Horowitz: N. Korea To Implode In a Year(gone by next Xmas?)

Yonhap News ^ | Kim Dae-young | 12/24/04

[TigerLikesRooster]

/begin my translation

Horowitz: N. Korea To Implode In a Year( gone by next Xmas?)

"The Passage of N. Korean Human Right Act signals the demise of N. Korean regime"

(Washington/Yonhap) Kim Dae-young - Speaking of N. Korea, Michael Horowitz, a leading American conservative figure and a Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute, predicted on (Dec) 23rd that N. Korea will "implode" within a year.

In a lecture given at Hudson Institute in Washington D.C. under the title of "It Ain’t Christmas in Pyongyang: Will the Kim Jong-Il Regime Last?", he told the audience, "N. Korea will implode before the next Christmas. Kim Jong-il won't enjoy Christmas next year."

Horowitz recently made a trip to S. Korea, during which he leveled criticisms toward S. Korean government's policy on N. Korea and advocated the regime-change in N. Korea.

He said, "The collapse of communist regimes is a historical inevitability. N. Korea will collapse on her own. Its day is fast-approaching."

He also mentioned the possibility of a coup inside N. Korea.

He went on to say, "After we find a few generals who could shut down their political prison camps and nuclear weapons programs, we could send them a message, saying that we could support them if they take certain actions.

I am sure that the political cost China has to pay for keeping Kim Jong-il regime afloat, is rising to the point that China had selected a N. Korean general who would replace Kim Jong-il. Chinese have studied a scenario in which the chosen general overthrows the regime, declares the state of emergency in N. Korea, and ask China to send 200,000 troops into the country."

As for N. Korean Human Right Act, he said, "Last September, in an unanimous vote, the Senate passed N. Korean Human Right Act, which is tougher than its House version. This is a strong signal for the demise of N. Korean regime. It was a dismaying development for this great country(S. Korea) that, while touring countries like Poland and Britain, (S. Korean) President Roh Moo-hyun talked about how Kim Jong-il will get to stay around for a long time." He also emphasized that Roh Moo-hyun's popularity is mere 19%.

A participant, who is an official from S. Korean embassy to U.S, countered, "Roh Moo-hyun's policy on N. Korea reflects a majority opinion of S. Koreans. S. Korean government is in close consultation with American government. N. Korean human right is important. However, we have to also consider WMD's, intra-Korean co-operation. We need to approach N. Korean problem in a multi-dimensional way. It is complicated and tangled."

However, Horowitz retorted, "The problem is not complicated, but quite simple. The more you give money to N. Korea in exchange for dismantling nuclear weapons, the more nukes would N. Korea get to make."

/end my translation

[TigerLikesRooster]

What is standing out in his speech is that he picked a deadline, the next Christmas, in 2005. Can we infer that operations are already in progress to meet this deadline? Next Christmas could be a special one.:)

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[cardinal4]

He said, "The collapse of communist regimes is a historical inevitability.

How the world changes, it wasnt that long ago that marxists and commies were saying the same thing about world socialism

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #3

I noticed that, too. A final nail into the legacy of Karl Marx.:)

[ConservativeMan55]

Is Michael Horowitz related to David???

Just curious.

[DB]

They were "saying the same thing" about capitalism.

[RushLake]

This will be great news if it happens.

A real positive would be that another role model for outfits like the democrap party, the Michigan Department of Environmental (Stalinist) Quality, and the EPA may no longer exist. Of course, they'll still have cuba, canada, france and germany.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #5

I can't help you there.:) I don't know.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #7

You aim high, don't you?:)

[cardinal4]

Where would Kim and his ilk go? Would they be exiled to China? Tried? If DPRK was to cave, would the Chinese move in?

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #10

Kim Jong-il has a fortified bunker complex in N.E. N. Korea near Chinese border. He has many in the country. However, this one is the newest and probably the most secure. He could head there to stick it out if going gets tough. After that, I don't know.

China would most likely move in, the moment things would get out of hand in N. Korea.

[doosee]

Next Christmas could be a special one.:)

Just in time for the Team America sequel, as KJI croons "I'm so ronely I could cwy"

[jigsaw]

Thank you very much for translating and posting this.

[InvisibleChurch]

replacing the nkorean regime with 200,000 chinese troops ... i'm sure political prisoners feel better already

[Rockingham]

The prediction is bold but plausible. North Korea seems close to the brink.

The border with China has become increasingly porous due to a combination of border guard corruption and desperate poverty that has forced hundreds of thousands of North Koreans to seek food and work in China. A return flow of cell phones, radios, and DVDs has brought a view of the world outside and has given North Korea's elite an understanding of just how awful their country's ruling clique is. Massive, self-imposed famine could not do it, but South Korean soap operas and their incontestable visual proof of affluence to the south has destroyed the legitimacy of the North Korean regime.

Official US comments have been mild recently, as if we are waiting for the process of decay to come to fruition. Due to the security risks, an impromptu assassination and coup are as likely to succeed as a carefully planned effort. China, South Korea, and Japan all seem disinclined to bail out the regime with massive aid and political support, so it looks to be mostly a matter of time.

Odd, isn't it, that communist regimes all seem to have a natural life span of about fifty to seventy five years? Who knows, perhaps we will one day see the liberation of our college campuses.

[Joe Boucher]

Sort of like East and west germany, when the wall fell. East germany was an economic basket case. How much do you think it will cost either South korea or China to help put right north korea?

[alessandrofiaschi]

It could became an open air museum of the tragedy of communism (another one, perhaps the worst).

[alessandrofiaschi]

It could become an open air museum of the tragedy of communism (another one, perhaps the worst).

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #15

Yeah, some day, all hard-core left-wing ex-hippie college professors will be overthrown and tried for crimes against Academia.:)

[Grampa Dave]

Phil here is your cue!:)

Just in time for the Team America sequel, as KJI croons "I'm so ronely I could cwy"!