Allawi Front Runner to Lead Iraq After Election
By REUTERS
Published: December 17, 2004
Filed at 9:27 a.m. ET
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi may return to power with American blessing after next month's election, even if he does not score a major victory at the ballot box.
Iraqi officials say it is too early to predict who will be the country's next prime minister, but privately suggest that Allawi, a secular Shi'ite heading a list that includes several ministers from the U.S.-backed government, is considered the front runner if he wins a seat in the new National Assembly.
Allawi's return could mean more use of force to try to crush Sunni Muslim rebels and an economic policy that seeks production sharing deals with foreign firms to develop Iraq's oil fields.
``There is simply no one else on whom the assembly could reach consensus. Kurds would rather deal with Allawi than an Islamist Shi'ite, so would Sunnis. We also realize an Islamist Shi'ite prime minister is a red line for the Americans,'' said a senior official from a leading Shi'ite party.
``The Americans, the Kurds, and Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani have red lines and Allawi is positioned to take advantage.''
A Shi'ite election list drawn up under the auspices of Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shi'ite cleric, is expected to win most seats in the Jan. 30 election.
Candidates on Sistani's list include Islamist, secular and some independent candidates, but not Allawi. Its leaders have said they will seek consensus in the 275-member assembly, which will appoint a new government and have one year to draft a permanent constitution.
Under the postwar election system, Iraq will be treated as a single electoral district. The electorate will vote for lists of candidates and names high on the lists will have the best chances of winning seats in the assembly.
STRONGMAN
While some admire Allawi as a U.S.-backed strongman who could bring stability, violence has continued and Iraq has been hit by a fuel and electricity crisis during his term.
A U.S. official, who declined to be named, said he did not know of a deal to bring Allawi back, but said it was clear any Iraqi prime minister would have to be palatable to Washington.
Western diplomats in Baghdad say Allawi is Washington's favorite. But U.S. officials have been careful not to make their choice public for fear of tainting both Allawi, who worked with American intelligence during years in exile, and Iraq's much-touted transition to democracy.
``American officials frankly tell us they favor Allawi,'' one senior diplomat said. ``But his return is unlikely to help stem the violence. He has obviously not talked enough with the Sunnis, who are outside the election anyway.''
Among other names being touted in Baghdad are former nuclear scientist Hussein al-Shahristani and Finance Minister Adel Abdul Mehdi, who are in the top ten on Sistani's list.
But Mehdi's colleagues say his membership in the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a Shi'ite party founded in Iran in 1982, limits his chances, especially given Washington's increasingly hardline tone toward Tehran, which it considers part of an ``axis of evil.''
Sistani likes Shahristani. But the former exile remains a relative unknown in Washington and Iraq's defense minister, allied to Allawi, this week accused him of being an Iranian agent. Other politicians dismissed that charge as ridiculous.
