Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
During the Black Death there were plenty of festivities.
Well, we can all blow off the tax filings that year. Finally!
Bring it on.
From http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news149.html:
"The asteroid's motion subsequent to the 2029 Earth close approach is very sensitive to the circumstances of the close approach itself and a number of future Earth close approaches will be monitored as additional observations are received"
So after 2029, all bets are off, well need to recalculate the trajectory.
Oh well I won't be around
:') I was just updating from the NEO program page (NASA/JPL). The odds in 2036 are shown as 1:13,000, but from what I read on the page you linked, the claim is that there won't be any 21st c encounters in which the Earth will be at risk. Guess I'd better read some more...
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
I'll probably win the lottery on April 12, 2029.
Eight total rendezvous, and three consecutive years with Torino 1. The more the refinement, the less it seems to go away. No impact, probably, but could be a good show.
no change:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
this looks kinda fun:
Observation prediction for 6344P-L
http://131.114.72.13/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?obspred:0;main;6344P-L;81679
6344P-L is one of a number of lost objects shown on this page:
http://131.114.72.13/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main
Just a bit of curiousity, perhaps you can help me.
Mass of the 2004MN4 is given as 4.6e+10 kg
The online converter I used gave that as 39811 kilograms
That converted to 87,768.2311984 pounds, or almost 44 tons.
That seems like an awfully small number for an object with a diamter of .320 km (about a fifth of a mile), unless it's frozen gas.
Oh, wait, never mind... I found this page works better:
http://www.onlineconversion.com/weight_all.htm
46000000000 kilogram = 101,412,640,605.044 pounds
46000000000 kilogram = 50,706,320.3025218 tons [short]
Fifty million tons. Much better.
Glad to help.
back up to 1 in 6,250 chance. Three close encounters (which I believe is down from four, but I didn't check), nine total encounters, dates follow.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
2035-04-14
2036-04-13
2037-04-13
Can't they send a probe or something to find out what the rock is composed of, as well as analysis done on earth, then during each of it 2x a year passes near earth send up rockets with lots of chemicals that, when combined on the asteroid surface, will dissolve it?
I figured it would be hard to do that for something that was hundreds of miles, but something like this is only 1300 feet wide. If we can dissolve about 27 feet of width (of course there is height and depth to worry about too, but just more chemicals) on every near pass between now and then, it would be about the size of a baseball in 24 years.
That was my own invented way of getting rid of a 'too close to call' asteroid - reduce it in size significantly before an expected hit via chemistry. I also always figured I must be missing something since it's sounds too easy.
And I don't even play a scientist on tv!
Clinton blames the NRA.
"If we can dissolve about 27 feet of width (of course there is height and depth to worry about too, but just more chemicals) on every near pass between now and then, it would be about the size of a baseball in 24 years."
Ooooor, instead of whittling it down, we could build a really large bat, and...
Good, I'm travelling to the outer edges of space that month.../s
no change. d*** these boring space objects.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
Yeah? And chicken little thought that acorn meant the sky was falling...
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