000 Mt...
Two things to say.
First, any particular reason your premonition involves London?
Second,since you mentioned earthquakes, maybe your premonition was about the Indonesia disaster.
So many dead. So many missing or unaccounted for. What a tragedy.
Too bad we can't get the terrorists to contribute some to relief and aid, or at least quit killing people for a week.
Of course, I forget. Evil only dwells in their distorted minds.
No need to be cheeky.
Don't really know about London. I have seen a few others say something similar but I think I've had the 'thing' about London for many years. We shall see.
Of course the Jihadi idiots are not the only ones with evil. As Scripture says--the heart is deceitfully wicked, who can know it.
Certainly God has an infinite capacity to show an individual the darkness of his own heart. And His light can be searing, indeed. I know from repeated hard schooling on that score with very steep tuition every time.
Evidently you are free of such bothersome lessons?
I don't have any focused sense about quakes except maybe that LA, SD AND ESPECIALLY SEATTLE are at great risk. But that's no surprise. Any fool should know that.
I don't know if Frisco is going to go by quake or nuke. I just believe it's AT LEAST at as great a risk and probably much greater than the rest of the LEFT coast.
I'm watching keenly. I somewhat would not be surprised if there were another 1-3 8.X quakes in the next 60 days. We shall see. I don't know it. It's certainly not the level of subtle impression that I'd bank anything on. It's just a very, very, very subtle hunch, slight impression sort of thing. Those can vary enormously in accuracy.
I do believe that when God starts to rachet up the quake thing as part of His increasingly full court press getting people's attention who CAN be saved and dealing decisively with evil in many places--WHEN He does start that . . . series of . . . projects . . . the quakes and tsunami's resulting will make this one look like a tennis ball splashing in a kids wading pool from a few feet away.
And, the series of quakes then will likely be in many areas of the world in sequence and some at the same time. They will shock the best experts. No one will have answers or explanations. Some of them will be in areas virtually quake free for recorded history.
I don't know if Hoover dam will fail from a quake or what. Have been told that even a big nuke wouldn't do it much damage. I have just felt it was going to fail big time in the not too distant future = within 55 years . . . more likely within 20 years.
I also do believe that very large portions of CA WILL go under water. Perhaps a beginning will be the Gulf of California coming all the way up into the Salton sea and Death Valley areas. But I don't really know the order or sequence of such things.
I assume that California will mostly be a very loose grouping of fairly distant islands when the shaking is all finished with that region.
I don't know if Phoenix is going to end up a seaport as some claim but I wouldn't be that surprised, if it did.
I think Seattle really depends on the Believers in that area. It has the potential to be worse than LA or SF, I think.
I do believe that a string of volcanoes on the Left coast are going to go off horribly. And some will sprout where none are known to be. I keep wondering what the San Francisco peaks will be doing at that time.
Then, of course, there's Yellowstone. God help us with that one. I don't really know what's going to happen with it but I sure wouldn't be surprised if it blew. I just hope not in it's traditional huge way.
Ok, rant and shred away. But if you do, I may not reply.
I wish.
Of course, previously on FR you've proven impervious to actual valid scienfitic info in regards to your apocalyptikook fantasies, and I don't hold out much hope that will ever change.
49 posted on 12/25/2004 7:58:58 PM EST by Strategerist
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This was posted pre-tsunami!?
Nice to know . . . you are human, too.
Nice to know . . . you are human, too.
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