Posted on 12/23/2004 9:08:48 AM PST by lizol
20th December 2004
Brothers in arms or an ally scorned?
From Warsaw Business Journal
by Andrew Kureth
Events of the past 12 months have shown where Polish-American relations are gaining strength-and put a spotlight on where tensions are growing.
No event this year dominated the American news like the race for the White House between Democratic Senator John Kerry and the incumbent, President George W. Bush. Though America was bitterly divided on the issues, there was never any question as to which candidate Poland supported. Survey after survey showed Poland was the only country in Europe in which more citizens favored Bush over his opponent.
According to the U.S. Ambassador to Poland, Victor Ashe: "Polish-American relations have done extremely well in 2004. George W. Bush's re-election is especially important to continuing this relationship in 2005."
And for Poles, continuity is key. Now, for their support, they expect some payback, but Poland becoming a member of the U.S.'s visa-waiver program looks like a long shot. Bush has indicated that he intends to make the business relationship between the two countries a priority, but whether that will be enough remains to be seen.
United in war? The biggest issue on which Poles believe they have demonstrated loyalty to their partner across the pond is the nearly two-year-old war in Iraq. Poland has paid the price of fealty, losing 16 soldiers in Iraq since the war began.
Involvement in the Iraq effort does have its benefits. Polish companies are in a favorable position when it comes time to award reconstruction contracts. American organizations are now providing training and assistance to firms here interested in entering the tender process.
According to Marek K³oczko, general secretary of the Polish Chamber of Commerce, this signifies a tightening of business relations between the two countries. "Economic cooperation was, up to now, on a very low level. Now, thanks to the cooperation in Iraq, we feel that they are starting to improve."
The U.S. has committed $15.19 (z³.47.71) billion to revitalizing the war-torn country, So far, hundreds of Polish companies have lined up to provide everything from construction to pharmaceuticals to furniture. But according to K³oczko's estimates, Polish companies will see only five percent of the funds. This drop in the bucket is not meeting Polish expectations.
Casualties have also taken their toll. The killing of popular journalist Waldemar Milewicz in May and the kidnapping two months ago of Teresa Borcz-Kalifa, a Polish-born woman living in Iraq, have brought the reality of the war home to many Poles. Now the government says it has rethought its policy on Iraq, and has pledged to remove its troops from the country by the end of 2005.
The dropping dollar One major factor that has weighed on the minds of all businesspeople in Poland this year is the weak dollar. The dollar started its slide south last year and hasn't found it's way back to strength.
The effect of a listless dollar on the Polish economy is mixed, but Linda Mysliwy Conlin, of the U.S. Export-Import Bank takes a positive view. "Understandably the value of the dollar in relation to the z³oty makes U.S. imports that much more competitive," she told the WBJ in an interview this month.
As the WBJ was going to press, Polish national airline LOT was due to make a decision regarding whether to revitalize its fleet with Airbus's A330 or with Boeing's 7E7. With the dollar costing around only z³.3.2, an American Boeing is now much cheaper than it would have been just a few months ago.
But not all believe the weak dollar will have a beneficial effect. Prime Minister Marek Belka has said that exports are "the engine of the Polish economy"-but Polish businesses looking to break into the enormous American market are having a hard time nowadays, since Polish goods are now more expensive for Americans. Some think this could bring the burgeoning Polish economy to a screeching halt.
Offset Upheaval Two years ago this month, the Polish government chose to buy 48 F-16s from the U.S.'s Lockheed Martin (LM) to reinforce its army. The deal obliged LM to arrange some $6 (z³.22) billion in offset investments in Poland. Some of these projects have already occurred, such as General Motor's relocation of a production plant from Germany to Gliwice, in southern Poland. However, the number of projects that were expected to begin has not even reached one quarter of the total expected for 2003. This poor record has drawn fierce criticism from many quarters, especially the Polish media, while the government has lamented the slow pace of launching many projects.
In an attempt to curb dissatisfaction, LM pointed out that it couldn't take all the blame for the lack of progress. "Projects can fail for many reasons," said LM's offset director, Phillip Georgariou earlier this year. "The business climate changes, companies go bankrupt, the law changes and taxes go up."
While voices of both praise and dissention abound, one thing seems sure: the links between the U.S. and Poland have grown. The question is: have they grown stronger?
We need to eliminate visa-waiver altogether, not add more countries to the list.
No. We need to drop countries like France and possibly Germanany that have large numbers of unassimilated Muslim nationals and add ones that don't and that are our real allies like Poland.
We should be assertively expanding our relationship with the Poles, shift our support from those who figuratively bite the hand that feeds them, to those who appreciate it.
I agree we should be rewarding Poland for its support (want some Army and Air Force bases?), but even for our most trusted allies, visa-waiver doesn't make sense in a post-9/11 world.
How about the DV Lottery program, whereunder you bar some countries from participation and let almost all muslim countries participate under the pretence of "diversity"? This is official program whose criteria make absolutely no sense "in a post-9/11 world".
At least DV participants are subject to screening. I can't say I'm thrilled with the program, but it's more secure than visa-waiver is.
OK then.
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