Posted on 12/21/2004 10:21:35 AM PST by OESY
LOS ANGELES, Dec. 19 - Are movies growing bigger as theater audiences are becoming smaller?
That's one conclusion to draw from the box-office results of 2004, as Hollywood pursued its penchant for big-budget event films - from Warner Brothers' "Troy" to 20th Century Fox's "I, Robot," to Sony Pictures' "Spider-Man 2" - but the number of moviegoers in the United States dropped for the second year in a row.
With nearly two weeks to go before the end of 2004, domestic box-office receipts appeared likely to top last year's total of $9.27 billion, nearing $9.4 billion, according to Exhibitor Relations, which tracks the figures.
But an increase can be attributed to a rise in ticket prices, up 3.85 percent to an average of $6.25, while attendance fell by 2.25 percent this year after dropping 3.8 percent in 2003.
That audience drop appeared especially troubling in a year in which Mel Gibson's controversial "The Passion of the Christ," distributed by Newmarket Films, brought many new moviegoers into the megaplexes and finished No. 3 at the domestic box office with $370.3 million in ticket sales, while Michael Moore's anti-Bush hit documentary "Fahrenheit 9/11," from Lions Gate Films, became a magnet for political activists and sold $119.2 million in tickets.
"If you took the half-billion dollars of 'Fahrenheit 9/11' and 'Passion' out of the marketplace, we'd be in a real dismal situation, and they barely got distribution," said Paul Dergarabedian, Exhibitor Relations president, referring to behind-the-scenes struggles that ultimately landed both films with independent distributors.
As the audience shrank, budgets continued to spiral upward, with blockbuster movies commonly costing upward of $140 million to produce, followed by tens of millions of dollars in marketing expenses.
Several expensive studio sequels were among the year's top performers, including the top-ranked "Shrek 2," which had $441 million in domestic ticket sales and $886 million worldwide for DreamWorks; "Spider-Man 2," which placed second in the United States with nearly $374 million at the domestic box office and nearly $784 million worldwide for Sony; and "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban," which ranks fourth with almost $250 million in domestic ticket sales and $790 million worldwide for Warner.
Blockbuster projects that did not find audiences included Warner's "Catwoman," starring Halle Berry; Walt Disney Company's "Hidalgo" and "The Alamo"; and Universal's "Chronicles of Riddick."
In the middle ground Warner's computer-animated "Polar Express" continues to play despite a disappointing debut, with about $124 million in domestic ticket sales, while Universal's vampire epic "Van Helsing" stopped short at $120 million and Disney's "King Arthur" took in just $52 million at the domestic box office.
Studio executives pointed out that expensive event films had strong international appeal and continued to find audiences in the thriving DVD marketplace.
"The U.S. theatrical market is a mature business, unlike the international marketplace, which is breaking records with box office and attendance," said Dan Fellman, president of theatrical distribution for Warner Brothers. "That's where the expansion is taking place,"
But others acknowledged that many of the most profitable movies this year were medium-budget comedies and horror films that cost relatively little, and nonetheless grabbed the audience. They included Universal's "Along Came Polly," a Ben Stiller comedy that cost about $42 million and took in $171 million at the box office around the world; "The Grudge," a Japanese-inspired horror film, which had an astounding $124 million in worldwide ticket sales after Sony bought it for $10 million; and Fox's "DodgeBall: A True Underdog Story," another Ben Stiller comedy that cost $20 million and took in $166 million around the world.
This weekend "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," another big-budget film from DreamWorks and Paramount, opened strongly at $30.2 million.
Sony's comedy "Spanglish," directed by James L. Brooks, opened to unenthusiastic business, taking in $9 million on 2,400 screens, while Fox's "Flight of the Phoenix," starring Dennis Quaid, took in just $5.2 million on 2,600 screens. Miramax's sweeping drama "The Aviator," from the director Martin Scorsese, opened on 40 screens and took in $831,000.
"Meet the Fockers," a comedy from DreamWorks and Universal, is one major film left to open this year. It could break $100 million at the box office, according to market research by the National Research Group.
Some industry experts suggested that the trend toward high budgets for epic, effects-heavy films would come under new scrutiny as a result of this year's performance pattern.
"It's not that the grosses are getting smaller, it's that the budgets are getting bigger," said Bob Weinstein, co-chairman of Miramax Films. "You cannot have that rise in production and marketing costs of 20 and 30 percent each year, even though attendance is down. Your gross is only going up 2 or 3 or 4 percent."
But executives at major studios, all heavily invested in making blockbusters, disputed this notion.
Jim Gianopulos, co-chairman of Fox, said that despite the success of smaller genre pictures, studios still needed to maintain the diversity on their slates, which includes so-called tentpole pictures, meaning movies that draw a broad audience. Fox has several coming up next year, including the animated "Robots," Ridley Scott's "Kingdom of Heaven" and the last installment of the "Star Wars" saga.
"You can't only make one kind of movie," Mr. Gianopulos said. "The key is not the type of movie you make, but the manner you go about deciding what to make. Is it fresh? Is it original? Does it have a vision? Who is it for? And how many of those people are there?"
Chuck Viane, president of distribution for Disney's Buena Vista unit, agreed. "If all you try to hit are doubles, I don't believe you can hit a home run," he said.
Sony will end 2004 with the largest domestic market share, with an estimated $1.3 billion in ticket sales. Warner Brothers is expected to be second with an estimated $1.1 billion, followed by Disney - supported by the Pixar-produced hit, "The Incredibles" - which expects to end the year slightly behind Warner Brothers.
Buoyed by "Shrek 2" and "Shark Tale," DreamWorks took in $924 million despite its limited slate of pictures. Meanwhile Fox and Universal fell at the middle of the market-share pack, with Fox having a strong early part of the year and summer, but lacking films to hold the box office through the end of the year. Universal, meanwhile, stumbled through the summer, but made up ground with movies like "The Bourne Supremacy" and the anticipated hit "Meet the Fockers."
Paramount was dogged by a series of box-office flops and lagged far behind the other studios. It is expected to end the year at a domestic total over $550 million.
Gotta put a plug in for Ghostbusters as well. I saw that one four times in the theater. :) Murray, Ackroyd, and Ramis at their absolute apex.
Now it is affecting their pocket book. Maybe it will give them time to read up on things and study. Knowledge is power......
Actors may know how to read, but except for a few, do not know how to critically evaluate what they read.
Thankfully, that responsibility is left to the directors and others who are trained to interpret and frequently get it wrong too. Put it this way: great performances are the result of accidents.
Exactly. Movies that make the most money are usually teenager driven. TPOTC was unique. Though there are exceptions, great movies generally don't cost a lot...or make a lot.
Don't you mean "even though", not "because"? The "King Arthur" movie bears the same relationship with history as Michael Jackson has with family values.
I only saw The Incredibles. It was pretty good....
And let's not forget video rental and sales, and pay and TV rights.
These ALL probably made a profit. Don't think for a second that there were bombs here financially. The reporter is just doing what MSM reporters do: being stupid and ignoring a big consideration to score points as a cynic.
Can you envision a two hour Capital One commercial ?
BUMP
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